The Prodigious Rise of IUWBB

This has been nearly a decade in the making.

My favorite beat to cover when I was a student-journalist at IU was the women’s basketball beat. The energy the players brought every practice we were allowed to watch, the approachability and patience of Teri Moren, the absolute grit the teams played with, it was an immense joy to cover a team that I also appreciated on a personal level. 

I remember the first day I ever saw them play was during Moren’s first year in Bloomington, and there couldn’t have been more than a couple thousand people in the stands. Larryn Brooks was the star, but everyone in Assembly Hall knew Tyra Buss and Amanda Cahill (freshmen at the time) were the future. And even then, I remember thinking to myself, there had to be a  definite ceiling on this program. (Hahaha, fool!)

But if you’ve been along for the ride that is Indiana Women’s Basketball, you know the chain that ventures from Day 1 until today has so few links – Buss, Cahill, Alexis Gassion, Jenn Anderson, Ali Patberg, Brenna Wise, Grace Berger, Mackenzie Holmes – that if one of those links doesn’t hold, this program isn’t where it is today. Yes, there are others that will be discussed later, such as the significance of Nicole Cardano-Hillary and Chloe Moore-McNeil, but ultimately, these are players who carried the weight of the program throughout Moren’s era, and she and her staff squeezed about as much as one could expect from those teams.

Note: The vertical axis begins at 100. Indiana was not last in the nation in Defensive Rating in 2014-15.

You might notice that the graph above, depicting Indiana’s HerHoopsStats Ratings during Moren’s tenure have three distinct segments – 1. The beginning, where there was steady improvement, 2. The bridge, where there appeared to be a dip in quality before…, 3. The Glory Days, where Indiana peaked into the top-25 teams nationally and just never left. 

Let’s explore those three segments of Moren’s tenure and reminisce on how Indiana Women’s Basketball got to where it is today.

The Beginning (2014-2018)

Upon Moren’s arrival, three players graduated and five players transferred out of the program, and IU Women’s Basketball was not in good shape at all, in culture and in talent. Moren inherited a slew of young women – Larryn Brooks, Alexis Gassion, Taylor Agler, Jenn Anderson, Lyndsey Leikem, and Karlee McBride – who were all entering their sophomore seasons. Added that offseason were Buss, Cahill, Jess Walter, and Maura Muensterman, though the latter two wouldn’t last more than a couple seasons in the program. 

Brooks, Gassion, and Agler were each foundational pieces to the final Curt Miller team, but Brooks was really the only standout in those first two seasons in Bloomington, as she ranked 6th in the conference in both points per game (16.3) and assists per game (4.5) in 20113-14. She also ranked 9th in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio. She had a fairly similar season in Moren’s first year (2014-15) but with a reduced scoring load, and she transferred to Texas Tech that offseason. 

Even with a roster chocked full of inexperience, Moren created a more efficient offense based in driving to the basket, rather than the 2013-14 offense, which led the Big Ten in three-point shooting rate and was still last in most shooting categories. There also wasn’t a practice I saw that didn’t feature heavy free throw practice by the Hoosiers, and in the first year under Moren, Indiana saw massive improvements in that category too. 

Source: HerHoopsStats.com

With the turnover between seasons, Moren’s first team had one player (Jenn Anderson) who was 6-foot-3, which caused major setbacks in rebounding and post presence. For reference, current freshman Yardon Garzon is 6-foot-3. Until Kym Royster arrived in Year 2 under Moren, and sometimes even after, there wasn’t much to be done at the 5 if Anderson wasn’t on the floor. They’d typically just move Cahill from the 4 to the 5 until Anderson could return. This resulted in Indiana ranking 13th in rebounding margin within the Big Ten in 2014-15 and 8th in 2015-16. This – size and rebounding – was Indiana’s greatest setback during these years.

Moren’s teams in those first four years leading up to the 2018 WNIT Championship were extremely insular, with intense pressure on the starters to replicate performances every game because the backups weren’t anywhere near as effective. Buss, Gassion, and Cahill each played all 34 games and were on the court for no fewer than 33 minutes per game each in 2016-17. 

However, they were consistent. Those three recorded 0.94, 0.93, and 0.99 points per possession, respectively. Jenn Anderson, the thankless fighter in the post, added 1.10 points per possession and possessed an uncanny ability to draw charges. Buss, Cahill, and Gassion each recorded win shares of greater than 7, and Anderson had 5. No other player reached 2. These are the godmothers of Teri Moren’s Indiana Women’s Basketball program. 

The table below will also explain their exceptionalism that year.

Source: HerHoopsStats

Note: No other Big Ten team in 2016-17 had four players in the top-20 of PER. Only Maryland had three. All others had zero, one, or two.

As far as efficiency, this team was the best team Moren put together in what we could call the pre-Grace Berger days (2014-2018). The Hoosiers finished 4th in the Big Ten, one game out of a tie for 3rd, and they were given the No. 1 seed in the WNIT. The Hoosiers were knocked out in the Elite Eight, though, which would go down, in retrospect, as one of the most disappointing results of a Teri Moren-led season.

