Previewing Possible CFP Matchups for Indiana

Before Championship Weekend begins, let's take a quick look at possible First Round matchups for Indiana waiting on the other side.

Indiana does not play this weekend, of course, but it has plenty to watch for, as it is ranked 9th in the College Football Playoff field and seeded 10th. The Hoosiers seem fairly locked into the CFP field but certainly have seeding interests. Currently, the bracket is as follows, but it will be updated for the final time Sunday, after conference championships.

Source: Zach Osterman

While not every team will play this weekend, there is still plenty of change expected, especially since several of these teams play each other.

These are the games featuring currently seeded CFP teams this weekend:

• UNLV vs. Boise State (Friday)

• Iowa State vs. Arizona State

• Georgia vs. Texas

• Penn State vs. Oregon

• Clemson vs. SMU

There are realities where Indiana plays nearly any of the teams seeded ahead of it, but an extremely small number of those realities include Indiana hosting a first round matchup. The Hoosiers’ rooting interests are almost solely opponent-related.

So let’s take a look at those opponents.

Below is an opponent-adjusted EPA/play chart created each week by Bud Davis (the annotations are his, not mine).

The initial Georgia matchup actually isn’t bad overall, according to this chart, even though there is a very stark difference in talent and the team-to-team matchup is tough for Indiana’s OL. Going to Athens would be a tall task, too, where others would be marginally easier.

This is how Indiana would stack up against Georgia, when considering some advanced analytics:

Observations:

• Georgia QB Carson Beck (10th in QBR) would need to beat Indiana. Georgia gets the 41st-most rushing success against an Indiana defense that is perhaps the best run defense in the country. This might be the case for most teams, but Beck has had some serious struggles at times, including three games of 3+ INTs.

• Georgia’s DL is talented but it surrenders ground in the run game (46th in line yards allowed per rush). The Bulldogs use their LBs in pass rush more than any other SEC team (4 in the top-12 in pass-rush snaps), which the nation knows is a struggle for Indiana’s interior OL. This would make it difficult to throw for Kurtis Rourke.

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Who Else Might Indiana Play?