IUMBB Preview: Illinois

A quick preview of Indiana Men's Basketball's next matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini

The Hoosiers are in desperate need of a bounce-back after a tough loss at Iowa over the weekend. Indiana fell seven spots — from No. 49 to No. 56 — in KenPom.com’s rankings. And while they return to Assembly Hall for Tuesday night’s matchup, they also welcome in 19th-ranked Illinois (No. 13 via KenPom.com), who boasts the 10th-best defensive efficiency nationally.

This difficulty in competition is here to stay too. During Indiana’s recent five-game winning streak, their opponents peaked at No. 50 (via KenPom.com), but for Indiana’s remaining schedule (14 games), they play just three teams ranked outside the top-50.

Key

• PPP = Points per possession — PPP is a reliable measure of efficiency on either side of the floor and is calculated as it’s named.

• Tempo = Possessions per 40 minutes played — Tempo conveys how quickly a team plays on offense or how its defense is able to slow tempo

• Effective FG% = FGs made + 0.5*3P FGs made / FGs attempted — Effective field goal percentage is much like field goal percentage but with a weight applied to threes to somewhat account for range

• Points from FTs, Points from 2, Points from 3 = Total points from each range / Total points scored — This simply shows how many points are coming from each range for each team.

• 3-pt Rate = 3P FGs attempted / FGs attempted — This metric answers the question: What percentage of a team’s attempted shots are from three? Even shorter yet: How often does a team shoot threes?

• 3-pt% = 3P FGs made / 3P FGs attempted — This is the traditional three-point percentage metric.

• Layup/Dunk% = Layup/Dunk FGs made / Layup/Dunk FGs attempted — A traditional field goal percentage for layups and dunks; How well does a team convert its closest shot attempts?

• Free Throw Rate = FTs attempted / FGs attempted — Very similar to 3-pt Rate, free throw rate seeks to convey how often a team shoots free throws, which can show how well a team draws fouls.

• Assist Rate = Assists / FGs attempted — Assist rate conveys how well a team moves the ball, particularly as it relates to creating shots.

• Turnover Rate = Turnovers / Possessions — Turnover Rate simply shows which proportion of possessions end in turnovers for a specific team.

• Block Rate = Blocks / Opponent FGs attempted — How many shots does a team block?

• Off. Rebound% = Offensive Rebounds / missed FGs — How often is a team gathering its own missed shots?

How to Read the Chart

Radar charts are super common in sports analytics, and if you’ve played sports video games, you’ve probably seen them before (typically in comparing the attributes of teams or players).

Each chart is intended to compare each side of the floor (IU’s offense vs. Opponent’s defense; IU’s defense vs. Opponent’s offense), and Indiana will always be red, while its opponent will always be black. The colored fill is intended to quickly show where an advantage/disadvantage is felt within each statistic.

For each stat, each team’s percentile within Division I college basketball is conveyed, which means the measure is in a pool of 300+ programs.

Some percentiles are fairly straightforward, such as 3-pt%; if an offense has a higher 3-pt% percentile, that means they make more of their threes than most D-I programs. But if a defense has a lower percentile within the same stat, it means it allows a better percentage of threes to be converted. Therefore, if there is a big gap between the two, then whoever makes a good amount of threes could have an advantage.

Some other stats are not as straightforward, such as Turnover Rate; if an offense has a high percentile within Turnover Rate, that means it doesn’t turn the ball over often, whereas if a defense has a high percentile in Turnover Rate, it forces more turnovers. Or Tempo: If an offense has a high percentile in Tempo, then it runs fast, but if a defense has a high percentile in Tempo, it allows a fast game.

The idea is that if there is a gap between the two values within each stat, the color that fills that gap has the advantage in that dimension.

Observations

Indiana vs. Illinois:

• Illinois plays fast. Can Indiana keep up?

• Illinois is an outstanding rebounding team. They lead the nation in defensive rebounds per game (32). If Indiana can dig into that, it would go a long way.

• Illinois doesn’t force many turnovers either, as they’re forced turnover rate ranks 329th nationally. Indiana cannot afford to gift the Illini turnovers, like they can do at times (116th in non-steal turnover rate, according to KenPom.com).

• Offensively, Indiana seemingly has an advantage in interior scoring against Illinois’ defense. Illinois allows the 9th-most points via twos nationally.

• The Hoosiers need to be strong in perimeter defense. Illinois is 8th nationally in attempted threes per game (31.5). As the chart shows, this is where they get the bulk of their points, but they aren’t incredibly efficient, as they rank 218th in three-point percentage (33%). What that spacing and tempo opens up inside is a concern, though. Illinois converts 57% of its interior shots (47th nationally).

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