Week 11 Preview: Penn State

Prepare for Indiana's Week 11 matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

As Indiana ends its final quarter of its regular season schedule, it is analytically the most dominant team in the country. Brian Fremeau of bcftoys.com charted the top teams’ individual game ratings, and Indiana (and Ohio State) clearly have the best resumes in the FBS.

Source: Brian Fremeau

An additional note from the chart above is related to Penn State. The Nittany Lions are ranked 23rd in FEI ratings (the order of that chart) and are also ranked 22nd in each of SP+ and FPI ratings. With the majority of preseason variables removed from these algorithms, these ratings are primarily resume- and performance-based at this point, so the computers still like Penn State — to an extent. The reason for this, at least what the above chart shows, is that while Penn State dropped two tough games against UCLA and Northwestern, it still performed fairly efficiently in its losses to Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State. When adjusting for opponent, Penn State really isn’t that far away from Indiana on a per-play basis either.

This will be Indiana’s toughest remaining opponent standing between the Hoosiers and not only a potential Big Ten Championship bid but also an undefeated regular season.

In this preview:

• Opponent Overview

• Advanced Stat Preview (The Chart)

• QB Profiles

• Penn State OL Preview

• Penn State Key Contributors

• EPA Distribution by Scenario

• What BSB is Watching For

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Opponent Overview

Penn State went all-in on this season. The Nittany Lions were a preseason favorite — if not the favorite — to win the national championship. James Franklin and his staff did everything it needed to do during the offseason: 1.) retained the 33rd-most production from 2024 (63%, via SP+), 2.) bulked up with talent at WR, 3.) bolstered a strong OL that I ranked No. 1 in the conference during preseason, 4.) shelled out the highest assistant salary ever to pull DC Jim Knowles from Ohio State (after failing to hire Bryant Haines), and 5.) built a solid, balanced environment for one of the better experience-to-talent QBs in the FBS.

But after dropping a competitive, double-overtime home game to Oregon in Week 4, Penn State went on to drop its next two conference games to UCLA and Northwestern, bringing its record to 3-3 and effectively ending any hope at a title. James Franklin was fired, Terry Smith was promoted in the interim, and things have not gotten much better for the Nittany Lions. PSU has dropped its first two games under Smith — albeit against two strong teams, in Iowa and Ohio State — and lost its starting QB, Drew Allar, to a broken ankle the same week Franklin was let go. Now, they welcome Indiana for Penn State’s first home game without Franklin at the helm.

This Penn State team, however, should not be overlooked. This is still a team comprised of the 10th-highest 247Sports Talent Composite rating, and the coordinators — Knowles and OC Andy Kotelnicki, who was responsible for the Jalon Daniels breakout at Kansas in 2023 — remain. Smith has also been at Penn State overseeing the CBs since 2014, as long as Franklin was the head coach (now longer). Penn State is not throwing in the towel.

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Advanced Stat Preview (The Chart)

Some Observations: