CrimsonCast x BSB Over/Unders for 2025 Indiana Football
The Bite-Sized Bison x CrimsonCast collaboration returns for more over/unders predictions going into Indiana Football’s 2025 season!
The Bite-Sized Bison x CrimsonCast collaboration returns for more over/unders predictions going into Indiana Football’s 2025 season! As a result, Taylor and Galen Clavio offer analysis on various points of interest around the program.
The good news is that this edition — the lines that Taylor created and proposed — is just one half! The other half is at CrimsonCast’s Substack, and Taylor and Galen also discussed each of the lines in a CrimsonCast episode, linked inside CC’s over/unders newsletter. When CrimsonCast’s edition is published, it will be linked below. Subscribe to their Substack to receive the other half directly in your inbox!
O/U 39.5 receptions by Indiana tight ends
GC: Under. Only 23 catches by TEs last year? It feels like that was a classic case of “play to your strengths” — and Indiana’s strengths were in their receivers, and Kurtis Rourke’s ability to quickly read defenses. Plus, Zach Horton’s value as a blocker made his utilization in that role more important than nudging him more into the passing game. The Hoosiers went out and added both a catch-first TE and a blocker, and obviously have a new QB under center. While I’d expect the number of catches among TEs to increase by a good amount, I’m still going UNDER on this number — both because of the riches that still exist at WR and the possibility of more catches from the running backs.
TL: Over. The last time Indiana reached this mark was in 2021, when Peyton Hendershot and AJ Barner combined for 60. Since those two, the TE position has seen dark times, until Zach Horton stabilized the role within Shanahan’s offense in 2024, but with only 21 catches. Now, with the additions of Holden Staes and Riley Nowakowski, there should be continued evolution of the position.
At Bite-Sized Bison, I have written about the growing trend of a Move TE (Staes) and a more inline TE (Nowakowski) comprising an increasing number of two-TE sets while maintaining athleticism and dynamism. We will almost certainly see some of this from Shanahan in 2025, as well as a general increase in looks to the TE position in the passing game.
O/U 375 rushing yards for Fernando Mendoza
GC: Under. As much as we’ve heard about Mendoza’s ability to scramble, I don’t expect IU to actually use him in a bunch of designed runs - not in a season when their OL should be able to maintain protection and where Mendoza will have so many skill position players to target through the air. Give me the UNDER on this one, and by a fairly significant margin.
TL: Under. This line essentially delineates between Peyton Ramsey, who ran for 354 yards in 2018, and Tre Roberson, who ran for 423 yards in 2013. There is a lot of excitement around Fernando Mendoza’s mobility and what that can open up in a Mike Shanahan offense that had a one-legged Kurtis Rourke in 2024. Rourke ended the season with just 100 non-sack rushing yards and, to no fault of his own, left a noticeable amount on the table in Shanahan’s RPO offense. Mendoza should take advantage of that, but this would be a significant jump for him in the running game. He hit a career-best 334 non-sack rushing yards in 2024 but was sacked so many times that he ended with just 105 yards.
I’m tempering my expectations for him in the rushing game, for a few reasons:
This offense should have a three-headed RB attack – Roman Hemby, Lee Beebe, and Kaelon Black – that can handle the physical workload of running the ball. The last Indiana QB to reach 375 rushing yards was Tre Roberson in 2013, and it required 85 carries (5.0 yards per carry). That is a lot of carries for Mendoza with the talent in this Indiana backfield. He ran the ball just 52 times last year, excluding sacks (87 times with sacks), and that was in an offense where he was running for his life to make plays. In Bloomington, there should be a much more controlled environment.
Only 60 FBS QBs (31 Power 4 QBs) reached 375 rushing yards in 2024. Since Roberson’s rushing season in 2013, Peyton Ramsey recorded the most rushing yardage for an Indiana QB, with 354 in 2018 (505 non-sack yards). But it’s not that IU hasn’t had athletic QBs; they just haven’t stayed healthy, and that can’t be the case with Mendoza in 2025.
Of Mendoza’s 531 career non-sack rushing yards, only 150 have come via designed carries – the rest via scrambles. It’s not that he can’t execute designed runs; it’s just that he hasn’t needed to (Jadyn Ott in 2023) or been able to (awful OL in 2024). But this is highlighting that Shanahan likely isn’t going to queue up a lot of Mendoza keepers in 2025, especially with so much riding on his arm this season.
I believe Mendoza will stay on Peyton Ramsey’s side of that line and maybe significantly so.
O/U 140 carries for Roman Hemby
GC: Over. I’m a bit more bullish on the OVER for this number. Not only did Hemby get close to this number last year at Maryland, he exceeded it in 2023. Indiana had two backs go over 140 carries last year, and Shanahan’s offense saw Kaelon Black go over 140 carries in 2023 at JMU. I do think this will be somewhat predicated on whether Hemby can get his yards per carry average back up around the 4.7 or higher mark - it dipped last year to 4.53, which would’ve been the worst yards per carry average among any of IU’s running backs last year.
TL: Over. Pulling Roman Hemby from Maryland was an insane move by this program – one I never anticipated Indiana football to execute…until 2024. As a redshirt freshman in 2022, he nearly ran for 1,000 yards (989), but since then, that offensive line has deteriorated – even starting a former DT at guard last year. All the while, Hemby ran the ball 276 more times for 1,287 yards and ranked 10th among Power 4 RBs in receptions last year. He’s the definition of a workhorse, and he’s in Bloomington to get to the NFL. I expect him to get plenty of carries. He has already surpassed 140 carries twice and was six away from the same in 2024, and last season at Indiana, both Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison hit the mark.
Lee Beebe and Kaelon Black are behind him and have plenty of talent for backup RBs, but with Black’s history of injury (eclipsing 200 snaps just once in 2023) and Beebe beginning the season a bit banged up, there should be plenty of space for Hemby to get his 140 – a mark that 51 RBs reached in Power 4 football last season.
O/U 24.5 sacks for Indiana’s defense
GC: Over. After recording 25 sacks in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, IU’s sack production really dropped through the floor:
2020 - 25 (shortened season)
2021 - 17
2022 - 20
2023 - 20
Bryant Haines’s defense recorded 35 sacks in 2024, the most for the Hoosiers in a full season since 2017 — but a drop-off from the 45 sacks that the coaching staff saw under their tutelage at JMU in 2023. Indiana lost quite a bit of that production this offseason (largely due to the graduation of James Carpenter, Jailin Walker, and CJ West) but return Mikail Tamara, who led the team with 10 sacks. With Kamara back, with what are likely to be some unique looks on the defensive line, and with the likelihood that IU’s offense is going to score enough points to push opposing teams into less-than-desirable passing situations, I’ll take the OVER on this one. There should be plenty of opportunities to get this number around or above 30.
TL: Over. Indiana had 25 sacks as a team in 2024, and of the key pass-rushers, it only lost James Carpenter, who somewhat quietly recorded 6.0 sacks. Mikial Kamara – who recorded double-digit sacks at IU for the first time in 15 years – moved over to Stud DE to replace Lanell Carr, while Stephen Daley – the Kent State transfer who ranked 25th in the Group of 5 for QB pressures – will step in at true DE. Throw in the additions of Hosea Wheeler and Kellan Wyatt, and Indiana got significantly better on the edges between seasons.
But more than anything, Bryant Haines introduced a plethora of flexibility and multiplicity to his defensive front through the portal this offseason. He can throw any number of looks at an opposing offense, making life very difficult for opposing QBs. For a front seven that already ranked second in the FBS for havoc rate, that’s a scary prospect. This defensive front might be the overall strength of the team.