Bite-Sized Bison/CrimsonCast 2023 Football Over/Unders (Taylor's Version)

How will Indiana perform in various statistical categories this season? Galen and I took a look four specific props.

Sep 01, 2023

College football is nearly here for Indiana Football fans, so I sat down with Galen Clavio of CrimsonCast to consider four statistical figures and how the Hoosiers will perform in relation.

CrimsonCast also published a similar piece with four other statistical props. Be sure to check those out as well!

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O/U 500 rushing yards (including sack yardage) for Indiana QBs

GC: OVER — I believe the offensive line will be better this year. I also believe that IU wants to use their quarterbacks to run more often. I further believe that the lack of passing acumen among the quarterbacks is going to lead to a lot of completions (hence my guess about going over the pass completion percentage) but not lead to a lot of yardage, since many of those completed passes will be short. If sacks are limited and QB running plays are up, it feels like a pretty safe bet that IU will hit the over on this.

TL: OVER — This is a bit of a shot in the dark because we don’t really know the scheme of the offense, only the tools at its disposal. We also don’t know, given their recent history in QB recruiting, if Walt Bell actually wants to activate a mobile QB, even though he and Tom Allen have said explicitly that they do. It’s also well-documented that Indiana suddenly employed an RPO offense to end the season, and in just 4 (incomplete) games, Dexter Williams accrued 184 rushing yards, even though all QBs combined for just 13, thanks to Connor Bazelak’s sacks. If Tayven Jackson, who ran a 4.97 40-yard dash in 2021, is named the starter, given the scheme he would best fit, I don’t think Indiana hits this number, but if Brendan Sorsby is the starter Week 1, then there’s a good chance Dexter is still the guy. And if he’s still the guy, they might hit 1,000 (just kidding). I have a hunch he’s still the guy.

O/U 16.5 takeaways forced by Indiana’s defense

GC: UNDER — In non-COVID seasons under Tom Allen, IU has averaged 15.6 takeaways. But that’s a misleading number, because this has been an incredibly boom-or-bust statistical category for the Hoosiers in that time. They had 13 takeaways in Allen’s 2017 and 2022 seasons, had 26(!) in 2018, but only had 9 in 2021. The last two years have seen IU average 11 takeaways a year. It’s not impossible that Indiana could have a boom cycle this season, but I wouldn’t put money on it. I think they’ll be in the 15 or 16 range this year, but don’t see them exceeding 16.5.

TL: OVER — In 2020, Indiana led the Big Ten with 20 forced turnovers in just 8 games. That’s 2.5 per game and on pace for 33 total, which would’ve been No. 1 nationally last season! In the 24 games since, Indiana has forced just 22 turnovers. To reach 16.5, they’d need to improve to 1.4 takeaways per game. My reflex is no, Indiana can’t make that improvement; however, 17 takeaways would’ve finished just 9th in the Big Ten last year, and the 4-2-5 is designed to apply pressure. I think Indiana’s emphasis on the defensive line in the portal could improve the lack of pressure and maybe, combined with Matt Guerreri coaching safeties, make this defense more functional.

O/U 1.5 wins in Indiana’s five most winnable Big Ten matchups — Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue

GC: UNDER — Realistically IU should be expected to win at least two of these, simply by the law of averages. But the law of averages rarely stops in Bloomington when it comes to games against teams with similar talent. It’s hard to confidently pick IU in more than one of these games (Rutgers), and even in that case, one has to recall that Rutgers beat IU last year for their only conference win. It feels like many in the IU fan/media verse have written a win against Michigan State down in pen, which only makes me more convinced that the Spartans will come into Bloomington and pull off a victory.

TL: UNDER — This bracket of the schedule (all ranked between 41 and 77 via ESPN SP+) is where Indiana must accrue victories if it should finish favorably. It’s unfortunate, given the uncertainty of these in-conference opponents, that it’s considered optimistic to expect Indiana – currently in Year 7 of the Tom Allen Era – to make a bowl in 2023. Before the last two seasons, I’d have looked at this schedule and assured myself a bowl was in Indiana’s future, but the deterioration of foundational facets of Indiana’s identity (120th in scoring defense, 105th in turnover margin, 112th in rushing offense) makes me doubt the necessary development on a micro level and improvement on a macro level. It also doesn’t help Indiana that just two of these five games are at home.

O/U 39.5 catches by Jaylin Lucas

GC: UNDER — Outside of “Who’s starting at QB?”, the million dollar question of the offense’s offseason has been “How will they get Jaylin Lucas the ball more?” Amazingly under-utilized last year despite his obvious talent, this is one area where Tom Allen has been pretty strident in his statements about using the sophomore in more offensive situations. The big curiosity for me is whether that ends up happening primarily through the air or on the ground. I’m leaning towards the latter, not just because it would fit the general direction the offense is headed, but also because IU has done an awful job of getting pass-catchers the ball. Last year IU had precisely one player surpass the 39.5 receptions mark, the previous year they had two exceed that mark, and the year before that they had one. And all of those players were WRs or TEs. The last time a RB even got close to 39.5 receptions was when Stephen Houston did it…in 2012. Lucas is clearly a special talent and a different player, and the offensive coaching staff has changed a bunch since 2012, but it just doesn’t feel like it’s in Indiana’s football DNA to throw this much to a non-traditional position target.

TL: OVER — If Jaylin Lucas caught 40 passes in 2022, he would’ve had the second-most among Big Ten RBs. It was clear last season that the staff hadn’t carved out a role for Lucas within the playbook and wanted to protect him as a true freshman, and he still caught 16 passes (12th in the Big Ten among RBs). Walt Bell also made it clear he likes to involve RBs in the passing game, as the IU RBs’ 73 targets led any backfield in the conference by a wide margin. I think this is the best way Indiana can get him the ball in space, which has been noted a few times times throughout the offseason as a primary objective. Combine that with the fact that Lucas has worked with WRs in practice and that Chris Turner will get his carries behind Josh Henderson, and I think we will see the ball fed to Lucas more through the air than by handoff.