The Bridge (2017-2019)

The next season (2017-18) was much of the same for Indiana – perhaps even more so – using the exact same starting five 36 of 37 games (Bendu Yeaney missed one game). Tyra Buss averaged 40.0 minutes in those 37, meaning she played nearly every possible minute available, which was a number no one in the country matched during her career (2014-19). Amanda Cahill averaged 38.0, Yeaney (freshman) averaged 35.1, star freshman Jaelynn Penn averaged 34.6, and Kym Royster (who replaced Jenn Anderson after graduation) averaged 28.2 with Linsey Marchese spotting her. And that was basically the team. Hardly anyone else contributed substantially. The Hoosiers progressed from three 1,000-minute players to five.

Source: HerHoopsStats.com

This 2017-18 team saw regression on an individual level across the board on defense, particularly with the losses of Gassion and Anderson, and while it improved from three (79th to 33rd in the nation), it also showed a bit of regression on offense. But largely, the team maintained its identity of scoring most of its points inside and getting to the free throw line (free throw rate improved from 143rd in the nation to 67th between seasons).

That team was hanging by a thread, yet they, according to Moren, established a winning standard for the future of the program.

Those two teams – the 2016-17 team that was bounced in the WNIT Quarterfinals and the 2017-18 team that won the WNIT Championship, both essentially on fumes – bridged Indiana into the program we understand today. The following season (2018-19) featured the debut of unprecedented stars, such as Ali Patberg, Grace Berger, Brenna Wise, and Aleksa Gulbe, ushered in by Moren and the promise her program was beginning to show.

Finally, Moren’s teams could stretch to 7- and 8-woman rotations with each contributor adding additional talent to the grit that Moren built her program on. This helped the defense finally match the offense Moren’s Indiana teams boasted. That 2018-19 season felt the departures of Buss and Cahill, as Indiana dropped to 10th in the Big Ten standings, the worst since Moren’s first year (12th), and boasted the worst HerHoopsStats Rating (71st nationally) of Moren’s entire tenure. 

Even with Patberg, Wise, and others, the roster wasn’t what we know it as today. Not quite yet. Indiana finished last in the Big Ten in assists (12.0)! Today, they are 6th in the nation, with 18.4. They were also 10th in rebounding margin, 12th in steals, and 10th in turnover margin. 

Given the statistical struggles, that team still made the NCAA Tournament and advanced to the Second Round, thanks in large part to Patberg, who recorded the 10th-best Player Efficiency Rating, and Wise, who recorded the 13th-best Player Efficiency Rating. 

That would quickly rebound though.

Glory Days (2019-present)

The beginning of the 2019 season is when the team developed into more of the roster we recognize today in 2023. The Hoosiers overall HerHoopsRating jumped from 71st in the nation – the worst of Teri Moren’s tenure – to 12th. And the defense, what Moren’s teams seemed destined to be known for eventually, finally rose to 9th in the country.

Patberg continued to emerge, as she improved her efficiency from 10th-best in the Big Ten to 5th-best, and Aleksa Gulbe developed into the second-most efficient starter behind Patberg. This opportunity opened because of Kym Royster’s departure. Mackenzie Holmes also arrived from Maine and was the ultimate heat check in the country, posting 10.8 points per game and a PER of 32.6 on just 19 minutes per game. These changes inside took some pressure off Wise, whose minutes dropped from 33 per game to 29, though she continued to lead the team in rebounds per game (5.9).

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the 2019-20 season, though, was five-star prospect Grace Berger’s development as a scorer. After posting 5.5 points per game the previous season, Indiana’s staff opened her up on offense as a full-time starter, and she averaged 6 more shots per game and scored 13.1 points. Her emergence created a three-headed backcourt of Patberg, Berger, and Penn.

Source: CBB Analytics

Nine Hoosiers averaged double-digit minutes, and five averaged around 5 rebounds per game. That team would leap from 10th to 4th in the Big Ten standings, though the postseason was canceled due to COVID-19. It was clear, though, that the “future” that fans and those within the program imagined was quickly approaching. 

What the Hoosiers were to become was realized in the 2020-21 season, when they made a run to the NCAA Elite Eight. The Hoosiers maintained several of the contributors from the COVID season, such as Patberg, Berger, Gulbe, Holmes, and Penn, but Wise had graduated. Holmes was developing into one of the best players in the Big Ten, with the 3rd-best PER in the conference, next to Berger, who posted the 2nd-best PER on the team. But several misses in recruiting left much of the bench less effective than what would’ve been ideal. 

Insert Nicole Cardano-Hillary, the Spanish transfer guard from George Mason with two years of eligibility. Penn, who underwent offseason surgery in 2020, opted out for the rest of the year in January after injuring her ankle. She would transfer to UCLA. Cardano-Hillary stepped in for Penn and provided a much-needed defensive presence in the backcourt, raising her defensive PER from the 50th percentile the season before to the 81st percentile at Indiana.

