Week 1 Preview: Old Dominion

Prepare for Indiana's Week 1 matchup against the Old Dominion Monarchs with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

Aug 26, 2025

It’s finally here: Week 1 of what may be the most anticipated season in Indiana Football history. Season ticket sales are up 50% between seasons (according to AD Scott Dolson), Indiana Football is at the heart of scheduling debates and changes (if you’re the SEC), and folks are eager to determine who the “next Indiana” might be (read here about why there isn’t one). All offseason, energized Indiana Football fans have closely followed recruiting news and portal swaps to determine if this ride will continue into 2025 (it will) and how Cignetti is building for the future, and Indiana University, as an institution, has continued its investment into the program – ponying up to keep both coordinators and the strength and conditioning coach away from blue bloods.

Curt Cignetti finally begins Year 2 at Indiana after an unprecedented Year 1.

What else is left to say, except what Cignetti said at the end of the first game-week press conference on Monday: “Now it's time to go to war. It's time for business now.”

Let’s do this.

In this preview:

Opponent Overview
Indiana SP+ Progress
Advanced Stat Preview
QB Profiles
ODU OL Preview
ODU Key Contributors
What BSB is Watching For

Opponent Overview

Do not sleep on Old Dominion! The Monarchs have gone 20-30 under current head coach Ricky Rahne since 2021 – arguably the toughest time to be a coach at a G5 program in the sport’s history – and in those seasons, they’ve beaten Virginia Tech (2022), lost to Virginia by 2 (2022), lost to Wake Forest by 3 (2023), and lost to South Carolina by 4 (2024). Four of ODU’s seven matchups against Power 4 programs under Rahne have been within one possession. They also nearly defeated a Curt Cignetti-led, top-25 James Madison team in 2023, when current Indiana QB Grant Wilson threw for 277 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions in a 30-27 loss.

In the last four seasons, ODU has appeared in two bowl games (lost them both), and one of those appearances was in Rahne’s first season as a head coach (2021). The 45-year-old spent five seasons at Kansas State, three seasons at Vanderbilt, and six seasons at Penn State after following James Franklin (the last two as its OC) before taking the head job at ODU – which cancelled its 2020 season. Rahne is 0-2 against Cignetti.

There is a lot of optimism around this Old Dominion team in Sun Belt circles, following its 5-7 2024 season, and if any coach is going to be taking a Sun Belt team lightly, it won’t be Cignetti.

Indiana SP+ Progress

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 46th percentile after its game versus FIU in Week 1.

Notes on SP+ Progression:

Indiana’s No. 23 SP+ ranking is its best preseason ranking since 2021, when it began the year ranked No. 29.
This is also the first season that Indiana has begun a season above the 40th percentile since 2021.

Advanced Stat Preview

Some Observations:

ODU Explosives: ODU had one of the strangest profiles I’ve seen, and it’s because of their explosive plays, both allowed and converted. The Monarchs were top-10 in offensive explosion and bottom-20 in explosion allowed. That takes the consistency metrics (like a decent defensive success rate and a poor offensive conversion rate) and overwrites them.
ODU Defensive Success Rate: ODU returns the 18th-most defensive production in the nation and adds LB Jason Henderson back into the fold (read more about him below). This should be a stout Sun Belt front. Surely, limiting the explosive plays is priority No. 1 for sixth-year DC Blake Seiler.
Indiana’s Defensive Success vs. the Rush: Running the ball is what ODU did well offensively in 2024. Indiana’s rushing defense was the best in the nation. Can the Hoosiers carry that into 2025 by limiting this offense’s rushing production, particularly from the QB position? It’ll be worthwhile experience for later opponents too.
ODU’s Turnover Margin: ODU owned a negative turnover margin in 2024 and ranked 88th in the FBS in turnover margin per game. Indiana ranked 3rd in turnover margin per game. The Hoosiers have the opportunity to make some noise early this season, especially against a team with several new faces.

QB Profiles

The QB position at Old Dominion actually has a strong tie to Indiana, as Grant Wilson – Indiana’s QB3 this season – led the 2023 ODU offense after following his OC, Kevin Decker (still ODU’s OC), from Fordham following the 2022 season, when Fordham had three (!) thousand-yard receivers. Former Indiana receiver DeQuece Carter transferred to IU from that same 2022 Fordham team. Wilson didn’t exactly lose the ODU QB job to Colton Joseph, though. He struggled with injuries throughout the 2024 season, allowing Joseph the opportunity to cement himself, and he did.

