Bison Bites: Dispatch #3
Data bites touching on: Indiana and JMU defensive explosiveness, Indiana MBB predicted BPR gained in the transfer portal, and the Indiana Fever are one of the worst teams in WNBA history so far.
Before getting to the Bison Bites, if you missed some football recruiting analysis notes I shared earlier today – primarily on the topic of June visitors and general June recruiting – you can view them in the BSB Chat here.
James Madison ranked 44th in percentage of opponent drives that averaged 10+ yards per play (12.8%).
JMU was stellar on defense in 2023, ranking 12th nationally in EPA per play allowed. Even within yards per play allowed, JMU was effective, ranking 20th.
However, it is clear that defensive explosiveness was a bit of an issue. JMU blanketed offenses, ranking 21st and 17th in drives allowed with averages of 4+ yards per play and 7+ yards per play, respectively. Then, as noted above, that jumps to 44th in 10+ yards averaged. In addition, JMU ranked 129th in College Football Data’s explosiveness stat (EPA per successful play).
Part of this is because when plays were explosive against JMU, they were very explosive.
Source: cfbstats.com
As seen in the chart above, JMU was effective at keeping plays within 20 yards and decently effective at keeping them within 30 yards, but plays longer than 30 yards were not a rarity against the JMU defense, in relation to all other FBS defenses. As you can see, long passing plays weren’t necessarily uncommon.
That is a somewhat universal concern with the defensive approach of attacking from the inside shoulder, meaning DTs get penetration and the defense pushes plays to the boundaries. It’s a great way to create havoc (JMU was 2nd nationally in defensive havoc in 2023), but if fundamentals slip or DEs aren’t effective – against Big Ten competition no less – defenses can pay. Just something to watch.
Indiana MBB ranks 16th in total predicted 2024-25 BPR from the transfer portal.
Indiana’s total predicted gained BPR (according to EvanMiya.com) is 18.05. That is 3rd in the Big Ten behind USC and Michigan, who are 4th and 5th respectively. Louisville and Kentucky (1st and 2nd) lead the country. Kansas is 18th.
Indiana’s incoming transfers rate as follows:
Oumar Ballo: 3rd, 7.22
Myles Rice: 69th, 4.38
Kanaan Carlyle: 150th, 3.38
Luke Goode: 171st, 3,20
Langdon Hatton: 961st, -0.14
This is a fairly steep deviation from 247Sports’ transfer portal rankings, which have Indiana 2nd and Louisville 26th. Much of the dissonance is due to sizes of transfer classes, as Louisville has added 12 transfers this offseason. After accounting for class size, Indiana is 22nd (4th in the Big Ten).
The difference between predicted BPR and the 247Sports recruiting rankings is most likely due to the fact that they’re measuring two different things: 247Sports is measuring talent and potential, while predicted BPR is more of a measure in production.
**To define BPR (Bayesian Performance Rating): EvanMiya.com describes the stat as “the ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he’s on the floor” and is calculated by “the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent the player’s team is expected to be if the player were on the court with 9 other average players.” Essentially, high number equals good!
The Indiana Fever have the 2nd-worst defensive rating ever.
If you think the Fever have been tough to watch so far this season, it’s because they are currently one of the worst teams ever documented by Her Hoops Stats (since 1997, the WNBA’s first season).
Out of 352 team-season combinations (for example, the 2024 Indiana Fever), the Fever rank 351st in defensive rating, only bested by themselves in 2020. Even the Washington Mystics, who earned their first win of the season Tuesday, rank 271st on that list. The Fever are also 348th (5th-worst ever) in margin of victory, losing by 12.2 points per game.