Week 12: Michigan State
Recapping Week 11 at Illinois and previewing Week 12 vs. Michigan State
Week 12 Statistical Preview
Keys to Indiana’s game vs. Michigan State
Indiana could find success in the passing game this week. MSU ranks 97th in allowed passing success and doesn’t have a single secondary defender (CB or S) inside the Big Ten top-50 in coverage. The Hoosiers’ offensive gameplan this week needs to be pass-first to set up the run, which means lots of Donaven McCulley and EJ Williams (if Omar Cooper isn’t back).
Michigan State’s offense has the 4th-worst EPA/play in the country, meaning it’s even worse than Indiana’s. The Spartans have eclipsed 200 passing yards just four times against FBS opponents and only once with current QB Katin Houser, who is graded second-worst among all Big Ten QBs with at least 100 dropbacks. However, Indiana did just surrender 507 passing yards to a Ball State transfer QB who was ranked outside the top-2000 high school prospects in 2018 and was granted his first Power 5 start at the 11th hour before throwing for more yards than any Illinois QB in 43 years. So Michigan State could plan to throw Saturday. But I’d expect them to run first with Nate Carter, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry this season and facing an Indiana defense that has surrendered more than 100 yards rushing against every FBS opponent it’s played this year.
Brendan Sorsby is a Solid QB
Since being named starter before Week 8, Brendan Sorsby is second in the Big Ten in dropbacks (104). In that time, he is second in passing yards (685), first in passing touchdowns (7), fourth in turnover-worthy plays (2) – behind four QBs with fewer than 50 dropbacks – and graded 6th in PFF’s Offensive Grade. He also leads all Big Ten QBs in rushing yards (129) and rushing TDs (3) in those four weeks. His season-long QBR (62.5) is now 5th in the conference. His best two games were on the road (at Penn State, at Illinois) when he combined for 35-for-52 (67.3%) for 558 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs. In those games, by QBR, he was the 4th-best and 6th-best QB in the country to lose those games. Lastly, in those two games, PFF grades Sorsby as the 29th-best QB in the nation.
He’s not perfect, but he’s more than Indiana could have asked for, especially given the chaos schematically and within the walls of Memorial Stadium this season.
Donaven McCulley has Ascended
There is a clear connection between Sorsby and Donaven McCulley (and I’d add Rod Carey in there too). Since Sorsby was named starter, McCulley is graded as the 27th-best WR in the country, ranks sixth in the conference in targets (21), and is tied for 4th nationally in receiving TDs (4). He’s now risen to a season-long grade ranking 6th among Big Ten WRs. Notably, McCulley is tied for 6th (with Omar Cooper!) in contested catches.
It’s safe to say he’s, rather amazingly, ascended to a top-8 WR in the conference (if not higher), which has been arguably the most enjoyable part of the season for Indiana fans.
Indiana Cornerbacks Finally Tested
Indiana’s three lead CBs – Kobee Minor, Nic Toomer, Jamari Sharpe – have combined for 75 targets this season. 16 of those came against Illinois, and 13 more came against Maryland – the only two teams to test the IU secondary with fidelity. In the other 8 games, the CBs were targeted a combined 46 times, an average of 5.75 targets per game (roughly 2 targets per CB each game). Against Illinois, those three CBs allowed catches on 14 of 16 targets for 290 yards, 6 yards after the catch per reception, and just 1 forced incompletion. Among Big Ten CBs (100+ coverage snaps), Indiana’s CBs are graded 21st (Minor), 25th (Sharpe), and 37th (Toomer).
What’s stopping Michigan State or Purdue from throwing against this defense, regardless of their own offensive precedents, when Indiana’s defense has surrendered a combined 852 passing yards and 9 passing TDs against the only two teams that committed to a passing gameplan against it?
Once Again, Indiana’s Pass Rush is Ineffective
In 2022, Indiana’s pass rush was graded 129th in the country. After Week 11 in 2023, it’s graded 104th. Through 12 games last season, Indiana’s top-4 edge rushers (Alfred Bryant, Dasan McCullough, James Head, Beau Robbins) totaled 74 QB pressures, and so far through 10 games this season, Indiana’s top-4 edge rushers (Andre Carter, Lanell Carr, Anthony Jones, Myles Jackson) have totaled 50 QB pressures. Carter was one of the most coveted pass rushers in the portal, and at Indiana, he’s currently ranked 39th in PFF's pass rush productivity metric and 30th in win percentage among Big Ten DEs with 50+ pass rushes. Carr is 29th and 28th, respectively, in those categories.
Aaron Casey is on pace to replicate last season’s pass-rush productivity, and Jacob Mangum-Farrar has already matched the QB pressure applied by the No. 2 LBs in 2022. Both are top-7 among Big Ten LBs in this metric, which is great. But one would think more havoc along the defensive line would free up responsibility from the LBs in this phase, especially on passing downs and in true pass sets.
In true pass sets against Illinois – the lowest-graded pass-blocking OL in the conference – Indiana pressured the QB just 7 times and hit the QB just twice, neither time by a DE. This certainly didn’t make the secondary’s job any easier, as John Paddock had more than 2.5 seconds to throw on 50% of his dropbacks.
If one wanted to be reductive, they might say that Indiana’s defense specializes in plugging gaps (graded 46th nationally in run defense by PFF) and nothing else, even though, yes, Indiana still allows more rushing yards per game than any Big Ten team.
Notable Snap Counts
It’s safe to say, at this point, that it’s a split backfield between Josh Henderson (44 snaps) and Trent Howland (39 snaps) and that Jaylin Lucas (19 snaps) is primarily a decoy or a victim of terribly designed option runs.
Indiana continues to give its TEs a ton of snaps (3 above 20 snaps this week), primarily for run-blocking purposes, but all three regular TEs – Trey Walker, Bradley Archer, James Bomba – are graded 30th, 31st, and 32nd among all Big Ten TEs (50+ blocking snaps) in run blocking. That is extremely bad for the talent being kept off the field each play for those TEs.
Louis Moore continues to be a huge contributor to the defense. He and Dunnam are graded as the 11th- and 14th-best safeties in the conference.
JoJo Johnson was in for 1 snap, and on that one snap, he surrendered the massive touchdown down the left sideline when he confused the defenses coverage on the play and believed he had safety help.
With Sorsby at QB, how do we get beat by the 97th worse secondary in the country? Or, the second worse QB in the conference? Because our DBs are not good at all as your stats tell. But, also pressure on opponents QB is down as well. Not surprised at our 3-8 record.
Sorsby and McCauley I fear may head to the portal given their ascension in the conference rankings. Hope I’m wrong.
Perhaps a coaching change is in the offing. Allen sounds like a desperate individual in all his pressers of late.