Bison Bites: Dispatch #8

Data bites touching on: Big Ten MBB scoring differentials, splitting running game credit in the FBS, and investing in the trenches proving to be wise for Indiana

If you’re new enough to Bite-Sized Bison, you might not be familiar with Bison Bites. Each dispatch of Bison Bites is intended to be a quick-hitting list of approximately 3-5 statistics of interest between typical Bite-Sized Bison posts.

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MBB Scoring Differential in Big Ten Conference Games

As I was watching Indiana take on another early deficit against Michigan State on Tuesday, I wanted to find a way to compare and visualize scoring pace during conference games. The below visualization was the result (completed Wednesday, Feb. 12).

Explainer: Each plot shows scoring differential by minute (1-40) for each Big Ten team during its conference games. The shaded region is constructed by the max (good) scoring differential and the minimum (bad) scoring differential at each minute of a given game. Then the line is the average scoring differential at each minute. The line will show how each team’s trend during a game, and the shaded region conveys a degree of consistency – particularly a consistency to play to any opponent. The figure is sorted by average scoring differential at the end of games.

There is quite a bit of information here, and it’s a visualization meant to sit with for a minute. I’ll start with some observations about Indiana:

• That tendency to start slowly is real. Indiana is last in the Big Ten in average score differential at the end of 10 minutes (-5.2 points). The next worst is Oregon at -2.6. Indiana not only gets off to bad starts, it gets off to abysmal starts when related to other conference teams.

• The tendency to fight back into games should also be credited. The Hoosiers are 7th in the conference in average score differential change (+2.5 points) from the 10th minute to the 30th.

• It’s already been established that Indiana doesn’t start well, but it’s under-12 subs don’t help either. There is a clear downward continuation in average score differential beginning at the 8th minute, following the under-12 substitutions. There isn’t much upward trend until right around the under-8 timeout.

• Those maximums of the shaded region are defined by games against Minnesota, USC, Rutgers, and Penn State. The minimums are defined by massive losses to Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois, as well as the eventual win against Michigan State (as noted above). That win over Michigan State also helped define some of the minimums near the end of MSU’s plot.

Let me know of other observations you might notice (about IU and others) in the comments!

Crediting Rushing Success to RBs and OLs/OCs