Assessing IU 3-point shooting after 10 games
This was a huge question mark for the Hoosiers to start the season, so how has it looked so far?
Indiana’s recent struggles from three have always confounded me. I long to watch a team that had two players in the top-100 or top-200 three-point shooters, but it’s been a long, long time since then.
We’ve all seen the three-point shooting this season. Sometimes it comes in excess (Nebraska), and sometimes it keeps Indiana close without getting it over the hump (Arizona). But it hasn’t seemed to quite strike the balance needed to feel great about IU’s capabilities behind the arc for the rest of the season. It certainly hasn’t been enough to draw defenses out of the paint either. Those notes are all difficult to quantify but must be stated before this column.
Even though it’s not nearly what it was in the past, Indiana has shown improvement from three, so I wanted to quantify what the Hoosiers have done through 10 games. Maybe it’s premature, but the last three games suggest otherwise.
Assessing three-point shooting
This was (and has been for several years now) a central question coming into the season: How would Indiana perform from behind the arc and, therefore, prove itself shooting the basketball? Could it?
In simple raw data, Indiana is performing better from behind the arc than in recent seasons. It’s hit 10-plus threes on four (4) different occasions this season already. The following are the number of times the Hoosiers hit 10-plus threes in a game during recent seasons:
2021-22: 4
2020-21: 2
2019-20: 1
2018-19: 3
2017-18: 2
Race Thompson hit four against Arizona! Race. Thompson.
With that being said, though, Indiana is 90th in the country in 3-point percentage, with 36.4%. No one in or around the program would suggest that that’s enough, but again, this is where the Hoosiers were in that regard throughout the last five seasons:
2021-22: 216th (33.3%)
2020-21: 245th (32.4%)
2019-20: 219th (32.6%)
2018-19: 317th (31.2%)
2017-18: 315th (32.2%)
For better or worse, the improved numbers from three aren’t simply because Indiana is taking more threes so far this season. Only 32.2% of IU’s shots are from three, which ranks 299th in the country and second-to-last in the Big Ten. This is essentially where Indiana has been since 38.7% of its shots came from three in 2016-17 (a.k.a. Before Archie Miller). Indiana is simply making more of the shots it puts up.
Despite the low volume of threes, it’s become fairly clear that Indiana is going to push itself from three when the pressure is on. In its last three games (Rutgers, Nebraska, Arizona), Indiana has shot 25 three-point attempts in each game. That is 43.1% of its shots, which would rank about 60th in the country among season-long averages this season. It appears that this is closer to the team’s identity than once thought earlier in the year.
For anyone who’s watched the games, it’s obvious the improvement is primarily coming from Miller Kopp and Tamar Bates. Kopp’s KenPom.com offensive rating is 30th in the country while Bates’ is 83rd. For reference, Trayce Jackson-Davis’ is 47th. This largely stems from their ability to hit threes, which Kopp is doing better at the moment than he has during any single season of his career. So are Xavier Johnson, Trey Galloway, and Bates. Galloway has already matched his total from last season (6) and is six away from doubling his career total.
What might make Indiana fans feel better in regards to three-point shooting is if it felt more sustainable, since Kopp saw regression in his shot over the last two seasons and Bates is coming off the bench as a sophomore. Is there a reality where all of the following are true without costing the offense too many possessions? 1.) Kopp is shooting above 40%. 2.) Bates is shooting and playing like one of the best Sixth Men in the conference. 3.) Johnson (2-for-14 from three in his last four games) finds a medium. 5.) Thompson and Galloway connect on about one three per game between the two of them. This is excluding Jalen Hood-Schifino, who hasn’t shown exactly what he’s consistently capable of at this level yet, given he’s only played seven games.
As Indiana works toward something of that sort, the Big Ten season approaches with six other teams inside the top-60 (nine inside the top-100) in defense against three-point shooting.
Regardless, Indiana didn’t gain much from newcomers between Mike Woodson’s first and second seasons (that is until CJ Gunn develops), but it developed the shooters already on the roster. Now, it seems Woodson and his staff are willing to give those shooters the green light as they determine exactly how the three can help them in the long-term.
There are a few issues with this offense that run deeper than three-point shooting, and Indiana isn’t shooting the lights out from three (IU ranks 13th in the Big Ten in points gained by threes), but with time and commitment, this type of improvement could make other things easier, even if it’s marginally easier. The Hoosiers are already 15th in the country in 2-point field goal percentage (58%), so adding a 3-point threat would be an encouraging sign heading deeper into the conference season.
How does this help with Kansas?
Kansas is simply strong all-around, rated 14th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency, and it allows the 35th-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage. Scoring anywhere on Kansas will be difficult.
However, Kansas’ only loss was against Tennessee, which is ranked 216th in 3-point percentage, and the Volunteers connected on 12 threes in that game. Since then, teams have shot 24%, 21%, and 30% from three against Kansas. In these last four games, Kansas has allowed all of its opponents to score above 40% from the field.
Most of Indiana’s chances will likely come inside, given recent history, but if Kansas does as most teams do against Indiana (play close to the post), Kopp, Bates, Johnson (and Race Thompson?) will be critical in keeping the Jayhawks honest. The numbers show that they have the capability to do that, which is more than Indiana fans could expect in the last half-decade.
And if what Haslametrics estimate (a 76-69 loss for Indiana) proves to be indicative, the Hoosiers are going to need some threes.