Bison Bites: Dispatch #12

Data bites touching on: Fernando Mendoza's accuracy, Jonathan Brady's sure-handedness and versatility, Derek Owings' raise, and Indiana's intrinsic approach to recruiting in 2026.

If you’re new enough to Bite-Sized Bison, you might not be familiar with Bison Bites. Each dispatch of Bison Bites is intended to be a quick-hitting list of approximately 3-5 statistics of interest between typical Bite-Sized Bison posts.

---

Fernando Mendoza was 8th among Power Four QBs in turnover-worthy play rate on deep passes (20+ yards) in 2024.

Pro Football Focus wrote a recent blog post about the 10 QBs to watch for in next season’s NFL Draft class, and new Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza made the cut. There have also been several early projections that place Mendoza in the First Round of the 2026 NFL Draft, including Dane Brugler at The Athletic (No. 27 to the LA Rams).

In PFF’s piece, it noted that Mendoza recorded the 12th-lowest uncatchable pass rate among Power Four QBs, but it added that his tendency to put the ball in harm’s way needs to improve.

Not only does this bit of analysis not make much sense, but this fairly general critique does not get to the heart of what Mendoza needs to put on tape for Indiana in 2025 – deep-ball passing accuracy.

First, two other QBs on the same list (LaNorris Sellers and Carson Beck) had higher overall turnover-worthy play rates than Mendoza in 2024, and Mendoza recorded the 9th-most dropbacks among returning QBs, mostly because that was the only way Cal could move the ball.

Primarily, though, much of Cal’s offensive struggles point to its woes on the offensive line. The program has lost five RBs to the portal for a reason, and part of the reason is that the Golden Bears’ OL ranked 115th in run-blocking and 69th in pass-blocking (via PFF). This is with a scheme intended to take pressure off the offensive line! Mendoza experienced the 4th-most dropbacks under pressure among returning P4 QBs and owned the 3rd-highest pressure-to-sack ratio. One could assume that situation will improve at Indiana, where Kurtis Rourke – running a very similar offensive scheme to Cal’s – experienced the 3rd-lowest pressured-dropback rate among P4 QBs in 2024.

With this in mind: Corey Kinnan at Daft on Draft – read his scouting piece on Fernando Mendoza here – does a bit of nice data analysis on QB draft classes (particularly with on-target percentage) and found that Mendoza owns the best weighted on-target percentage among the anticipated top-10 QBs in the 2026 NFL Draft class. His weighted on-target percentage – which weighs each pass based on its targeted area of the field – for 2024 was 68%. For reference, Kurtis Rourke’s was 60% (The injuries! I know, I know, but it still matters.).

According to Kinnan, Mendoza’s raw on-target percentage was 80.5%! Here is how his on-target rate plays out at each area of the field:

• Short: 172-of-200 (86%)

• Over the Middle: 40-of-51 (78%)

• Outside the Numbers: 27-of-37 (73%)

• Deep: 12-of-24 (50%)

He is one of the most accurate passers in the last handful of NFL Draft classes.

Now, with that said, given his situation at Cal, the only way Mendoza was pushing the ball downfield was with a prayer. The chart below shows Mendoza’s attempt rate by depth of target versus Rourke’s.

What is clear is that Mendoza lived at depths much shorter than Rourke in 2024. That is primarily by nature of the schemes. Indiana used its short game to set up looks for longer passes, and this often worked (3rd-highest offensive success rate nationally), but Cal had no such success, with the 85th offensive success rate and a pass-heavy RPO scheme. Largely, their offensive coordinator wasn’t Mike Shanahan. Mendoza was often forcing passes downfield, which to be fair, 5 of his 16 TDs were of 20+ yards. Cal’s offensive success was completely tied to Mendoza’s fire.

It’s those deep passes, where Mendoza already ranks 3rd-lowest in attempt rate among P4 QBs, that can be dangerous for the Cal transfer. To be clear, his on-target rate (according to Kinnan) at this depth is higher than QBs like Carson Beck, Nico Iamaleava, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier, and Arch Manning, but it’s the off-target passes that are of concern. While only 1 resulted in an interception, Mendoza made 5 turnover-worthy plays 20+ yards downfield, which earned a rate that ranked 8th-highest among P4 QBs.

Getting Mendoza in a more controlled, intentional environment would certainly seem to offer a breath of fresh air, and it might skew the deep ball tendencies toward success rather than inconsistency. We will undoubtedly see more deep passes from Mendoza than he threw at Cal, so will the increased volume continue to carry that same turnover-worthy rate (10.2%), or will there be marked improvement in this department?

That will affect not only Mendoza’s draft stock but Indiana’s on-field success as well.

Jonathan Brady has dropped 3 passes in his career (149 targets).