Week 13 Preview: Ohio State
Prepare for Indiana's Week 13 matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes with a comprehensive BSB Preview!
Few people would’ve believed anyone who said before the season began that this Indiana-Ohio State matchup would be a top-5 contest with (some) College Football Playoff implications, but here we are, as the 10-0 Hoosiers travel to Columbus to play 9-1 Ohio State. While Indiana has built the best example of single-season improvement in 2024, Ohio State is somewhat quietly piecing together one of the best analytical seasons of the last decade. In the chart below, Indiana’s 2024 season is highlighted for its marked improvement, but Ohio State is the point furthest to the right.
If you’ve been following along weekly with Bite-Sized Bison content, you’ve likely noticed that this game was always going to be a bit of a decider, in terms of what Indiana’s ceiling could be. As has been noted on CrimsonCast a few times, Indiana’s schedule has had a natural build-up in quality of competition:
UCLA: 61st in ESPN FPI
Maryland: 64th
Northwestern: 77th
Nebraska: 51st
Washington: 44th
Michigan State: 74th
Michigan: 43rd
Ohio State: 3rd
It’s left the college football landscape learning more about this Indiana team each week. Against UCLA and Northwestern, it was legitimizing the coaching staff’s competence on the road (and in strange environments). Against Maryland, it was an initial look at Indiana’s ability to make in-game adjustments. Against Nebraska and Washington, it was raising the expectations of the Indiana OL and contextualizing Indiana’s physicality. Against Michigan, it was grinding out a win against a physically superior opponent, primarily schematically. There were obviously more takeaways from each of those games, but followers of Indiana have collected bits of evidence proving Indiana’s competence along the way, and it always felt as if it was leading to this game against Ohio State.
No matter which way you slice it, this Ohio State team is analytically the best team in the country.
Opponent-adjusted chart source: Bud Davis
Ohio State has not lost in Columbus since 2022, and during the last 10 seasons, it’s only lost at home 4 times — Michigan in 2022, Oregon in 2021, Oklahoma in 2017, and Michigan State in 2015. Indiana has not won in Columbus since 1987 and, in fact, has not beaten Ohio State since 1988’s 41-7 victory.
It wasn’t that long ago when this series saw a top-10 matchup, though. In 2020, Indiana traveled to Columbus as the No. 9 team in the nation, taking on the No. 3 Buckeyes. Mike Penix led a furious second-half comeback (491 total passing yards is the second-most in IU history), and a couple plays actually decided a game that began with a 35-7 Ohio State lead. Including the 2020 game, Indiana made a habit of playing Ohio State tougher than expected, toward the end of Kevin Wilson’s tenure and into Tom Allen’s, but this 2024 team is built on something entirely different than those previous teams, which makes this matchup one of the most intriguing in the series’ history.
It may not be the most significant game in Indiana Football history, but there’s a real argument that it could be the most significant of Indiana’s 21st Century.
Alright, we get it: these teams are good. Let’s get into the numbers.
In This Preview:
Indiana’s SP+ Progress
Advanced Stat Preview
Big Ten Conversion Rates
Big Ten Passing and Rushing Distributions
Ohio State OL Preview
Ohio State’s Key Contributors
What BSB is Watching for
The Hate for and Incredulity in Indiana
Witt’s Wager: Ohio State Team Total Under 32.5
If you missed any of the content from Week 11 (Michigan), it is linked below. All three Week 1 newsletters are free to the public for those curious what is enclosed in typical BSB content. Some bye week content is also linked, in case you missed it.
Indiana’s SP+ Progression
The chart below conveys a weekly progression of ESPN SP+ percentile rankings in the FBS, indicating each season 2019-23 with lines and this 2024 season with bars.
Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 46th percentile after its game versus FIU in Week 1.
Advanced Stat Preview
For an explanation of how the various algorithms (FPI, SP+, FEI) in this chart work, visit a previous Preview newsletter here.
BSB Stat Preview Highlights:
Ohio State’s Passing Success Rate Allowed: Even though Ohio State is ranked 14th in this defensive matric, it remains a bit of a mystery. The Buckeyes have played two effective passing offenses (Oregon and Penn State). Against Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 341 yards and 2 TDs (12% explosive passing play rate), but against Penn State, they allowed just 150 passing yards. Analytically, Indiana’s passing game is better than both of those teams, and I’d look for Indiana to seek out some explosion at times too (more on this below).
Ohio State’s Line Yards Allowed: Ohio State is 5th in the Big Ten in EPA/rush allowed, which signals the biggest vulnerability in each phase on both sides. The Buckeyes don’t grade well on the interior DL, but Indiana has also seen some steady regression in its run-blocking, highlighted by losing Drew Evans at LG. Indiana must establish something on the ground to make its passing attack optimal (second-best play-action team in the nation), and it appears there could be some opportunity.
