Indiana vs. Cincinnati: Recap

Notable narratives after the IU loss at Cincinnati and the numbers behind them

As was expected, Indiana traveled to Cincinnati and lost by multiple scores, 45-24. Despite an attempted comeback and some tightening up on defense, it remained a tough loss for Indiana, which continues to search for a 60-minute performance.

There was plenty of bad, so let’s begin with a bright spot.

Indiana’s stout rushing defense

For as bad as the passing defense appeared, the rushing defense was more than effective, holding the Bearcats down to 40 yards rushing. While rushing has never been the strength of Cincinnati’s offense, Indiana needed a strong statement with the taste of 216 Illinois rushing yards still in its mouth, and Charles McClelland (averaging 5.6 yards per carry) and Corey Kiner (a 4-star transfer from LSU) are nothing to scoff at. 

The strongest contributors in rushing defense, who all earned a PFF Stop Percentage (the percentage of a player's run defense snaps where he was responsible for a stop) higher than 10%, were Cam Jones, Aaron Casey, Demarcus Elliott, and Matt Hohlt. Jones made 8 of his 11 tackles in rush defense.

According to PFF, Indiana earned its highest grade for rushing defense of the season and are now ranked No. 51 in the country.

Live and die on second down

Indiana has faced 74 third downs this season. That’s the second-most in the conference and fourth-most in the nation. The next-highest in the Big Ten is Northwestern, with 67. However, the Hoosiers have converted at a fairly high rate, earning the first down 47% of the time, the fourth-best in the conference. 

Relatedly, a consequence of relying so heavily on the passing game is that second-down becomes a drastically crucial play every drive. An incomplete first-down pass guarantees a 2nd-and-10 scenario, but it’s less of a guarantee than a first-down rush if a team is outside of the top-100 in run blocking. It makes sense why Walt Bell wants to pass on first down, but it necessitates execution on second down. For example, when Cincinnati was struggling on offense in the second half, 12 of Indiana’s 19 second downs required 10 or more yards to go, including 6 of 7 in the fourth quarter. 

Overall against Cincinnati, Indiana averaged 9.2 yards to go on its second downs and gained 4.3 yards, less than its general 4.8 yards per play. This places an immense amount of pressure on Connor Bazelak and his receivers to execute on third down, so don’t anticipate Indiana’s third-down efficiency to remain at its current status for long. 

Surprise! Pass blocking is bad.

The only optimistic mark on this Indiana offensive line coming into the Cincinnati game was that there were flashes where the pass blocking could hold up for Bazelak. That mark was wiped away in Cincinnati. 

Bazelak was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks (31-of-71), and, much to his credit, he completed 50% of his passes under pressure (13-for-26) against Cincinnati.

Every offensive lineman on the Indiana roster is suspect to average-to-below average play, but losing Matthew Bedford and Zack Carpenter has really hurt the Hoosiers. There’s a reason why Parker Hanna and Caleb Murphy were not starters at their positions, besides the fact that Murphy wasn’t recruited to Indiana to play center. PFF grades them both as the worst offensive linemen in the Big Ten with at least 100 snaps this season. They each had dismal grades for the Cincinnati game too, as well as crucial breakdowns on significant plays.

Indiana explored with Josh Sales at right tackle late in the game, and for 21 snaps, there seemed to be an improvement at the position. It would be surprising if he didn’t see more time on the field in the future.

Yes, we need to talk about the secondary.

Four Cincinnati receivers caught passes of 20 or more yards. Perhaps the most notable reception was Tyler Scott’s 75-yard score after burning Tiawan Mullen to regain the momentum. This was indicative of how bad Indiana’s secondary has been in downfield passing, leading the Big Ten in passes of 20 or more yards allowed (18).

In coverage overall, Indiana is graded 120th in the nation by PFF.

There is a bit more about the secondary below…

Revisiting last week’s keys to the Cincinnati game

• Camper should eat

I mentioned last week how Cam Camper would get plenty of opportunities against a struggling Cincinnati secondary, and he did, with 10 catches for 126 yards. But Indiana must find a receiver to complement Camper on the outside. 

DJ Matthews went down with an injury Saturday, and his absence was felt, particularly on the punt return team. But, as noted last week, Matthews mostly plays in the slot. However, Matthews’ presence stretches the defense vertically, as he leads the team in targets of 20 or more yards (7). That presence was gone when Matthews was hurt.

However, Andison Cody, who is behind Matthews and Camper in downfield targets (4), appeared to be a receiver who could develop into an outside presence for Indiana. Until someone emerges in that role, though, Camper will continue adding to his nation-leading 60 targets.

• Cincinnati offensive line struggles

Cincinnati’s offensive line was average against Indiana, which is all it needed to be in the passing game, since Indiana’s pass rush is graded at 122nd in the country. Dasan McCullough and Beau Robbins had a couple pressures, but it was ultimately Alfred Bryant who was the most effective in pass rush, with 3 pressures and a sack.

Most of the passing pressure came in the second half, when deterioration began for the Cincinnati offense.

• Cincinnati downfield passing

I underscored Cincinnati’s intermediate passing game, but it appears I underestimated how vertical they would be against Indiana. The Bearcats’ average depth of target was 10.1 yards, and I noted on Twitter (not in the last edition of BSB) that the numbers suggested Jaylin Williams would be heavily tested downfield. Williams actually wasn’t bad, allowing 3 catches on 6 targets his way for just 14 yards. Mullen, however, allowed 2 touchdowns (one on a perfect pass from Ben Bryant) and 6 catches on 7 targets.

• Josh Henderson’s opportunities

Josh Henderson had a decent showing as the backup running back. He was able to produce early in the game, but those rushes dried up, and his longest carry was for 6 yards. He ended the game with 12 carries for 29 yards and a 26-yard touchdown reception on a Cincinnati breakdown. 

Shaun Shivers had a breakaway carry for a 47-yard touchdown and flashed in space, but he continues to be stunted between the tackles. 

The eye test continues to favor Henderson over Shivers, which is supported by PFF giving Henderson the highest rushing grade on the team.