IUBB NCAAT Path: First & Second Rounds
Kent State, Miami (FL), Drake: Who are these teams?
The NCAA March Madness Bracket has been released, and 4-seeded Indiana has been given its path in the Midwest Region. In the last edition of Bite-Sized Bison, I gave statistical profiles of teams who Indiana could potentially play in the Second Round, and the team on that list who was given the 5th seed opposite Indiana was Miami. Miami will be addressed later in this newsletter, but feel free to revisit the last page to not only learn more about Miami but to also help you fill out your brackets.
There is a lot to chew on when it comes to the teams in the Midwest Region, so Bite-Sized Bison is going to go weekend-by-weekend to preview the potential teams the Hoosiers will play.
First Round
Kent State (28-6)
KenPom ranking: 71
Record vs. Quad 1 (T-rank): 0-3 (17th)
Top Performers: Sincere Carry (17.6 points/game, 3.7 rebs/ game, 4.9 assists/game, 36.7 minutes/game), Malique Jacobs (13.0 points/game, 5.2 rebs/game, 3.6 assists/game, 2.7 steals/game, MAC Defensive Player of the Year), Miryne Thomas (10.7 points/game, 5.5 rebs/game)
Any Indiana kids?: No
Haslametrics Predicted Score: 73-69 Indiana
Resume:
Good wins: Toledo (2 times), Akron (2 times), @Northern Kentucky
Notable Losses: @Houston (49-44), @Gonzaga (73-66), @Charleston (74-72), @Northern Illinois, @Akron, @Ball State
Most mid-major programs are going to have bad losses on their resumes because of their naturally weaker strength of schedule (Kent State’s is 189th in the nation), but the common thread with this Kent State team is that in its games against good opponents, they haven’t been blown out – far from actually. They lost their three Quad 1 games by an average of 4.7 points during the non-conference schedule and then went 15-3 in conference play and won three neutral-site games to claim the MAC title. They tied Houston with three minutes to play before losing, 49-44, and with 3:41 left to play at Gonzaga, they led by four.
Haslametrics predicts Kent State to defeat Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin on neutral sites and lose to Ohio State and Rutgers by one point. I did this same exercise with Drake below.
Who is Kent State?
Kent State has three primary contributors – Sincere Carry (MAC All-Defensive Team) at the one, Malique Jacobs (MAC Defensive Player of the Year) at the three (and sometimes at the two), and Miryne Thomas at the four. Carry has played 92.2% of his team’s minutes this season, the 10th-most in the nation, and Jacobs is tied for the third-most steals in the nation. Each guard owns a usage percentage of 26.1%, which is 7.1% higher than Thomas, the third-most used player on the roster. Thomas is likely the best athlete on the team and will be a tough matchup for Race Thompson and Malik Reneau. He has effective field goal, turnover, block, and steal percentages all within the top-500 nationally, according to KenPom, and he attempts 5.6 threes per game. Chris Payton and Cli’Ron Hornbeak, Kent State’s platoon centers, are extremely effective at crashing the boards and being strong defensive presences in the frontcourt, but whether that translates in difficult non-MAC matchups is suspect. Lastly, Jalen Sullinger (the MAC’s Sixth Man of the Year) stepped into the starting lineup for an injured Giovanni Santiago in January and is shooting threes at 42%.
Strengths:
You might have noticed that Kent State is 0-3 in Quad 1 games but Bart Torvik’s T-rank suggests Kent State is the 17th-best team in Quad 1 games. That’s because, according to Bart Torvik, Kent State’s defense is ranked No. 1 in the country in Quad 1 games. That is their strength. On KenPom, Kent State’s defensive efficiency (38th in the nation) is actually higher than Indiana’s (43rd). Malique Jacobs, a 6-foot-3 guard who switches between the two and the three, is Kent State’s best individual defender. He owns the 18th-best steal percentage in the country and, by far, the best defensive box plus/minus on his team.
The player who could really give Indiana trouble is Miryne Thomas. At 6-foot-8, he is the tallest starter on the roster but plays the four because of his athletic ability. As mentioned before, he does a little bit of everything for the Golden Flashes, and he logged an impressive string of games during the MAC Tournament, averaging 15.3 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 2.7 steals, 1 turnover, and 2 personal fouls per game.
The Golden Flashes also have an extremely reliable point guard in Sincere Carry. Between Carry, Jacobs, and Jalen Sullinger, Kent State runs most of its operations through its backcourt, which has proven to be successful, as Kent State has the 58th-lowest turnover percentage on offense and the 20th-highest turnover percentage on defense. And the three primary guards combine for 39.2 of the team’s 76.6 points per game. Carry has attempted the 35th-most field goals in the country.
