Week 10 Preview: Michigan State

Prepare for Indiana's Week 10 matchup against the Michigan State Spartans with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

There are some strange vibes around this game that exist outside of analytics. Michigan State is positioned as the worst of the four teams Indiana was set to take on between bye weeks — Nebraska, Washington, MSU, Michigan — and presents what could be argued as the first true road Big Ten game, with UCLA 1.) being in LA, 2.) being new to the Big Ten, and 3.) not offering much of a daunting environment, and then Northwestern’s mess of a home stadium. The Spartans also seemingly break what has been a convenient crescendo of opponent quality throughout the Big Ten season, with a dip after Washington and followed by Michigan. There isn’t much precedent to assume Curt Cignetti will struggle to have the team focused, but it is a different obstacle for the fanbase to approach in Year One.

Speaking of Year One, Cignetti is absolutely shattering this chart after 8 games.

To offer further context of the quality of this Indiana team so far, Brian Fremeau of BCFToys.com maintains the FEI ratings seen in weekly Advanced Stat Previews and developed a rating called F+, which combines FEI and ESPN SP+ ratings. He posted the below visualization mapping out the last 18 seasons of F+ ratings, highlighting the current undefeated and 1-loss teams in 2024.

Source: BCFToys.com

Indiana’s offense is not just one of the best in the country this season; it’s one of the best of the last 18 seasons. Also, FEI is a bit harsher on the defense than SP+, ranking Indiana 47th nationally compared to 21st by SP+. That makes a slight difference in the visualization.

In This Preview:

• Indiana’s SP+ Progress

• Advanced Stat Preview

• Big Ten Conversion Rates

• Big Ten Passing and Rushing Distributions

• Michigan State OL Preview

• Michigan State’s Key Contributors

• What BSB is Watching for

• Witt’s Wager: Michigan State Team Total Under 20.5

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Lastly, if you missed any of the content from Week 9 (Washington), it is linked below. All three Week 1 newsletters are free to the public for those curious what is enclosed here.

• Week 9 Recap

• Week 9 Gameday Roundup

• Week 9 Preview

Now, let’s get into the details.

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Indiana’s SP+ Progression

The chart below conveys a weekly progression of ESPN SP+ percentile rankings in the FBS, indicating each season 2019-23 with lines and this 2024 season with bars. 

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 46th percentile after its game versus FIU in Week 1.

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Advanced Stat Preview

For an explanation of how the various algorithms (FPI, SP+, FEI) in this chart work, visit a previous Preview newsletter here.