IU 2023 Roster: Reacting to trio of transfer commitments
Indiana shows life in the transfer portal!
Finally, Indiana showed life in the transfer portal Friday, landing its fourth, fifth, and sixth transfer commitments of the cycle. Of the three, there’s likely only one starting-worthy talent (it’s not who you’d expect), but I wrote in December that adding high-level depth, in addition to finding starters, is also what the portal is for. That’s what Indiana has done here.
The Hoosiers still have until Jan. 19 to land more transfer commitments, and in order to avoid running a Walt Bell triple-option offense led by Donaven McCulley in 2023, they’re going to need to get a quarterback.
In December, I recommended that Indiana aim to get a quarterback, wide receiver, tackle, center, defensive end, linebacker, cornerback, and kicker in the portal this offseason, and after Friday, they have hit on four of those positions. I don’t think this is the end of Indiana in the portal this month.
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Below are just some statistical thoughts on each of the three transfer commitments today.
EJ Williams
The Clemson transfer commit popped eyes when he committed to play in Bloomington for the next two years, but his case has been an interesting one since he signed with Clemson in 2020.
His freshman season remains his best, when he was used on 4% of Clemson’s offensive plays, caught 24 passes for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, and had zero drops. That’s also when he made this catch:
Since then, it’s not been good. He played 1% of Clemson’s plays in 2022, caught 7 passes for 70 yards and 0 touchdowns, and had 4 drops.
It’s taken two seasons (41) to match his target total from 2020 (40), and with those 41 targets, Williams has only caught 16 passes between 2021 and 2022. His 31.7% reception percentage (7 catches on 22 targets) in 2022 was, by far, the worst in the nation among wide receivers with at least 20 targets. He played 137 passing snaps and was targeted 22 times, and 5 of those targets were in traffic and all resulted in incompletions. His PFF Receiving Grade was 5th-worst in the country.
It’s just difficult to be statistically worse than EJ Williams was in 2022.
His big frame, at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, could lend itself to run blocking, where he was given 100 snaps in 2022, but his run-blocking grade was also dismal, even worse than his below-average run-blocking grade on 107 snaps in 2021.
Ultimately, he has played 524 passing snaps in three years and caught 40 passes. Whether he will see significant playing time at Indiana is yet to be determined, but this certainly feels like a Hail Mary on a former top-100 recruit in an attempt to capture the potential Williams showed as a freshman.
I guess that’s what Indiana must do at this point.
Christian Turner
In the midst of all the turmoil around Indiana’s run game last season, what was sometimes lost in the discussion was that the Hoosiers didn’t suffer injuries at the running back position. Shaun Shivers, Josh Henderson, and Jaylin Lucas remained mostly healthy and actually became more productive as the season went on. Without Shivers in 2023, though, Indiana needed depth at the position, and Christian Turner offers that. The Hoosiers will likely need him to maintain a by-committee running game again.
Turner, who signed and played for Michigan for two years before transferring to Wake Forest for two seasons, just played the best season of his career, running for 516 of his 1,288 career rushing yards and scoring 7 of his 13 career rushing touchdowns. He also added a slightly above average PFF Offensive Grade to a career full of not-bad (just fine) rushing grades. The 201-pound back did this in a Wake Forest offense that ranked 26th in available yards gained, earning 55% of yards on each drive.
Neither back has been a starter for a team, and who starts at running back for Indiana in 2023 will depend on how the coaching staff feels about Josh Henderson after a good 2022 season, given the circumstances. Here’s how the two RBs compared last year in various statistical categories.
Source: Pro Football Focus, CollegeFootballData.com
The numbers over Turner’s career seem to show that he is not a volume back, meaning he doesn’t need many carries to be productive. In fact, in games when he does get many carries, his production decreases. He’s only hit 15 carries four times in his career, and he’s averaged 2.9 yards per carry in those games combined.
In the passing game, Turner has fewer targets in his entire career (19) than Henderson had receptions in 2022 (24). However, those 24 catches were nearly all of Henderson’s career receptions (27), so figuring out exactly which role either back will play in 2023 seems to be entirely ambiguous at this point, given how similar they are.
The positive in this commitment is that Turner adds a third prong to Indiana’s backfield, and it will likely be a by-committee effort again in 2023. Though, personally, I’d like to see more Josh Henderson in 2023.
Nicolas Toomer
This is my favorite addition of the trio of transfer commits Friday. As a cornerback, 6-foot-2 is great length, especially in a league with big receivers. Toomer has also been developed by the same program for his entire career at Stanford. He also has experience, with two straight seasons of 300-plus snaps, though without being a starter. Now, he has a chance to grab a hold of a starting job at Indiana with a decimated, young cornerbacks room in Bloomington.
Stanford was not a good defense overall, ranking 124th in defensive available yards allowed (59%) and graded by PFF as the 128th defense in the country (worse than Indiana – 117th). It was not a great year for the Cardinal, which finished 3-9. Toomer didn’t exactly wow either, posting a below average PFF Defensive Grade, but he had a better 2021 season and has shown flashes in the last two years.
His breakout game came when he started against then-No.3 Oregon in 2021 and Stanford achieved a massive upset. Toomer led the team with 10 tackles, as Oregon specifically targeted him in the passing game, and while surrendering 6 catches on 8 targets, Toomer only allowed 45 yards. That’s the most he’s been tested since. His best game in 2022 came in a start against UCLA, who is now ranked No. 18 in the AP Top-25 Poll. He played a season-high 62 snaps and allowed just one catch on three targets while also making a stop in space.
Compared to Indiana’s cornerbacks in 2022, Toomer wasn’t bad either. On his 136 coverage snaps, he was tested 17 times and allowed 8 catches (47% reception rate). No Hoosier cornerback allowed less than a 55% reception rate, even at a comparable target share (Chris Keys – 55% on 18 targets, Brylan Lanier – 71% on 14 targets). Toomer played 16 coverage snaps per reception allowed in 2022; the best Hoosier in this regard was Jaylin Williams, allowing a reception every 11 coverage snaps (Tiawan Mullen was 11 too). In 2021, Toomer allowed a reception every 15 coverage snaps.
However, if he does start at cornerback in 2023, he will need to prove that he can sustain that production while being tested often. His receivers have only been targeted 34 times in the last two years. If you’re of the mentality that a cornerback can only work with the opportunities he is given, then it’s also notable that his reception rate (47%) was third and his snaps per reception rate (15.9) was fourth in the Pac-12 among cornerbacks with as many coverage snaps as him.
Source: Pro Football Focus
His tackling will need to show improvement, which is strange because his tackling was a point of emphasis during his high school recruitment. His tackling grades could be worse, but they haven’t been good recently.