Not to be forgotten, Kent State’s centers, Chris Payton (6-foot-7) and Cli’Ron Hornbeak (6-foot-9) are extremely efficient on defense, but the lack of size, which will be discussed below, is a concern here.
Weaknesses:
Size is a problem for most mid-major programs, but for Kent State, it’s a big problem. The Golden Flashes rank in the bottom-20 programs nationally for size on the roster. For a team playing Trayce Jackson-Davis, that’s a problem. Kent State finds ways to succeed, though, through the play of its backcourt. It weaponizes its defense by fronting its guards, as Carry and Jacobs are both MAC All-Defensive players. This was effective against Houston and Charleston. Kent State forced 23 turnovers against Houston – 14 from steals – and 17 against Charleston – 10 from steals. But against teams with size, like Gonzaga and Houston, Kent State floundered in the post. A 6-foot-10 Drew Timme recorded 29 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks against Kent State when they played Gonzaga, and a 6-foot-8 J’Wan Roberts recorded 11 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks for Houston. This translated on offense too, where Kent State shot 37.8% from two in those two games combined.
Second Round
Miami (25-7)
KenPom ranking: 40
Record vs. Quad 1 (T-rank): 5-5 (16th)
Top Performers: Isaiah Wong (15.9 points/game, 3.4 assists/game, ACC Player of the Year), Jordan Miller (15.1 points/game, 6.1 rebs/game)
Any Indiana kids?: Nijel Pack, Lawrence Central (13.4 points/game)
Haslametrics Predicted Score: 77-76 Indiana
Resume:
Good wins: Providence, vs. Rutgers, vs. Virginia, vs. Duke, @North Carolina
Notable Losses: @Georgia Tech, @NC State, @Pitt, vs. Florida State
There aren’t many big wins to be had in the 91st-ranked schedule, and there are a few bad losses, including to No. 208 Florida State on Feb. 25. But Miami being 5-5 in Quad 1 games goes a long way in explaining the identity of this team. So does having Isaiah Wong, the ACC Player of the Year, on their roster. It’s not a great resume and not even a great roster, but the explosiveness of the offense makes me a tad nervous along with finishing the regular season 8-1. Allowing 85 points to a middling Duke offense is more encouraging for Indiana. The health of Norchad Omier will be crucial too.
Who is Miami?
Miami is one of the most offensively explosive team’s in the nation, rated 12th in offensive efficiency by KenPom and owning the 20th-best effective field goal percentage. But Miami’s lack of depth might see that the Hurricanes are eliminated in the First Round by Drake. Miami has the 318th-most bench minutes in the country, and its primary center, 6-foot-7 Third Team All-ACC Norchad Omier, who plays center 61% of Miami’s minutes and owns the roster’s best defensive rating, was ruled day-to-day after an injury against Duke. Anthony Walker, who has played 10 minutes per game this season, will step in if needed. Without Omier, who averages 13.6 points per game, Miami would be down to three players who average double-digit scoring – Nijel Pack at the one, Jordan Miller at the four, and ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong at the two. Wooga Poplar, who plays the three, would be the team’s defensive leader without Omier.
Strengths:
Offense. Miami is ranked 12th in offensive efficiency by KenPom and converts consistently from most areas of the court (42nd in 2-pt%, 29th in 3-pt%, 17th in FT%), though the Hurricanes, like the Hoosiers, don’t attempt many threes. Since the New Year, Miami ranks 5th in the country in 3-point percentage but attempts the 237th-most threes, with 20.5 (IU is 24th in 3-pt% since the New Year and 352nd in attempted threes, with 15). It’s essentially a two-man party from three for Miami, as Pack (6.1) and Wong (4.5) take about half the team’s threes per game and are legitimate threats from behind the arc in any game, particularly Pack. Wong improved his 3-point shooting from 31% last year to 38% this year.
Largely though, this team scores from inside. The Hurricanes rank 85th in the country for the amount of scoring they do inside, and they have two top-150 players in Offensive Rating in the paint, between Miller (36th) and Omier (150th).
Miami also had earned a reputation for offensive rebounding, ranking 71st in the country in the category, but Omier, who brings down 3.7 offensive rebounds per game and owns the 15th-best offensive rebounding percentage, might not be available, and no one on the team is particularly special at rebounding.
Weaknesses:
Defense has been a struggle for Miami this season. The Hurricanes rank 132nd in defensive efficiency by KenPom, and since the New Year, Miami is 300th in defensive 2-point percentage, and that’s with Omier at center. Trayce Jackson-Davis would have a day against Miami. One of the primary reasons for these struggles defensively is the size disadvantage, as Miami ranks 224th in roster height and has a 6-foot-7 center, and its tempo (ranked 102nd) is only slightly above the national average. Not a single individual on the roster owns a Defensive Rating – an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions defended – below 100, which is…not good.