As a redshirt freshman, Joseph was rough around the edges but was at his most efficient when he was carrying the football. The ODU pressure rate allowed was simply too high for a young QB, leaving him to find answers on the ground (85th percentile in scramble rate), but it kind of worked. Joseph carried the ball 100 times for 719 yards (12th-highest yards/carry among FBS QBs), and in high-leverage situations, like third down and red zone plays, he had strong success rates and high rush rates. He scored 11 rushing touchdowns, tied with Georgia Tech’s Haynes King for 9th-most by QBs. One big problem, though, is that he fumbled 10 times – tied for 14th among QBs – hence his turnover-worthy play rate.

Ideally for ODU, he has developed as a passer, which is something ODU head coach Ricky Rahne has noted recently. Joseph actually tied Kurtis Rourke for 9th-fewest interceptions thrown (5) last season but lacked the upside with his arm. ODU finished the season ranked 110th in passing success rate, plus Joseph lost his most-trusted receiver, Isiah Paige. They added a crop of new receivers for 2025, including 6-5, 216-pound former Utah receiver Sidney Mbanasor, but plenty of questions remain at OL.

Observations:

Mendoza’s completion percentage ranked 10th among qualifying FBS QBs, directly behind Kurtis Rourke (68.9%).
Current Indiana slot WR Jonathan Brady was Mendoza’s most-targeted receiver in the following scenarios: second down, red zone, and when the game was within 10 points.
Behind a very poor OL (28th percentile in pressure rate), Mendoza tended to run the ball in high-leverage situations (third down, red zone, fourth quarter).
Mendoza specialized in short, quick passes in 2024. That will likely be the case in 2025 as well but with far more shots downfield than he was able to take at Cal. His depth of target should increase by a decent margin.

For much more on Fernando Mendoza, read BSB’s season preview for the QB here.

ODU OL Preview

Observations:

The ODU OL is not quite as bad as the grades above show. It got the 26th-largest push on rushing plays, which was at the heart of the offense’s success last season. But Indiana’s defensive front is a different monster.
Old Dominion only has one lineman (Zach Barlev) who’s considered anywhere near FBS average.
Projected center Ryan Joyce is in his seventh (!) season after spending six seasons at Fordham. The connection with former Fordham OC Kevin Decker is surely why he’s now at ODU. He’s never played center before, but if he plays well for the Monarchs this year, this could be a respectable unit in the Sun Belt in 2025.
RT Stephen Dubose-Bourne has been starting at ODU long enough to have been Grant Wilson’s RT in 2023 – the only lineman on this line to claim that.
All but Joyce played significant snaps for ODU in 2024, and all but Joyce have spent their entire careers with the Monarchs.

ODU Key Contributors

QB Colton Joseph: The in-depth breakdown on Joseph in above in the QB profiles, but he makes this offense tick, especially now, when nearly all of his skilled teammates from 2024 are gone and replaced.
RB Ke'Travion Hargrove: While returning RB Devin Roche will likely start, Ke’Travion Hargrove signed with Mississippi State as the No. 20 RB in the 2021 class. He’s been passed around by MSU, Memphis, and Grambling State, but the size (6-0, 210) is there and so is the potential.
WR Sidney Mbanasor: ODU added nine new WRs and TEs, and the two returners combined for 2 catches in 2024. These roles are wide open, but 6-5, 216-pound Sidney Mbanasor – former Utah WR and top-800 signee – has the natural ability to assume a key role for the Monarchs, who have a ton of size at WR this season.
LB Jason Henderson: Henderson might be the most productive defender in the nation. He recorded 436 tackles, 34 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles in three seasons (2021-23) before suffering an injury that kept him out of the 2024 season. If he’s healthy, he’s dangerous.
Transfer DBs: This offseason, ODU added transfer DBs from TCU, Kansas State, Purdue, and Montana. The defensive backfield should have plenty of talent.

What BSB is Watching For

How does Indiana contain Colton Joseph?