Ohio State’s Offensive Explosion Rate: Indiana has played one team that is analytically as explosive as Ohio State (Washington, ranked 18th). Indiana allowed an 11% explosive play rate to the Huskies (78th percentile). Five of those six explosive plays came from the running game, and OSU RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are 6th and 7th in the Big Ten in rushing plays of 10+ yards. The Hoosiers will need to tackle far better than they did against Washington.
Ohio State’s Passing Success Rate: Indiana probably deserves more benefit of the doubt than I’m willing to give its pass defense. It is 24th in passing success rate allowed and 5th in the Big Ten in passing EPA/play allowed, and it most recently limited Washington (12th nationally in passing success rate) to just 202 yards passing. But there is more of a consistency, complexity, and depth to this Ohio State passing game than Washington’s, which can be seen in the distribution curves below. This is concerning to me. More on this below.
Ohio State’s Defensive EPA after the 40-yard Line: It’s really tough to get to the redzone on Ohio State, and it’s even tougher to score. Ohio State allows the lowest redzone TD rate in the nation, and Indiana owns the 4th-highest offensive redzone TD rate. Indiana OC Mike Shanahan has proven to be one of the most creative redzone offense schemers in the nation, and that will be put to the test this weekend. Expect Indiana to also go for chunk plays while in Ohio State’s territory and maybe even seek big explosion in ways it hasn’t yet.
Big Ten Conversion Rates, Offense & Defense
When a team begins a new set of downs, how often does it convert? How does that set of downs typically result? Below shows the conversion rate, which is how often each result takes place out of total offensive and defensive series (missed field goals included in Field Goal, and turnovers on downs included in Turnover).
Observations:
In terms of moving the ball, these are the two best teams in the Big Ten and two of the best in college football, on both sides.
Ohio State is the 7th-best team in early-down EPA/play, which goes a long way here. Staying out of 4th-down situations, where Indiana thrives as the 3rd-best team nationally (25% conversion rate allowed; 7-of-28), will be huge for the Buckeyes.
Big Ten Passing and Rushing Distribution
The chart below maps every play recorded by every team in the Big Ten by their EPA values — disaggregated by passing and rushing, and then again by offense and defense. The dotted line indicates EPA/play within each distribution and is the measure that orders each column. To explain the curves simply: the further right the crests of the curves are on offense the better, and the further left the crests are on defense the better.
Observations:
Ohio State’s passing attack is really good. It’s one of the top teams nationally in passing explosion, but you wouldn’t guess it because there isn’t really a pronounced second hump after the crest of the curve. That’s because there is so much consistent success behind that explosion. Will Howard is 4th in the conference in total pass yards while also owning the 7th-highest average depth of target. Ohio State lives a little shorter than Indiana in its passing game, but the plays are designed specifically to get necessary success, and it’s executed well.
Again, Kurtis Rourke against the OSU pass defense, and Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson against the Indiana run defense will be fun. All four phases are top-2 in the conference. However, Ohio State’s OL might have something to say about that…
Offensive Line Preview
Observations:
This is where Indiana has the greatest advantage in the matchup, which is so unusual to say. The Buckeye OL hasn’t been as impressive as its traditional reputation suggests, and it’s had a couple unfortunate injuries to make this even more of a reality. Since Week 7, Ohio State is graded 115th in pass-blocking, according to PFF (thanks to Ben for that stat below). Let’s go through position-by-position:
Left Tackle: Donovan Jackson is incredibly talented (probably most talented on this OL), but he had never played LT until three weeks ago and got eaten up by Penn State. Jackson moved over from LG after injuries to two Ohio State LTs.
Left Guard: Like Indiana, this is probably Ohio State’s weakest position on the line. The Buckeyes’ LG moved over to center this week after an injury (discussed in a second), so redshirt freshman Austin Siereveld, who has filled in at either guard position throughout the season, will step in at LG moving forward. He has failed to log an average performance against a conference opponent, according to PFF.
Center: Ohio State’s starting center, Seth McLaughlin, an offseason transfer from Alabama, suffered an Achilles injury this week during practice. McLaughlin was graded 25th at the position by PFF, two spots behind Mike Katic. It’s truly unfortunate for someone who has NFL potential. Now, Carson Hinzman, who started at center last year for OSU, will move back to center from LG. Over the course of the 2023 season, Hinzman did not impress, grading in the 8th percentile of FBS centers.
Right Guard: Tegra Tshabola has been holding down this position for Ohio State all season, and while he hasn’t been bad (just 8 QB pressures allowed; 11th among Big Ten guards), he also hasn’t been good either. He signed with OSU as a top-100 prospect in the 2022 class, so he will continue to develop, but that doesn’t help Ohio State on Saturday.
