Bison Bites: Dispatch #7

Data bites touching on: Kurtis Rourke's insane efficiency, Indiana's sudden improvement in relation to other programs, and Indiana beating up on its schedule

If you’re new enough to Bite-Sized Bison, you might not be familiar with Bison Bites. Each dispatch of Bison Bites is intended to be a quick-hitting list of approximately 3-5 statistics of interest between typical Bite-Sized Bison posts. This is the first mid-season edition!

---

Kurtis Rourke is spinning up a Heisman candidacy

Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has been everything Indiana could’ve hoped for when he committed to the program in December. He’s never been this efficient (71.8% completion rate; 5th nationally), never pushed the ball downfield this consistently (10.1 yards per attempt, 2nd nationally; 10.1 average depth of target, 23rd nationally), and never been pressured less (58 pressured dropbacks; 2nd nationally). He was given a golden opportunity with OC Mike Shanahan and QB coach Tino Sunseri, and against Ohio State, Rourke will most likely break into the top-10 list of passing seasons in Indiana Football history, passing Babe Laufenberg’s 1982 season of 2,468 yards. At 21 passing touchdowns with two games remaining in the regular season, he is also in the hunt to break Kellen Lewis’ all-time record of 28 in 2007.

The interesting fact about Rourke’s brilliance in this offense is that it was never going to result in gaudy numbers. He is only used on 41% of Indiana’s offensive plays, which ranks 105th among FBS QBs, and he ranks 65th in attempted passes. To the surprise of many (coming into the season), Indiana actually ranks 24th in rushing attempts. So Rourke has to make every dropback count. And he has, with an FBS-leading 0.43 EPA/play.

Rourke is currently in legendary company within this metric (EPA/dropback since 2014). He ranks 12th among every QB to record at least 200 dropbacks. The issue is that 200 dropbacks isn’t that many dropbacks. Mike Penix threw 220 passes in six games in 2020. So I drew a comparison to Dillon Gabriel in 2023 (384 attempts), which if Rourke continues at his efficient pace through at least the next three games, he could come within comparable territory. That would be insane value to match, as Gabriel threw for more yards at Oklahoma in 2023 (3,660) than any Indiana QB has ever thrown for and had a 30-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. While that sheer production is likely out of reach for Rourke, his efficiency is the difference.

Some other observations from that chart:

• 2019 Tua Tagovailoa, who started the majority of a season where Alabama appeared in the National Championship, is a very good comparison to current Kurtis Rourke. He graded as the 4th-best QB by PFF that season, completing 71.4% of his passes for 2,838 yards and a 33-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio on just 252 attempts in 9 games. Rourke sits at 71.8% for 2,410 yards and a 21-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio on 238 attempts in 9 games.

• 2020 Mike Penix had plenty of moments, including the pylon stretch against Penn State and 491 passing yards against Ohio State (2nd-most ever by an Indiana QB during a single game). But his relatively low EPA/dropback value is further evidence toward just how inefficient that offense really was.

• 2015 Nate Sudfeld is better comparison to Kurtis Rourke than some might remember. Sudfeld was the 7th-least pressured QB in the country and had an effective rushing attack with two thousand-yard rushers in Jordan Howard and Devine Redding. However, Sudfeld threw significantly more often than Rourke, and it resulted in the most passing yards by an Indiana QB in program history (3,573).

• 2019 Joe Burrow was simply insane. He completed 76.3% of his 527 passes for nearly 5,700 yards, 60 TDs, and just 6 INTs. We may never see something like that again. Oh, and Kurtis Rourke is one spot above Burrow in EPA/dropback currently!

Here’s a look at where Rourke sits next to QB Heisman winners since 2014.

I don’t believe Rourke will win the Heisman Trophy. Ashton Jeanty at Boise State is simply amazing, and Travis Hunter is a 1-of-1 athlete at Colorado. But for an award that has gone to 8 QBs in the last 10 seasons, it’d be tough to find a better QB right now.