Week 1 Recap: Ohio State & QB Battle

A snapshot of Indiana's 23-3 loss vs. Ohio State and some thoughts on the IU QB battle

Well, I must admit, that Ohio State 23-3 loss went down smoother than I anticipated, and I came away a bit more optimistic about the season than I went in, as long as Indiana addresses some key issues in even a remote way. I’ll have more on the defense – which was impressive – later this week, but the QB battle must be discussed before anything else this week. 

Below are notable stats, PFF Grades, and snap counts. I tried to stay away from the most obvious grades and stats, since most folks likely already recognized them themselves. 

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Notable Individual PFF Grades

Good

• Phillip Dunnam – PFF Defensive Grade – 80

• Aaron Casey – PFF Defensive Grade – 76

• Jamari Sharpe – Coverage Grade – 68

• Donaven McCulley – PFF Offensive Grade – 66

• Mike Katic – Pass-Blocking Grade – 78

• Zach Carpenter – Pass-Blocking Grade – 77

• Kahlil Benson – Pass-Blocking Grade – 70

• Carter Smith – Pass-Blocking Grade – 67

• Noah Pierre – Tackling Grade – 75 (much improved from 2022)

Not Great

• Josh Sanguinetti – PFF Defensive Grade – 49

• Lanell Carr – PFF Defensive Grade – 56

• Kobee Minor – PFF Defensive Grade – 56

• Matt Bedford – Pass-Blocking Grade – 22

• Matt Bedford – Run-Blocking Grade – 52

• Anthony Jones – PFF Defensive Grade – 39

Snap Counts

Indiana released a depth chart before the game Saturday, and at some positions, it immediately deviated. Freshman Carter Smith started at LT over Josh Sales, Nic Toomer played the most of any CB, Bradley Archer played far more than any TE, EJ Williams played less than Donaven McCulley, Phillip Dunnam played more than Josh Sanguinetti, and Myles Jackson played less than both Lanell Carr and Anthony Jones. None of these highlighted players were named starters on that depth chart.

Linked here is a running snap counts document I’ll maintain throughout the season, and below is a screenshot that includes all snap counts.

Source: Pro Football Focus

Notable Snap Counts

• Carter Smith – LT – 48 (starting LT despite released depth chart)

• Bradley Archer – TE – 44

• Donaven McCulley – WR – 42

• Jaylin Lucas – RB – 31

• Dequece Carter – WR – 20

• EJ Williams – WR – 16

• Jacob Mangum-Farrar – LB – 61 (clear LB No. 2)

• Phillip Dunnam – FS – 47 (most snaps at FS spot)

• Nic Toomer – CB – 47 (most among CBs)

• Jamari Sharpe – CB – 42 (staff trusts the true freshman)

• Anthony Jones – BULL – 39

• Josh Rudolph – LB – 3

Notable Statistics

• Indiana’s offense finished with a 23% success rate. Last seasons’ season-long success rate was 37%.

• Indiana’s defensive havoc rate (8.4%) was well higher than Ohio State’s (5.4%).

• Indiana recorded just 2 open-field yards on rushes.

• Jaylin Lucas was used on 21% of Indiana’s offensive plays but only on 4% of its passing plays. 

• Only one Ohio State offensive lineman received a run-blocking grade at or above average. Donovan Jackson at LG received a failing grade. They were all very effective in pass-blocking though. 

• Ohio State was just 2-for-12 on third down.

• Indiana finished with 153 total yards, a feat only achieved once during the Nick Sheridan Era (vs. Ohio State in 2021) and not since 2006 vs. Michigan (131 yards) before that. 

• In the 13 games since Walt Bell began as OC at Indiana, IU has failed to reach 3.0 yards per rush in 7 games. It averaged 2.2 vs. Ohio State.

• Each of Marvin Harrison Jr. (18 yards) and Emeka Egbuka (16 yards) had only been limited to those totals once since they began starting at Ohio State in 2022. Never on the same day. In addition to this, Harrison Jr. posted the worst PFF Offensive Grade (55) of his starting career, and Egbuka (56) posted his second-worst.

• From 2001-2010, Indiana averaged 10.1 points scored against Ohio State. From 2011-2016 (Kevin Wilson Era), IU scored an average of 25.7. From 2017-2023, IU has averaged 16.6. Indiana also scored 3 points against Ohio State in 2006 and hadn’t scored fewer since 1997 (0). 

• No starting offensive linemen allowed a sack. 