Right Tackle: Indiana fans might remember Josh Fryar, an in-state 2020 recruit who was strongly considering Indiana until late in his recruitment (totally fair, given who the Indiana OL coach was then). Fryar has always had more of an interior OL profile, but he’s been playing tackle at OSU for the last couple of seasons. He’s definitely seen his inconsistencies, as he’s graded 18th among starting Big Ten tackles, but he has only allowed 8 QB pressures this season, which is fewer than either of Indiana’s tackles.
The Ohio State OL is comprised entirely of linemen who profile best as interior linemen. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle an Indiana DL that is filled with versatility and likes to use that versatility as a weapon.
Observations:
This chart now includes LG Tyler Stephens, as seen in the 2nd-lowest minimum in the conference. This includes more than his performance against Michigan, as some will remember he played roughly 50 snaps as an additional OL/TE in certain packages. Stephens never graded that well at JMU and played himself into the 4th guard spot on this team, so expectations are low. However, he wasn’t awful against Michigan according to the numbers and now has more than two days for Unit 1 reps. Ohio State’s DL isn’t a pushover by any means, but its interior isn’t as strong as Michigan’s. The concern is how does Stephens’ presence influence Carter Smith’s responsibilities at LT?
Ohio State Key Contributors
QB Will Howard: It is stunning how similar Will Howard’s profile is to Kurtis Rourke’s all the way through. Rourke has just a tad more situational efficiency and pushes the ball slightly further downfield, but these two are nearly identical, numbers-wise. One distinction, though, is that Howard struggles more under pressure, particularly when he feels pressure without a blitz. He owns the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (22.9%) in the Big Ten when not blitzed. Indiana needs to get pressure on Howard without blitzing.
RBs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson: Graded 3rd and 5th respectively in the Big Ten, Ohio State’s RBs are both in the top-5 in yards per carry — Henderson with 7.57 yards per carry, which leads Big Ten RBs with 50+ carries. Running behind an OL unit that earns the 7th-most line yards per rush, one of few knocks on these RBs is that lead back Judkins ranks 17th in the Big Ten in yards after contact per carry. That’s not ideal against an IU front that allows the 2nd-fewest line yards per carry and leads the nation in TFLs. (Henderson is also the brother of former IU RB Ronnie Walker.)
WRs Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka: Surprisingly, Ohio State’s WRs room is not as deep as Indiana’s. The Hoosiers have four WRs graded inside the Big Ten top-10; Ohio State has three graded inside the top-25. But Smith and Egbuka, graded 1st and 6th respectively, are dangerous. They have each been targeted 66 times and are 1st and 3rd in touchdowns, with 9 and 8 respectively. There is also only one WR in the conference with deeper average targets paired with a longer YAC/catch — Omar Cooper (on 41 targets though). Smith is an explosive playmaker. Egbuka will catch the ball all over the field. While mostly lining up in slot, he works a lot horizontally and is designed into positions for YAC.
DEs Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau: Both former 5-star DEs, Sawyer and Tuimoloau, while being the top two run defense DEs in the conference, haven’t developed into the fearsome pass-rushing DEs we’ve come to expect from Ohio State. Sawyer is 4th among DEs in QB pressures but 28th with 3.0 sacks, while Tuimoloau has as many QB pressures as Lanell Carr and has a near-even pass-rush grade as Carr as well.
LB Sonny Styles: Styles is an insane athlete, and Ohio State has moved him around to find the right spot for him on the defense. It seems they’ve recently found a role for him as an edge rusher from the LB position. He gets home on sacks at a better rate than any Big Ten LB (4 sacks on 13 pressures), and most of that production has come in the last two weeks. While he has remained fairly inconsistent overall, he must be accounted for on every snap.
SAFs Lathan Ransom and Caleb Downs: Former Indiana DC Matt Guerreri has Ransom and Downs playing better than any safeties in the conference (both top-15 nationally). This is the strength of the Ohio State defense, and it needs to be in Jim Knowles’ 4-2-5. Throwing on either is a dangerous prospect (particularly Ransom), but they both work extremely well in run defense, where they’re both in the top-4 in TFLs on the team.
What BSB is Watching For
How much damage can Indiana’s DL do?
This matchup is the mismatch most in Indiana’s favor, as Ohio State lost its best remaining OL to an Achilles injury this week and is fielding an OL comprised entirely of linemen that profile best as interior OLs, many of whom are displaced. On the other side, Indiana has allowed the second-fewest yards per carry nationally (2.46) and the second-fewest line yards per carry (2.22). I encourage you to watch Urban Meyer break down the Indiana defensive front’s performance against Michigan and to also key in on the DL when Ohio State is on offense this week.
