Deep Dive: Dequece Carter, a deep-ball god
Indiana adds a deep-ball dimension with this FCS transfer.
I have been extremely intrigued by Dequece Carter, the transfer wide receiver from Fordham, so I did some more digging, and I’ve found more statistical support for the case that he can and will be an immediate contributor for Indiana.
Be prepared for some deep passes from (presumably) Tayven Jackson to Dequeuce Carter in 2023, folks. This guy adds a new dimension to the Indiana offense.
Who is this guy, and is he good?
First, I’ve said it before, but he was one of three receivers at Fordham who recorded more than 1,000 receiving yards and more than 10 touchdowns in 2022 alone. To add to this, Fordham recorded the best receiving grade as a team (90.0) among all FBS and FCS teams. Fordham’s total passing yards (4,974) were more than any FBS team in the country too.
Even before 2022, Carter was a leader in the Fordham receivers room. During his four years with the Rams, he’s played a lot of football, accumulating 1,849 snaps and never recording a PFF Offensive Grade lower than 71.6. His grade in 2022 (80.9) was the best of his career and would’ve ranked 5th among Big Ten wide receivers.
As was mentioned in previous newsletters, Carter caught 54 passes for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns last season (and didn’t lead the team in any of those categories!). In the three previous seasons (2019-2021), Carter did lead Fordham in receiving in each year.
While it is unfair to directly compare numbers between FCS and FBS players, this is simply to add perspective to how good Carter was in 2022.
He had 2.56 yards per route run. Cam Camper had 1.82, and Carter’s number would’ve ranked 6th in the Big Ten.
Carter’s contested catch percentage was 50% (14 targets, 7 catches) last year and 53.8% the year before. AJ Barner had a similar number with 46.2% (13 targets, 6 catches). Camper had 40.9% (22 targets, 9 catches).
He had 8 games in 2022 with at least one catch of 40 yards or more. While it wasn’t necessarily Indiana’s style to throw deep, the Hoosiers had 6 games with completions of 40 yards or more as a team.
There are more stats like this below.
When considering a transfer from the FCS level and below, the first thoughts are 1.) Is this guy really that talented if he wasn’t heavily recruited by FBS schools? and 2.) Can we trust the stats and data because of the strength of his opponents? These are fair questions because, without having watched Fordham play every game, it’s difficult to make a judgment.
As far as talent goes, all we can do is find the information that’s available, which is the following:
6-foot, 196 pounds
DraftScout.com estimates his 40-yard dash time to be anywhere between 4.46 and 4.65 (likely somewhere in the 4.50s). Take that with a grain of salt. This simply shows he’s not the fastest guy.
Somehow was rated as the No. 361 WR coming out of high school (Virginia) in 2019, with offers from Fordham, Appalachian State, and Tulane (not rated as a transfer)
Was Virginia’s 2018 Prep Player of the Year
Ended his high school career as Central Virginia’s all-time leading receiver, with 153 receptions, 2,815 yards and 32 touchdowns, according to The Daily Progress
Broke Fordham’s freshman records for receptions and receiving yards
In an article in his hometown newspaper, The Daily Progress, some of his skills were depicted:
“He’s very quick and has great lateral movement, which makes him an ideal target in the Rams’ offense. ‘They like how I can be a bigger slot receiver,’ Carter said. ‘Someone who can block and break tackles after catching the ball. Also, someone who can contribute early to the program.’”
Even after missing 9 games during his four-year Fordham career due to the pandemic, he finished No. 3 in school history for receiving yards (3.035) and No. 4 in receiving touchdowns (31).
Then there’s this Twitter thread of fantastic catches he’s made during his career at Fordham:
As far as strength of schedule, there’s legitimate concern there for any transfers out of the FCS level. The only way to lump together FBS and FCS teams and defenses is with PFF, which still does not tell the entire story, though their grades are usually solid.