• Phillip Dunnam posted the 12th-best PFF Defensive Grade among all Big Ten defenders and the 18th-best grade among all safeties nationally in Week 1. He added the 9th-best coverage grade too.

• Matt Bedford posted the worst pass- and run-blocking grades on the team. 

The QB Battle vs. Ohio State

Sources: Pro Football Focus, College Football Data

Tom Allen said it in his postgame press conference: it’s not fair to grade either QB based on the Ohio State game alone; however, 1. we certainly can judge the offensive scheme around the QB battle, and 2. this is all the public has to make its own judgment. Obviously, we continue to evaluate the QBs as we progress, but none of it is making much sense.

Before getting into it, though, it’s clear that Indiana should’ve brought in a more experienced QB this offseason, in addition to Jackson. Imagine if Indiana had played this game with a dedicated offensive system built around a known commodity at QB, instead of carrying the QB battle into the game. Because of this, Indiana wasted an opportunity – one that its defense earned – to compete with Ohio State, something that doesn’t present itself to the Hoosiers every season (see the 51-10 loss to OSU during the successful 2019 season). Instead, Indiana seemed more interested in evaluating its QBs rather than competing on offense, as shown in no obvious offensive gameplan and erratic play-calling. Even the scripted drives seemed to place the QBs in specific scenarios rather than to attack the Ohio State defense. And in addition to this, the offensive line wasn’t the liability. It posted the best PFF Offensive Grades collectively on the offense.

It seemed like the staff wanted to give the first and last quarters to Sorsby and the middle-30 to Jackson. Sorsby finished with 28 snaps, and Jackson had 27. I’d anticipate a flipped approach for Indiana State, since Allen already announced Jackson as a starter for that game.

Whatever semblance of an offensive scheme we saw from Indiana suggested it wants – or needs – to run a system similar to the end of 2022, with RPOs, traditional options, blocking TEs and WRs, and limited passing. We saw Jackson and Sorsby operate two slightly different styles of this offense against Ohio State, most indicated by their usage rates. Jackson’s usage rate – percent of plays used as a passer, a rusher, or a receiving target – was far lower than Sorsby’s. Sorsby was used on 43% of Indiana’s total offensive plays while Jackson was used on just 14%. Sorsby was also used on 79% of Indiana’s passing plays, as we saw him attempt most of the team’s passes in the fourth quarter (why so late?). This means that Jackson served purely as a game manager, getting the ball to the players it needed to go to on each play, mostly to players in the backfield, without being much of a passing or running threat himself. Sorsby was much more of an active participant in the offensive plays, as we saw him tuck it himself a couple more times than Jackson (5 carries to 3) and pass the ball far more (15 passes to 5). The increased passing volume seemed QB-based as well, as Indiana threw the ball on 10 consecutive plays after re-inserting Sorsby into the game near the end of the third quarter and into the fourth.

When Indiana began throwing the ball in the fourth quarter, it recorded a 40% success rate on passing downs in the 4th quarter, its only plus grade among disaggregated success rates. Nothing else was close. 

Sorsby finished the game as one of three offensive players with a positive EPA (estimated points added per average play), with Cam Camper and Chris Turner, which is a bit surprising since Indiana scored its only points on a Jackson-led drive. 

Some additional statistics on the QBs:

• Sorsby-led drives’ average starts were at the Indiana 11-yard line (3 began inside IU’s 10-yard line). Jackson-led drives started at Indiana’s 31-yard line. 

• Indiana gained 78 yards on Sorsby-led drives and 75 yards on Jackson-led drives. 

• Sorsby was under pressure (7 times) more often than Jackson dropped back (5). 

• Sorsby forced 2 missed tackles and recorded 10 yards after contact (tied with Jaylin Lucas for second-most on the team). Jackson didn’t force any missed tackles.

• Sorsby recorded one of two rushes of 10-plus yards for Indiana. Chris Turner had the other. Both were 11 yards long.

• Indiana designed quick passes, as both Sorsby and Jackson had 2.3 seconds to throw whenever they weren’t under pressure. In those scenarios, Sorsby recorded a 72 passing grade and Jackson recorded a 50. 

Personally, I came away feeling as if this was an offense built for Dexter Williams, assuming he can pass the ball better than we’ve seen in the past. It’s an offensive scheme that seems to fit the skillsets of Williams, Sorsby, and 2024 QB commit Tim Carpenter specifically. With that said, I remain confused with where Jackson fits, especially in 2023. But I’d like to see Jackson with a larger passing volume at some point as well, just to see for myself what he can do.

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