Forecasting the 2024 Indiana Defense

What does the data say about Group of Five-to-Power Five transfer turnover on the defensive side and how it relates to the scheme Indiana fans might see in 2024?

As has been noted many times this offseason, Curt Cignetti and his staff have done a fantastic job turning the Indiana roster over on such short notice, but a legitimate question that won’t be answered until the season arrives is how will the Group of Five transfer talent translate to the Power Five – and further yet, the Big Ten? As of today, 18 incoming transfers are from the Group of Five – 9 on the defensive side – and 14 of them were projected to start in Bite-Sized Bison’s projected 2024 depth chart – 8 on the defensive side. This is a foundational consideration for the quality of Indiana’s 2024 season.

So I dove into some data around Group of Five-to-Power Five transfers over the last two seasons and their preceding offseasons (2021-22 and 2022-23) to get an idea of how these transfers might translate for the Hoosiers.

The below data is by no means painting a definite picture of the Indiana 2024 defense. It’s primarily an experiment aiming to set potential frames that Indiana may or may not break with its many Group of Five transfers set to play major roles on the team this upcoming season. There are several factors that make Indiana’s situation unique from the sample of transfers, mainly that Curt Cignetti and his staff pulled 13 transfers from JMU – 10 of which are expected to start at their positions (5 on defense) – which provides some continuity schematically and culturally, but a system and transfer class of this size coming from a Group of Five school to a Power Five school remains fairly unprecedented in college football. So, while this data is informative, it also isn’t a one-to-one translation for how Indiana’s 2024 season could be forecasted. It’s just intended to add further understanding of how talent moves between different levels of college football.

Chart 1

Source: Pro Football Focus, On3

Note: Includes 56 transfers from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 offseasons who played substantial time in their G5 and P5 seasons (300+ snaps; 250+ snaps for DT); 11 CBs, 11 safeties, 11 LBs, 11 DEs, and 12 DTs met the requirements to qualify for this model.

This chart was developed from On3.com’s transfer portal database in conjunction with Pro Football Focus’ Defensive Grade. The sample size is fairly small (56 total transfers), given how little time the transfer portal has been active and abundantly used and because not all Group of Five transfers go on to play substantial time at their respective Power Five programs. Setting the snap minimum at 300 snaps (250 snaps for DTs) ensured there would be a parallel drawn between historic transfers and the Group of Five transfers expected to play major roles in Indiana’s 2024 defense. An additional factor to consider is that many transfers are recruited into systems that maybe aren’t the best fit or might alter what each player is expected to do. Andre Carter, who is noted below, is a good example in that his role in the Indiana DL was different than his role in the Western Michigan DL, which influenced his production and his Defensive Grade.

Some observations:

• The required level of play needed for Group  of Five CBs and DEs to be welcomed into  a substantial Power Five role is higher than the other defensive positions. Even though DE sees a decent dropoff between the levels, it also maintains the highest Power Five quality. The average Power Five grade for this sample (74.6) would’ve finished 56th in the Power Five, just above Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau.

• CB and LB have seen the largest dropoffs between the two levels so far, with safety making the smoothest transition. The safety note is good news for Indiana, which welcomes two Group of Five safety transfers (Terry Jones and Shawn Asbury) expected to be heavily involved, as well as pulling from the safety room for the nickel position. Another point of comfort within this observation is that IU’s Group of Five transfers at CB and LB (D’Angelo Ponds, Aiden Fisher, and Jailin Walker) are all making the jump to Power Five with Bryant Haines and the JMU staff, potentially offering an unusual system continuity that the 22 CB/LB transfers in the sample poll didn’t have. 

• The average LB in this sample ended his Power Five season with a Defensive Grade of just 62.4 – the lowest of the defensive positions – which would’ve ranked 114th in the Power Five in 2024.

• Andre Carter was one of the DEs included in the sample. His Group of Five Grade (80.7) fell 4.3 points to 76.4 in 2023. That was 4th out of the 11 DEs, in terms of change, and the 3rd-best DE Power Five grade in the sample.

• These adjustments are applied to forecast Indiana’s 2024 defensive grades in Chart 3.

Chart 2