Week 11 Preview: Michigan

Prepare for Indiana's Week 11 matchup against the Michigan Wolverines with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

This Michigan program is reeling after Jim Harbaugh’s departure last offseason. The Wolverines are currently 5-4, with losses to Texas, Washington, Illinois, and Oregon, and in their five victories, they’ve averaged a scoring margin of just 8.6 points. ESPN SP+ has Michigan 30th — which is probably a bit forgiving — and ESPN FPI has them ranked 46th. Just look at this EPA chart:

Here is a similar chart but adjusted for opponents by Bud Davis (don’t be fooled by the changing axes!):

Michigan promoted former OC Sherrone Moore into the vacancy Harbaugh left, primarily after watching Moore coach Michigan to a victory over Ohio State during Harbaugh’s suspension late last season. Promoting Moore —who was a Broyles Award finalist in 2023, to be fair — seemed like an effort to maintain what could be left of the Harbaugh Era in Ann Arbor. He had never been a head coach before, at any level, and rose through the ranks from being Central Michigan’s TEs coach, to Michigan’s TEs coach, to Michigan’s OC and OL coach. He tabbed Michigan QBs coach, Kirk Campbell, as the 2024 OC after just two seasons of FBS OC experience at Old Dominion and added 20-year NFL vet Don Martindale as the DC. But Harbaugh took the program’s strength and conditioning coach and gutted the defensive side, taking the DL coach, DB coach, and — most importantly — the DC, Jesse Minter, who was the best DC in college football last season.

The Wolverines lost 18 players to the portal last season and added 9, yet still own the 5th-highest talent composite rating in the Big Ten (see below). There is plenty of talent on this roster.

Source: College Football Data

Note: “Talent” does not mean quality of players; it typically refers to how they were rated coming out of high school or out of the portal. From there, talent is developed.

Nothing lasts forever, especially in college football, so it’s understandable that Michigan would struggle to find its footing after Harbaugh left, no matter how funny it is to watch in real time. Just this season, look at Alabama after Nick Saban left and Kalen DeBoer works to establish his own regime there, or even Wisconsin, as Luke Fickell looks to build his own program there in his second season as HC. For as much hate as Ryan Day receives from his own fanbase, he’s actually done a relatively quality job of replacing a legendary coach at Ohio State. It is difficult to build equivalent administrations to some of the greatest coaches, especially as quickly as some folks want them to be built, which is why Curt Cignetti bringing his crew from JMU was so significant at Indiana.

But that doesn’t change the fact that the coaching is letting down this roster at Michigan, and I expect Indiana to actually hold the advantage in that department. There is no precedent for Indiana being favored by 14 points against Michigan, and the last time Indiana was favored at all was 1968. But it’s the coaching — whether in gameplanning, in-game adversarial strategy, or just developing the players — that has provided this separation between the two programs.

In This Preview:

• Indiana’s SP+ Progress

• Advanced Stat Preview

• Big Ten Conversion Rates

• Big Ten Passing and Rushing Distributions

• Michigan OL Preview

• Michigan’s Key Contributors

• What BSB is Watching for

• Witt’s Wager: Indiana First Half Team Total Over 14.5

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Lastly, if you missed any of the content from Week 10 (Michigan State), it is linked below. All three Week 1 newsletters are free to the public for those curious what is enclosed here.

• Week 10 Recap

• Week 10 Gameday Roundup

• Week 10 Preview

Now, let’s get into the details.

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Indiana’s SP+ Progression

The chart below conveys a weekly progression of ESPN SP+ percentile rankings in the FBS, indicating each season 2019-23 with lines and this 2024 season with bars. 

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 46th percentile after its game versus FIU in Week 1.

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Advanced Stat Preview

For an explanation of how the various algorithms (FPI, SP+, FEI) in this chart work, visit a previous Preview newsletter here.