Week 11 Recap: Penn State

Now that the dust has settled, let's take a deeper look at Indiana's win against Penn State.

Indiana owned just a 52.1% postgame win expectancy — win probability as all essential stats are locked but shuffled to different points in the game — in its 27-24 win at Penn State on Saturday. That’s by far the lowest PWE of Indiana’s season (next-lowest was 92.9% against Old Dominion). This checks out because, if someone had told most Indiana fans the following would be true, there may have been some concern:

• Roman Hemby was IU’s leading rusher, with 55 yards.

• Charlie Becker was the leading receiver.

• Fernando Mendoza would throw 1 touchdown.

• Ethan Grunkemeyer would complete 71% of his passes.

• Indiana’s OL would allow 3 sacks and 8 TFLs.

• Elijah Sarratt would not play.

That’s obviously cherry-picking, but the collection of those events is not exactly how Indiana has found victory this season. These teams were throwing haymakers for 60 minutes.

Yet, thanks to a gutsy offensive drive late in the fourth quarter — and to Omar Cooper’s left big toe — Indiana flipped its fortunes from a 7.1% win probability to the program’s first win in Happy Valley.

There is now a 98.6% chance that Indiana finishes the season undefeated — according to BSB’s win probability model using SP+ data.

The Hoosiers have two of the worst teams in the conference left on the schedule…

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Indiana Offensive Snap Counts & Grades