The Hoosiers leaned heavily on that new starting five – Patberg, Berger, Gulbe, Holmes, Cardano-Hillary. In fact, no one else averaged double-digit minutes per game. Patberg and Berger were emerging as the best Indiana backcourt duo in recent memory as Patberg averaged 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game and Berger averaged 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists.

In 2021-22, the year Indiana advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, the Hoosiers didn’t add much to their roster but needed to find a more sustainable answer to the previous year’s roster. They turned to sophomore Chloe Moore-McNeil to aid in expanding the rotation. 

The Tennessee product averaged 21.2 minutes per game and eventually grew into more of a scoring threat in the later parts of the season, even though she only averaged 5.2 points per game. She wasn’t ineffective on defense by any means, but she had room to grow, and, as we know now, she made that growth. 

There was some regression in this season. Patberg had some massive performances against big teams, such as her 16 points against UConn in the Sweet Sixteen, but overall, she posted her lowest numbers in terms of defensive rating, PER, and win shares. Her 11.6 points per game were the lowest of her career as well. It wasn’t just Patberg, though. Even Holmes showed a dip from her monster sophomore year, best summarized by her (career low!) 30.7 PER. 

What remained as an incredible 2021-22 season for Indiana Women’s Basketball ended with some questions. Patberg, Gulbe, and Cardano-Hillary, who all played 1,000-plus minutes in 2021-22, were all leaving Berger and Holmes in Bloomington. Could Moore-McNeil develop into the player IU needed her to be? Who would fill the massive gaps in the starting lineup? Was this nearing the end of the IU upward trend?

Well…

2022-23: This is actually happening!

In a fairly remarkable recruiting effort, Indiana added three players that would keep the Hoosiers’ floor from dropping – Sydney Parrish, Sara Scalia, and Yardon Garzon.

Parrish, an Indianapolis native, left Oregon after two seasons and has quickly become a fan favorite in Bloomington. Her PER has spiked from 15.2 last season to 23.0 this year, primarily because of her defense, which has risen from the 53rd percentile last year to the 94th percentile in 2022-23. And not only is she taking more shots per game (9.1), she’s hitting them at a better clip (44.7%) than at any time in her career.

Scalia left a starting role at Minnesota, where she was averaging 35 minutes per game, for a bench role at Indiana, where she’s averaging 27 minutes. The definition of a sharpshooter, Scalia was in the 100th percentile for attempted threes at Minnesota and was hitting them 41.3% of the time. Now that’s fallen to the 90th percentile attempted (4.7) at 34.4%, which is still the 70th percentile. Most notably with Scalia, though, is her defense. Her defensive efficiency rating has risen from a dismal 1st and 3rd percentiles in the last two seasons to the 77th percentile. 

Noticing a trend? Indiana targeted shooting and defending in their recruitment. 

Garzon has displayed those traits as well as anyone in their freshman season at Indiana too. At 6-foot-3, she was destined to be an elite defender, and she’s posted an 84.2 defensive efficiency rating, the third-best on the team among regular contributors and in the 87th percentile nationally. She also takes more threes (4.8) than anyone on the team and hits them 46.9% (99th percentile) of the time. That percentage leads the Big Ten by 4.1%.

Pair those three with (a healthy) Berger and Holmes, and Indiana was in business. Holmes has been playing like the National Player of the Year. 

Referring back to the question of whether Moore-McNeil would develop into the player IU needed, the answer was a resounding yes. It’s resulted in the most minutes played on the roster (33.2 average). Her versatility has been huge for Indiana this year, and any postseason run will likely be in debt to her varied skillset too. 

She’s certainly not the scorer that she’s surrounded by on the floor, as she’s shooting the lowest (!!) field goal percentage of the starting five, with 44.0% and averaging another low, with 9.2 points per game. But she is second to Berger with 4.9 assists per game, second to Parrish with 1.6 steals per game, and second to Scalia in free throw percentage. She also leads the team in fewest turnovers per game and fewest personal fouls per game. She’s also become more comfortable with shooting behind the arc, averaging 3 per game and hitting 31.3% of them. Each of these stats are massive improvements on her sophomore season and signal sustainability in her skillset too. 

What defines a Teri Moren basketball team is sound fundamentals and toughness. That is what this team oozes, and apart from a few players on roster, there isn’t a ton of unique athleticism. That could be a door to defeating this Indiana team. That paired with getting IU’s playmakers in foul trouble (IU ranks in the top-24% of teams in foul rate, good luck!). Barring wear and tear in the postseason, those seem to be the only two ways to defeat this team.

Moren has built, albeit with extraordinary individual performances by select players, the No. 2 team in the nation over the course of the last nine seasons, and as you can see, the story of the road to this point has been remarkable to witness.