Indiana at Cincinnati: Another pivotal game vs. Cincy

The day has come: the #FreeMicahMcFadden game is here. Indiana takes on Cincinnati a year after the Hoosiers vaulted off a cliff as a program, and, once again, this game carries a bison’s load of weight with it. 

Is Indiana, who is graded as the 108th FBS team overall by Pro Football Focus, a lucky team, falling backwards into a 3-0 record? Or can they hang with a Cincinnati team that is, according to PFF grades, equal to Illinois (t-18th and 22nd, respectively)?

Both Las Vegas and analytics say the former is more likely than the latter, as the line favors Cincinnati by 15.5 and ESPN SP+ favors Cincinnati by 22. 

Regardless of the projections, these are some data-based points to watch for in the game Saturday at Cincinnati.

Cam Camper should eat

Cam Camper has quickly become a fan favorite among IU receivers, even though Pro Football Focus doesn’t particularly like him in a vacuum. His size, at 6-foot-2, 202 pounds, necessitates playing time, as he’s one of the only reliable receivers on the roster with a larger frame, but against Cincinnati, expect Indiana to heavily add to his team-leading 43 targets. 

Cincinnati’s cornerbacks have had a slow start. Arquon Bush has regressed throughout his career, and through three games this season, he’s allowed 5 receptions on 8 targets, a 62% reception rate following a 63% reception rate last season. Ja’Quan Sheppard, on the other side, is getting his first full season of snaps on the outside, and he’s struggling as well, allowing 5 receptions on 9 targets (56% reception rate). Combined, the Bearcats’ outside corners have one pass breakup. Bush does have an interception, though.

Camper, by far, is Indiana’s most-used outside receiver, with 132 snaps out wide. Andison Coby (55) and Javon Swinton (52) are behind him but only have 14 targets between them. With Cincinnati’s slot corners, Taj Ward and Sammy Anderson Jr., finding more early success than their outside corners, it will be interesting to see if Indiana slot receiver DJ Matthews, who has played exactly one snap out wide, will see more time near the sidelines. Or maybe Donaven McCulley (28 snaps out wide) will have a chance at a breakout game.

Whoever lines up opposite Camper in the IU offense could determine how the Hoosiers break into Cincinnati’s No. 11 passing defense (150 yards/game). Or not.

Cincinnati’s offensive line “struggles”

Before getting into Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles, it should be noted that Indiana’s offensive line is currently 102nd in pass blocking and 110th in run blocking, according to PFF’s grading scale. This is all relative. 

Cincinnati’s offensive line hasn’t been impressive, ranking 78th in pass blocking and 56th in run blocking. For comparison’s sake, here’s how Indiana opponents rank:

• Illinois: 24th in pass blocking, 28th in run blocking

• Idaho: 133rd in pass blocking, 221st in run blocking (among FBS and FCS)

• Western Kentucky: 4th in pass blocking (!!), 68th in run blocking

As far as run blocking, Cincinnati has and will try to hit the edges, just as Western Kentucky did so well last weekend and as most teams do when their lines break down in run blocking. The Bearcats average 8.5 and 5.5 yards per carry on the left and right edges, respectively. They’ll likely target their right tackle, Joe Huber, who is the only above-average run blocker on the line. They average 8.3 yards per carry to his left shoulder. 

Indiana might find some pass rush success on the edges, as Cincinnati’s tackles are slightly below average in pass blocking. Beau Robbins, who rushes on 100% of his passing snaps, will be a defensive player to watch this week. He leads the team with 7 pressures and is IU’s most effective pass rusher outside of Dasan McCullough. Both will be leaned on, since Cincinnati’s interior pass blocking is above average. 

Watch the Cincinnati intermediate passing game

Ben Bryant is doing well in his return to Cincinnati, graded as the 38th quarterback in the country and leading the 12th-best passing attack. He’s completed 70% of his passes and has a 7-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In three games, he’s thrown for 863 yards and has completed 70% of his passes.

Building off the idea of pressure from the edge in the last section, teams have only pressured Bryant in 24% of his dropbacks, and he has not thrown an interception under pressure yet. He actually grades best as a passer when teams blitz, but Indiana blitzed 46% of dropbacks against WKU and actually created success out of it. Creative blitzing schemes will go a long way against Cincinnati, but if Indiana cannot reach Bryant, that could lead to trouble (I know, novel concept!).

Even though Bryant’s average depth of target is 9.4 yards downfield, Cincinnati is an elite-level intermediate passing attack, thriving between 10 and 19 yards downfield. In that range, Bryant is 20-for-24 with 305 yards. Cincinnati’s top-two receivers, Tyler Scott and Tre Tucker, have caught a combined 11 of 12 targets there. Scott grades as the 9th-best player in the nation in the intermediate range.

Opponents so far have not tested the Hoosiers much at this intermediate range. Teams have completed 6 of 13 passes between 10 and 19 yards deep on Indiana. If Indiana can keep Cincinnati from hitting in the intermediate range, there is a chance to stunt the Bearcats passing attack, as it is graded below average at short range (0-9 yards) and about average behind the line of scrimmage. Short and behind the line of scrimmage is where WKU cut up the Indiana defense on 28-of-29 passing for 227 yards.

Should Josh Henderson get more playing time?

Probably. PFF grades Henderson more effective than Shivers as a rusher, and most of the stats support that idea. Neither is exactly wowing anyone, as Henderson averages 5.4 yards per carry and Shivers averages 4.8, but Henderson can create his own space in a way that Shivers cannot — a significant characteristic when your offensive line is the second-worst run blocking line in the conference. Both backs have 10 broken tackles this year, but Henderson is doing that with less than half of Shivers’ carries, 24 to 50. 

This widespread debate within the fanbase likely won’t matter for long against Cincinnati, however, since the Bearcats own the 17th-best rushing defense in the country.