Where there was a successful trend in ODU’s 2024 offense, QB Colton Joseph was likely responsible. Overcoming the 80th-ranked offensive success rate with the 9th-highest offensive explosion rate? That was because ODU was 11th nationally in rushing plays of 10+ yards, and Joseph led all ODU rushers in that category. ODU was 25th in third-down success rate and 4th in EPA after its opponent’s 40-yard line? Joseph owned a 51% personal success rate on third down and carried the ball 46% of the time in the red zone. If he wasn’t the heart of the ODU offense in 2024, he fueled what it did well, which was 1.) run the football and 2.) find explosives.

It appears Ricky Rahne may want to get Joseph some help – retooling at RB and adding nine new pass-catchers through the portal – but how Indiana handles Joseph can inform the public on how it might approach and perform in games like Kennesaw State, Illinois, Iowa (!), Michigan State (!), Penn State, and potentially Maryland (!).

How does Indiana run against ODU?

Old Dominion faced the 14th-most rushing attempts nationally in 2024, as teams ran at the Monarchs 40+ times per game. Yet, ODU allowed an above average rate of 4.27 yards per carry and allowed the 23rd-best success rate on the ground. Since the Monarchs return the 18th-most defensive production, this should be an even stronger front in 2025.

Indiana has its three-headed backfield, with Roman Hemby, Lee Beebe, and Kaelon Black set to tout the rock this season, and Indiana’s strength on the OL should be its run blocking. This is a really solid Week 1 test for that phase of the Hoosier offense, and I’m excited to see how it unfolds – not only how the RBs carry the ball but also what a Zach Horton-less rushing attack looks like and how athletic the linemen seem.

Last season, though, throughout the first half of the schedule, it didn’t seem to matter which perceived mismatch Indiana had offensively, Mike Shanahan did what he thought would produce. If Indiana struggles to run the ball, we may see some Fernando Mendoza action.

How does Indiana experiment with its defensive multiplicity?

I discussed this near the end of CrimsonCast’s recent episode, but Indiana needs to determine the best version of its defense quickly this season, with Illinois and Iowa – identified in the preseason as two of the three key games – waiting in Weeks 4 and 5. I’ve written a lot recently (here, here, and here) about the embarrassment of versatile riches Bryant Haines has at his disposal, particularly on the defensive front but also across the rest of the defense too.

So what does that mean?

We saw during the Spring Game that Indiana’s defense was constantly rotating, mostly based on the opponent’s personnel but also on circumstance, and part of that rotation was a third LB, in which case the Rover would come off the field. And there is a reality where both the Rover and the third LB would be off the field for a fifth DL (which would sometimes be a LB who can play on the DL, like Wyatt or Quentin Clark).
Indiana’s DL is filled with guys who can play multiple spots, including Hosea Wheeler, who can play nearly anywhere, and Kellan Wyatt, who can play standing or with his hand in the ground on the edge and in space. Dominique Ratcliff can play in the A- or B-gap too. Mikail Kamara, as Zen Michalski said this week, is “his own player” and will line up anywhere between standing up on the far edge or down in the B-gap.
Haines has noted that he wants to improve Indiana’s performance in the red zone, which did improve later in the season, when Indiana began going to more three-LB sets. The multiplicity and flexibility up front will help there, and if ODU gets into the red zone, this will be something to watch.
Against ODU: Since Colton Joseph can run well (will be common for Indiana this season), I’d expect to see a lot of extra LBs and/or edge players, meaning less of the Rover, unless ODU (with its added pass-catchers) plays more spread out than 2024.

What do special teams look like for Indiana?

I wrote about Brendan Franke, Indiana’s kickoff specialist from Texas State, and the stark contrast between his 2024 season and Indiana’s kickoff by-committee last year. Read all of that info here, and keep an eye on kickoffs instead of taking a bathroom break after scores.

In addition to Franke, though, UCF transfer punter Mitch McCarthy will be taking over for James Evans with a rollout style of punting. Read more about McCarthy here. Redshirt sophomore kicker Nico Radicic has been developing for multiple years now, and while he went 69-for-69 on extra points in 2024 and has gone 11-for-11 on kicks shorter than 40 yards out during his career, he’s only attempted three kicks longer than 40 yards (2-for-3). Is this something he’s been developing, or will the staff reserve him for the short-yardage situations and stick with fourth-down attempts further away? That will be an ongoing question.

Lastly, Cignetti noted there has been competition for punt returning. It seems likely that Solomon Vanhorse will be returning kickoffs again, but Cignetti said “two or three” guys are competing for punt return duties. Two of those three are likely Vanhorse and Jonathan Brady.