IUMBB Preview: Iowa

A quick preview of Indiana Men's Basketball's next matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes

While Bite-Sized Bison is and will remain a football-centric publication, basketball is obviously a key characteristic to any IU fandom, so I spent the past several days developing a visualization that could quickly convey many dimensions of an upcoming IU men’s basketball game.

The Hoosiers are currently 13-3 (4-1 in Big Ten play) and are coming off some of their most impressive performances of the season — a five-game win streak that includes wins over Chattanooga (KenPom.com No. 184), Winthrop (No. 203), Rutgers (No. 88), Penn State (No. 52), and USC (No. 78) — but the schedule will ramp up soon, as KenPom.com projects the Hoosiers to lose their next nine games. They travel to No. 51 Iowa on Saturday.

While BSB’s expertise lies in college football, there’s certainly enough understanding to offer similar visualizations as offered for football, so before each matchup, I’ll be presenting the graphics below, which are intended to convey which dimensions of the game provide advantages or disadvantages to either team.

Key

• PPP = Points per possession — PPP is a reliable measure of efficiency on either side of the floor and is calculated as it’s named.

• Tempo = Possessions per 40 minutes played — Tempo conveys how quickly a team plays on offense or how its defense is able to slow tempo

• Effective FG% = FGs made + 0.5*3P FGs made / FGs attempted — Effective field goal percentage is much like field goal percentage but with a weight applied to threes to somewhat account for range

• Points from FTs, Points from 2, Points from 3 = Total points from each range / Total points scored — This simply shows how many points are coming from each range for each team.

• 3-pt Rate = 3P FGs attempted / FGs attempted — This metric answers the question: What percentage of a team’s attempted shots are from three? Even shorter yet: How often does a team shoot threes?

• 3-pt% = 3P FGs made / 3P FGs attempted — This is the traditional three-point percentage metric.

• Layup/Dunk% = Layup/Dunk FGs made / Layup/Dunk FGs attempted — A traditional field goal percentage for layups and dunks; How well does a team convert its closest shot attempts?

• Free Throw Rate = FTs attempted / FGs attempted — Very similar to 3-pt Rate, free throw rate seeks to convey how often a team shoots free throws, which can show how well a team draws fouls.

• Assist Rate = Assists / FGs attempted — Assist rate conveys how well a team moves the ball, particularly as it relates to creating shots.

• Turnover Rate = Turnovers / Possessions — Turnover Rate simply shows which proportion of possessions end in turnovers for a specific team.

• Block Rate = Blocks / Opponent FGs attempted — How many shots does a team block?

• Off. Rebound% = Offensive Rebounds / missed FGs — How often is a team gathering its own missed shots?

How to Read the Chart

Radar charts are super common in sports analytics, and if you’ve played sports video games, you’ve probably seen them before (typically in comparing the attributes of teams or players).

Each chart is intended to compare each side of the floor (IU’s offense vs. Opponent’s defense; IU’s defense vs. Opponent’s offense), and Indiana will always be red, while its opponent will always be black. The colored fill is intended to quickly show where an advantage/disadvantage is felt within each statistic.

For each stat, each team’s percentile within Division I college basketball is conveyed, which means the measure is in a pool of 300+ programs.

Some percentiles are fairly straightforward, such as 3-pt%; if an offense has a higher 3-pt% percentile, that means they make more of their threes than most D-I programs. But if a defense has a lower percentile within the same stat, it means it allows a better percentage of threes to be converted. Therefore, if there is a big gap between the two, then whoever makes a good amount of threes could have an advantage.

Some other stats are not as straightforward, such as Turnover Rate; if an offense has a high percentile within Turnover Rate, that means it doesn’t turn the ball over often, whereas if a defense has a high percentile in Turnover Rate, it forces more turnovers. Or Tempo: If an offense has a high percentile in Tempo, then it runs fast, but if a defense has a high percentile in Tempo, it allows a fast game.

The idea is that if there is a gap between the two values within each stat, the color that fills that gap has the advantage in that dimension.

Observations

There are many insights that can be gleaned from these charts, which are intended to show tendencies. It’s basketball, so during any game, there can be breaks from these tendencies, but much like the Advanced Stat Previews for football, these charts seek to provide statistical profiles of each team and compare them.

Indiana at Iowa:

• Iowa will want to run a fast game (see Iowa offense’s Tempo percentile), and while Indiana can run quicker on offense, it likes to slow things down a bit on defense. That tension will be interesting to watch.

• Indiana’s primary advantage against Iowa (according to these charts) is that Iowa allows a lot of scoring inside, where the Hoosiers notoriously love to score. Oumar Ballo and cutting guards will be significant.

• The Hoosiers have hit double-digit offensive rebounds in six of their last seven games, and Iowa is one of the most susceptible teams to allowing second-chance opportunities. Major advantage for Indiana.

• Iowa’s offense is very efficient (see the advantage in PPP, Tempo, Effective FG%, Assist Rate, Turnover Rate, and Block Rate). That side of the floor will be very important for Indiana.

• One concern for Indiana defensively is that Iowa appears to convert inside at a high level. The Hoosiers have seen streaks where opponents can get shots on the interior, even during this win streak.

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