CFP Top-12 Advanced Statistical Profiles

The College Football Playoff Committee announced its first ranking Tuesday evening. Learn more about the teams included with Indiana!

The College Football Playoff Committee announced its first set of rankings Tuesday evening, and Indiana was included at No. 8. The top-12 is as follows:

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Georgia

4. Miami (FL)

5. Texas

6. Penn State

7. Tennessee

8. Indiana

9. BYU

10. Notre Dame

11. Alabama

12. Boise State

The bracket according to these rankings would look like the bracket depicted below (via Sporting News). You might notice that BYU is No. 4 on the bracket, and that is because, according to the rankings, BYU would be the Big 12 champion and therefore take possession of one of those top-four seeds, which are dedicated to the conference champions. Everyone else seeded 4 through 9 would at least slide down one spot (other teams are affected as well, like Ohio State falling to 5 and Miami jumping to 3). You could interpret this as Indiana technically being seeded No. 9.

For the best Indiana-centric analysis on the CFP rankings out there right now, check out CrimsonCast’s Bison Chat from Tuesday evening, recorded an hour after the rankings were released.

Below are the advanced statistical profiles for each team featured in the bracket. The metrics run very similarly to the typical Bite-Sized Bison Advanced Stat Previews, with strength of schedule and havoc rates added and a few in-the-weeds measures removed.

Some observations:

• Indiana’s remaining strength of schedule (as determined by ESPN FPI) highlights a point of debate, which is if Indiana loses to Ohio State and finishes 11-1, how far does it drop in these rankings? Is that enough to hold out the Hoosiers? Galen discusses that in the linked Bison Chat above.

• If you relate many of the teams’ metrics to their respective strengths of schedule, you can see where there are some vulnerabilities, particularly with Oregon defensively, Miami defensively, Tennessee offensively, Notre Dame offensively, and BYU in general.

• Boise State really does get that Ashton Jeanty Bump. This isn’t doubting them at all, but it’s just very clear in the metrics that Boise’s offense benefits hugely because of that threat.

• Oregon and Notre Dame are ranked 38th and 44th in allowed rushing yards per game, which isn’t terrible, but their allowed rushing success rates are pretty rough, meaning rushing opportunities are frequently there for opponents. To me, that makes both teams fairly unserious in the CFP, unless there’s improvement there. You have to stop the run at that level. BYU is also in this consideration.

• Tennessee’s offense has a pretty rough offensive EPA/play, and they’re also ranked 58th in available yards realized. What this means is that the Volunteers 1.) don’t move the ball that well, but 2.) aren’t breaking from expectation even when they do move the ball (also seen in the low explosion rate). That is a vulnerable team Indiana is currently projected to face.

• Kalen DeBoer’s offense has not performed as well as one would have assumed coming into the season, but the Crimson Tide have played the 11th-toughest schedule.

• Tom Allen’s defense could also certainly be better at Penn State.

The observations above are primarily negative ones because these teams are all good. Poking holes by pointing to vulnerabilities is how we best get to know good teams in college football.

If you’d like to do further research, this chart is very helpful for knowing where to start. Let me know what else you observe, whether in the chart or in your research!

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