The only FBS teams Fordham has played with Carter at receiver are as follows:
Fordham’s 2022 season signaled a change in philosophy that altered the trajectory of the Rams’ offense entirely and led them to a 10-2 regular season and their first FCS playoff appearance since 2015, though they lost to New Hampshire, 52-42, and Carter had just 1 catch for 51 yards and 1 touchdown.
It was also the first year that Carter was not the team’s leading receiver, as Fotis Kokosioulis (out of eligibility) had an eye-popping year at slot. But Carter still had big performances against good FCS defenses. Against Lafayette, the 66th-best defense among all FBS and FCS teams and the best defense Fordham played all year, Carter caught 6 passes for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against Holy Cross, the 107th-best defense among FBS and FCS teams and the second-best defense Fordham played in 2022, Carter caught 4 passes for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game where Holy cross limited Fordham’s passing.
He’s been doing this for four years at Fordham.
So how did a guy like this go entirely unnoticed to the FBS world and not leave Fordham earlier? Well, likely because of the pandemic. Fordham and the Patriot League only played three games in 2020, after the Patriot League delayed its season three games and before it canceled the rest of its season. Carter had just broken out as a freshman the year before, and while he still caught 19 passes for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, essentially missing an entire season of football is enough to fall off the radar for any higher-level schools. Now he’s getting his chance at IU. If you’re interested in reading more about this situation for Carter, The Daily Progress wrote about his perspective on football, school, and the pandemic, including noting how he focused on his GPA when the season was canceled.
How does he fit at Indiana?
If you read the quote from The Daily Progress above, you might assume that he’s a slot receiver, and at 6-foot, 196 pounds, that wouldn’t be entirely out of the question. Emery Simmons was 6-foot-1, 188 pounds, after all. But, funny enough, he actually didn’t play much slot at Fordham.
In his four years at Fordham, he played 1,630 snaps out wide and 205 at slot. In 2022, he played 715 snaps out wide and 92 at slot.
Now, that hasn’t stopped Indiana before. I wrote in 2022 how Emery Simmons played nearly every snap out wide at North Carolina and then played almost entirely at slot when he got to Indiana. Carter might have the versatility to play at slot and outside, and Indiana has a bit of a hole there, if Jaylin Lucas isn’t there full-time (which it seems like he won’t be).
Carter’s proven skillset suggests that he should be on the outside, though, as he’s a massive big-play threat. He was targeted 20+ yards downfield 41 times in 2022 and recorded a 99.9 PFF Receiving Grade (!!) at that distance. Only 12 other receivers in FBS play achieved that grade at that distance in 2022. His average depth of target was also 21.8 yards, which would be second-best in FBS play. So he catches deep passes.
But he also blocks. He had 334 run-blocking opportunities in 2022, more than any IU receiver last season (even more than tight end AJ Barner, who had 250). That’s also more than all but two Big Ten receivers last year. Now, his run-blocking grade was not good (49.1), but that was a significant drop from his 66.8 in 2021, so he’s at least proven he can do it. Experience in run-blocking is something an offense wants on the perimeter.
And in simpler data, Carter had just 13 targets shorter than 10 yards downfield, and he saw 60 of his 88 targets in 2022 on the left side of the field. That could be a concern moving forward, but he clearly has a comfortable place on the field, while Cam Camper had just one target on that side of the field. It just seems logical that Carter would play outside on the left with Camper on the right.
And with the undoubted pop of Tayven Jackson’s arm, they could be quite the duo.
So there some possible ways this could go:
Since Tom Allen is confident that Cam Camper will be back to start the season, it could be Camper and Carter on the outside with Lucas and maybe Omar Cooper (?) or Jaquez Smith (?) at slot. Andison Coby and Donaven McCulley seem locked to the boundaries.
Or, if EJ Williams shows up to campus and impresses, it could be Williams and Camper on the outside and Carter at slot with Lucas.
Or someone steps up and fills a major hole in the receivers room between the clear starters and the younger talents, forcing Carter out of the slot entirely. There are several unknowns in this room, much like the secondary on the other side of the ball.