Week 1 Recap: Old Dominion

Now that the dust has settled, let's take a deeper look at Indiana's matchup against Old Dominion.

There are some data visualizations that would normally be in this edition of Bite-Sized Bison that I needed to hold onto for later use as data from BSB’s data providers/sources catches up (a common Week 1 hiccup). I will include those graphics (Big Ten QB comparison chart, Big Ten offensive and defensive EPA/play chart, DL havoc rate chart, etc.) in the Preview for Week 2, if need be. Thank you for your patience.

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Last season, Indiana didn’t trail an opponent until its ninth game of the season, against Michigan State; it took one defensive snap in 2025. The hype going into Indiana’s 2025 season was immediately met with a 75-yard touchdown carry by Old Dominion QB Colton Joseph — the most obvious way ODU can move the ball. The Hoosiers leveled out from there, eventually finishing the game with a 92.5% postgame win expectancy — extremely decisive victory. Big Ten opponents with lower postgame win expectancies were Rutgers (77%), Nebraska (36%), Ohio State (18%), Northwestern (0.4%), and UCLA (0%).

It was, in several ways, a shakier start to the season than 2024, which began in this fashion against an FIU team that eventually ended the season ranked 112th by ESPN SP+ and 3-5 in C-USA games (not a good team!):

This Old Dominion team is currently ranked 101st in SP+ but is anticipated to be a bowl team and be very competitive in the Sun Belt this season. This team was not 2024 FIU. Yet, Indiana, even with squandering a slew of scoring opportunities and looking half-baked in the passing game, dominated.

ODU’s two explosive QB scoring runs (49% of ODU’s total yardage) are doing a lot of work for the Monarchs in the chart above, as ODU played just 46 offensive snaps. Indiana played 92! The success rates are a much more accurate comparison of offensive consistency here. Indiana missed on its explosive opportunities, which would’ve boosted the EPA figures. The Hoosiers stayed much closer to the mean and found positivity on 51% of plays.

Overall, this was an ODU team that would have most likely beaten recent Indiana teams with comparative Week 1 shakiness, but this game was never in doubt. And two weeks from now, I’ll be keeping an eye on Old Dominion and Virginia Tech, which lost 24-11 to South Carolina on Sunday, because this Old Dominion team will be tough for the Hokies.

For several more thoughts from BSB on the game, be sure to read the instant reactions from Saturday night, linked below.

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Indiana Offensive Snap Counts & Grades