Previewing Possible CFP Matchups for Indiana
Before Championship Weekend begins, let's take a quick look at possible First Round matchups for Indiana waiting on the other side.
Indiana does not play this weekend, of course, but it has plenty to watch for, as it is ranked 9th in the College Football Playoff field and seeded 10th. The Hoosiers seem fairly locked into the CFP field but certainly have seeding interests. Currently, the bracket is as follows, but it will be updated for the final time Sunday, after conference championships.
Source: Zach Osterman
While not every team will play this weekend, there is still plenty of change expected, especially since several of these teams play each other.
These are the games featuring currently seeded CFP teams this weekend:
UNLV vs. Boise State (Friday)
Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Georgia vs. Texas
Penn State vs. Oregon
Clemson vs. SMU
There are realities where Indiana plays nearly any of the teams seeded ahead of it, but an extremely small number of those realities include Indiana hosting a first round matchup. The Hoosiers’ rooting interests are almost solely opponent-related.
So let’s take a look at those opponents.
Below is an opponent-adjusted EPA/play chart created each week by Bud Davis (the annotations are his, not mine).
The initial Georgia matchup actually isn’t bad overall, according to this chart, even though there is a very stark difference in talent and the team-to-team matchup is tough for Indiana’s OL. Going to Athens would be a tall task, too, where others would be marginally easier.
This is how Indiana would stack up against Georgia, when considering some advanced analytics:
Observations:
Georgia QB Carson Beck (10th in QBR) would need to beat Indiana. Georgia gets the 41st-most rushing success against an Indiana defense that is perhaps the best run defense in the country. This might be the case for most teams, but Beck has had some serious struggles at times, including three games of 3+ INTs.
Georgia’s DL is talented but it surrenders ground in the run game (46th in line yards allowed per rush). The Bulldogs use their LBs in pass rush more than any other SEC team (4 in the top-12 in pass-rush snaps), which the nation knows is a struggle for Indiana’s interior OL. This would make it difficult to throw for Kurtis Rourke.
Who Else Might Indiana Play?
Below are previews for other teams Indiana could face in the first round, given most possible outcomes (or even in the second round).
Observations:
Statistically, Tennessee is 9th nationally in allowed rushing yards, which is behind Michigan, UCLA, and Ohio State on Indiana’s schedule, but analytically, Tennessee would be the toughest run defense Indiana will have seen to date. Indiana would need to beat Tennessee with Kurtis Rourke’s arm, and if the OL can protect Rourke against a defense that doesn’t blitz often, it’s possible.
Indiana would actually have a sizable advantage on defense, but the DBs would likely be tested heavily.
Observations:
We all know how Ohio State would attack Indiana. See the BSB Recap of that game to best understand how the Buckeyes rushed Rourke through blitzing. Could Indiana better prepare for that attack? How much was the environment part of the issue, and how would it perform in a rematch? Does Indiana stick with the run more often on offense? Are those opportunities still there? There would be plenty of questions going into this matchup, and I wouldn’t anticipate it looking the same as it did the first time around, schematically.
Defensively, similar questions could be asked about Ohio State. Ryan Day is being criticized by his fans for not throwing the ball more often. The passing scheme hurt Indiana fairly critically in certain scenarios; does Chip Kelly get back to that more often?
Observations:
Notre Dame’s defense has a very strong EPA/play value when adjusted for opponent, but opposing offenses average an SP+ offensive rating of 68th in the nation (6 outside the top-90). On top of this, it is actually terrible at stopping the run. Part of this is because Notre Dame has played four games where its opponent passed the ball 20 or fewer times. The Irish surrendered 360 passing yards to USC, 269 to Georgia Tech, and 264 to Louisville. The only offenses Notre Dame has played rated anywhere near Indiana’s are Louisville’s and USC’s.
Defensively, Indiana might struggle with Riley Leonard, who is a top-15 rushing QB in the FBS and owns the 15th-best adjusted completion percentage nationally. Indiana hasn’t seen a QB like that at Leonard’s level. Outside of Leonard and RB Jeremiyah Love, though, the Notre Dame offense is largely toothless.
Observations:
This Penn State team is a bit of a wild card, but there seems to be a clear formula for stopping its offense: stop the run. During its worst days moving the ball (three games with 20 or fewer first downs), it struggled to run the ball. This offense was built to be stopped by Indiana’s defense: stop the run and use Jailin Walker and the safeties to limit TE Tyler Warren.
The Penn State defense, on the other hand, is a tough matchup for Indiana. Tom Allen’s crew pretty effortlessly causes havoc along the DL (an expected top-10 NFL Draft pick in Abdul Carter helps, of course), allowing his LBs to act instinctively, which has been liberating for Kobe King, on of the best Big Ten LBs. But there are some familiar tropes with this Tom Allen defense, one being that the middle of the field should be open for Mike Shanahan’s passing attack (58th in conversion rate) and another being that explosion potential is there (77th in allowed explosion rate).
Observations:
Indiana’s defense should have an advantage in the running game, which is not particularly dynamite, and that leaves Quinn Ewers to beat the Hoosiers. Ewers ranks 32nd in ESPN QBR and is graded 81st in the FBS by PFF. The primary concern is that Texas has four pass-catchers that create a receiving corps that could cause issues.
The primary concern with Texas’ defense is the DL, which has three representatives among the top-20 SEC DLs, but the Longhorns don’t blitz often. There also seems to be opportunity in the run game against Texas.
Who are the most ideal matchups?
These are all really tough matchups because it is the College Football Playoff, but the following are the matchups, based simply on these Advanced Stat Previews, some other research, and the football I’ve personally seen, that could bode well for Indiana:
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Penn State
Texas
Georgia
Ohio State
How does Indiana get into matchups with these teams? Well, I don’t think anyone really knows the answer to that. The CFP Committee has placed itself in a situation where there will be logical fallacies for any final state of this field, and in a position where it’s nearly impossible to predict any sure fate for any explicit result.
However each person believes the field may shake out with this weekend’s results, consider this ranking of matchups above when deciding your rooting interests, though.
And, of course, when Indiana’s opponent is finalized, Bite-Sized Bison will do its typical deep-dive Preview.
Excellent analysis as usual. Honestly I see IU as playing with House Money and am just thrilled to be playing. As a long time observer of college football I DO NOT EXPECT THE COMMITTEE NOR THE ZEBRAS TO DO IU ANY FAVORS. You understand: “Great season Cig. Now take your nice little team home.” If they play ND, look for a referee named 0’Flaherty, a side judge named O’Houlihan, and a back judge named O’Toole.”
No matter who they play, the OL needs to show up and show out. I just don’t want to play PSU or OSU on a glacier field.
Give us the Irish!