In its 10 Quad 1 games, Miami is rated 115th in defensive efficiency, allows the 88th effective field goal percentage, and is ranked 101st in both 2-point defense and 3-point defense. Even its rebounding sees a steep downtick between Quad 1 games and other games.
Drake (27-7)
KenPom ranking: 66
Record vs. Quad 1 (T-rank): 1-1 (108th)
Top Performers: Tucker DeVries (19.0 points/game, 5.6 rebs/game, MVC Player of the Year), Roman Penn (12.6 points/game, 4.6 rebs/game, 5.4 assists/game)
Any Indiana kids?: DJ Wilkins, Merrillville (8.2 points/game)
Haslametrics Predicted Score: 71-69 Indiana
Resume:
Good wins: vs. Louisiana, Mississippi State, Bradley (2 times)
Notable Losses: Missouri State (2 times), @Indiana State, @Bradley
As was discussed with Kent State, it’s difficult to expect zero bad losses from mid-major programs, though two losses to Missouri State is a bit concerning for the resume. However, Drake cruised through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament this week, winning each game by double-digits, and beating Bradley by 26 for the title. The Bulldogs have also won 20 games in five straight seasons for the first time in program history. Since Drake has only played two Quad 1 games, it is difficult to judge them based on such a small sample size, but against top-100 opponents, Drake has a T-rank of 43 and a defensive efficiency rank of 48. Directly in front of Drake, in terms of top-100 opponents, is Indiana with a T-rank of 42, though it’s played 19 more games against top-100 teams.
According to Haslametrics, Drake would defeat Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rutgers, and Wisconsin on neutral sites, and it would lose to Michigan State by one point.
Who is Drake?
What must first be understood about Drake is Tucker DeVries, the son of head coach Darian DeVries and a 6-foot-7 power forward who won the 2023 Larry Bird Trophy for the MVC’s Player of the Year after winning last season’s Freshman of the Year Award. It’s the fourth time since 1969 that a sophomore has won the award. He averages 19 points per game (45th in the nation) and 5.6 rebounds. Senior point guard Roman Penn was fourth in voting for the Larry Bird Trophy. He averages 12.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game, as well as owning the second-best defensive plus/minus among starters. Indiana-native DJ Wilkins, who plays the two, is a 3-point specialist, teaming up with DeVries to combine for an average of 12.2 threes attempted per game. Inside, 6-foot-10 Darnell Brodie ranks 62nd nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and 178th in block percentage. Garrett Sturtz, a third guard in the starting five, is a plus defender and the third-leading scorer on the team. The Bulldogs also have five bench contributors who can spell each position, particularly defensively, and they rank 18th in minutes continuity and 29th in DI experience, which makes this Drake team dangerous to any opponent in the Field of 68.
Strengths:
As mentioned above, defense is a strength for Drake. In its 5 top-100 games, it allowed a 49.3 effective field goal percentage and allowed just a 47.6 2-point percentage. Overall, Drake allows the 54th-lowest effective field goal percentage, and holds its opponents below average in all scoring methods (2-pt, 3-pt, and FT), though it doesn’t force many turnovers or block many shots. This translates to even its most difficult games on the schedule, though it’s a small sample size with Mississippi State being the toughest.
Tucker DeVries is a cheat code. He doesn’t turn the ball over often and only averages two personal fouls per game despite playing 33 minutes per game. He is also one of the more productive facilitators on the roster as a power forward. He is one of the best players in the Tournament, no question.
Despite its offense being ranked 98th in efficiency, Drake is ranked 46th in 3-point percentage, 95th in 2-point percentage, 20th in free throw percentage, 19th in offensive block percentage, 30th in offensive steal percentage, and 78th in offensive non-steal turnover percentage. Those are very efficient numbers. And since the New Year, Drake has gone 16-4 while shooting 54.6% (37th in nation) and shooting 39.9% from three (9th in nation). The trouble is…
Weaknesses:
An argument could be made that Drake isn’t tested. According to CBB Analytics, the MVC is rated as the 14th-best conference in Division I men’s basketball. If you just read my analysis on Kent State – the MAC is rated 19th-best conference – the difference is that Kent State played well in its Quad 1 games. It’s difficult to know if Drake’s data can translate against Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino when the Bulldogs have played a total of 5 top-100 teams and lost to three of them at least once.
Aside from the schedule, Drake has struggled to force turnovers, ranking 222nd in the nation in turnover percentage, and to score from inside, ranking 129th in 2-point field goal percentage (51.7).
A major concern for teams playing Drake is that there aren’t that many weaknesses with this team, and if their strengths prove to be effective against teams more equal to its toughest regular season opponent (Mississippi State), then this could be a potential Cinderella.