IUMBB Preview: Ohio State
A quick preview of Indiana Men's Basketball's next matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes
Well, that Illinois game was worse than anticipated. The Hoosiers dropped a historically bad loss to the Illini on Tuesday and now travel to Ohio State, who is ranked 31st by KenPom.com but is 2-3 since its win over Kentucky on Dec. 21. One of those wins was in double-overtime over Minnesota (No. 99), and all three losses were to teams in KenPom’s top-25.
With as bad as Indiana’s first-half performance was against Illinois (in Assembly, even), this one is not out of reach for the Hoosiers. KenPom gives Indiana a 25% to win, and that feels about right, subjectively.
Observations
Indiana at Ohio State:
Ohio State makes its money on defense. The Buckeyes’ PPP (points per possession) is far more efficient on defense than Indiana’s is on offense.
Ohio State is going to be one of the toughest teams to score on in the interior. It ranks 56th nationally in two-point percentage allowed (46%) and also 25th in three-point percentage allowed (29%). Scoring any points will not be an easy feat. OSU does tend to foul often, so that could help.
Indiana needs to match Ohio State’s defensive performance with one of its own, which the numbers suggest should be possible. Indiana’s defense nearly matches Ohio State’s offensive PPP, but the Hoosiers need to be strong on defense in the interior.
Indiana could have a rebounding advantage tonight, which would go a long way offensively. Since recording six consecutive games with double-digit offensive rebounds, Indiana has averaged 7.6 in its last three games. Ohio State isn’t the most sizable team, as its tallest starter is 6-foot-9.
Key
PPP = Points per possession — PPP is a reliable measure of efficiency on either side of the floor and is calculated as it’s named.
Tempo = Possessions per 40 minutes played — Tempo conveys how quickly a team plays on offense or how its defense is able to slow tempo
Effective FG% = FGs made + 0.5*3P FGs made / FGs attempted — Effective field goal percentage is much like field goal percentage but with a weight applied to threes to somewhat account for range
Points from FTs, Points from 2, Points from 3 = Total points from each range / Total points scored — This simply shows how many points are coming from each range for each team.
3-pt Rate = 3P FGs attempted / FGs attempted — This metric answers the question: What percentage of a team’s attempted shots are from three? Even shorter yet: How often does a team shoot threes?
3-pt% = 3P FGs made / 3P FGs attempted — This is the traditional three-point percentage metric.
Layup/Dunk% = Layup/Dunk FGs made / Layup/Dunk FGs attempted — A traditional field goal percentage for layups and dunks; How well does a team convert its closest shot attempts?
Free Throw Rate = FTs attempted / FGs attempted — Very similar to 3-pt Rate, free throw rate seeks to convey how often a team shoots free throws, which can show how well a team draws fouls.
Assist Rate = Assists / FGs attempted — Assist rate conveys how well a team moves the ball, particularly as it relates to creating shots.
Turnover Rate = Turnovers / Possessions — Turnover Rate simply shows which proportion of possessions end in turnovers for a specific team.
Block Rate = Blocks / Opponent FGs attempted — How many shots does a team block?
Off. Rebound% = Offensive Rebounds / missed FGs — How often is a team gathering its own missed shots?
How to Read the Chart
Radar charts are super common in sports analytics, and if you’ve played sports video games, you’ve probably seen them before (typically in comparing the attributes of teams or players).
Each chart is intended to compare each side of the floor (IU’s offense vs. Opponent’s defense; IU’s defense vs. Opponent’s offense), and Indiana will always be red, while its opponent will always be black. The colored fill is intended to quickly show where an advantage/disadvantage is felt within each statistic.
For each stat, each team’s percentile within Division I college basketball is conveyed, which means the measure is in a pool of 300+ programs.
Some percentiles are fairly straightforward, such as 3-pt%; if an offense has a higher 3-pt% percentile, that means they make more of their threes than most D-I programs. But if a defense has a lower percentile within the same stat, it means it allows a better percentage of threes to be converted. Therefore, if there is a big gap between the two, then whoever makes a good amount of threes could have an advantage.
Some other stats are not as straightforward, such as Turnover Rate; if an offense has a high percentile within Turnover Rate, that means it doesn’t turn the ball over often, whereas if a defense has a high percentile in Turnover Rate, it forces more turnovers. Or Tempo: If an offense has a high percentile in Tempo, then it runs fast, but if a defense has a high percentile in Tempo, it allows a fast game.
The idea is that if there is a gap between the two values within each stat, the color that fills that gap has the advantage in that dimension.