The Hoosiers need to be disruptive in the trenches this week. They cannot win without it. So how can they be disruptive?
First, they need to get pressure on Ohio State QB Will Howard, particularly without blitzing. Howard is graded by PFF at 9th in the conference when under pressure, and when experiencing pressure without a blitz, he owns the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (22.9%). This season, Indiana hasn’t needed to blitz to apply pressure. Of the 36 Big Ten DEs with 150+ pass-rush snaps, Mikail Kamara and Lanell Carr rank 1st and 8th in pass rush productivity, and DTs James Carpenter, CJ West, and Tyrique Tucker are all in the top-13 among Big Ten DTs. While LBs Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker are in the top-3 in pass rush productivity, they’re actually near the bottom — 15th and 21st — among Big Ten starting LBs in pass-rush snaps.
Applying pressure without needing to send LBs will also allow the defense to hold the mid-level of the field against a strong Ohio State passing attack that likes to attack the middle of the field by putting LBs and safeties in conflict.
In run defense, it’s important that Indiana’s DL brings havoc to the Ohio State OL. Ohio State, even with its recent struggles in personnel, is ranked 7th in line yards per rush and graded as the 21st-best run-blocking team nationally. Their RBs are also extremely talented. Quinshon Judkins had two thousand-yard seasons at Ole Miss before transferring to Ohio State, and TreVeyon Henderson is perhaps the most explosive RB in the conference. Indiana leads the Big Ten and is 11th nationally in TFLs, averaging 7.3 per game, and three Indiana linemen rank in the top-8 in PFF’s run-defense grade.
A common method to credit offensive lines and RBs for rushing yardage is to compare line yards per rush and second-level yards per rush, and while it’s fairly even for Ohio State, there is a slight lean toward the OL, which is surprising. See the chart below (scarlet dot). I also included Indiana’s crimson dot for fun.
Data source: @cfb_data, Design: Bite-Sized Bison
Mikail Kamara, who attacked the Michigan DL from seven different positions along the line, will be the most significant player on this side for the ball for Indiana. He leads all FBS defensive linemen in QB pressures and is 20th in run defense. But CJ West has developed into a key plug on the interior, and James Carpenter’s versatility will cause some issues for Ohio State’s OL. Indiana will likely continue to do what it’s done all season, which is mix up the looks pre-snap on the DL and stunt and twist for opportunities. Few teams have been better than Indiana at doing this.
Does Ohio State apply pressure on Indiana’s secondary?
The matchup between the Indiana secondary and Ohio State’s receiving corps is concerning. Indiana hasn’t exactly played a gauntlet of receiving talent this season. It limited Maryland WR Tai Felton — graded 5th among Big Ten WRs — to his least productive game of the season (5 catches on 5 targets for 38 yards), held Washington WR Denzel Boston — graded 9th in the Big Ten but proven to be more inconsistent than he began — to 4 catches on 9 targets for 43 yards, and limited Michigan TE Colston Loveland to 4 catches on 10 targets (!) for just 37 yards. The secondary deserves credit for those performances.
However, Indiana has shown cracks in coverage throughout the season. Michigan State freshman WR Nick Marsh — graded 17th among Big Ten WRs — had 5 catches on 7 targets for 78 yards and a TD. The Hoosiers also allowed big games to Northwestern WRs Bryce Kirtz (10 catches, 128 yards) and AJ Henning (6 catches, 67 yards, 2 TDs), and both of those Wildcats are graded outside of the Big Ten’s top-25 WRs. Maryland and Nebraska — two teams that attack with a corps of pass-catchers — found success in the passing game against this IU defense through players behind their top targets.
The Northwestern game is most concerning. This was weeks ago, of course, but Northwestern posted an explosive play rate that measured in the 70th percentile, and 4 of those plays came from passes. Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning are a similar duo to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, in terms of utility within their offenses; Smith and Egbuka are just more talented and have a better QB throwing to them.
Indiana has not seen a passing attack as complex and effective as Ohio State’s, and if Ohio State gets aggressive, the matchups don’t seem to be in Indiana’s favor.
Can Indiana establish a run game?
As previously stated, Ohio State’s allowed rushing success rate and line yards per rush suggest that running opportunities will be available for Indiana, particularly in the interior. They might not be available in volume, but they will be there for Indiana to potentially establish a rushing presence and get into play-action scenarios, where they’ve been the second-best to Ole Miss nationally.
A lot of this also comes with what the defense gives Kurtis Rourke on his reads as he operates a spread RPO attack.
How does Indiana attack OSU through the air?
There is a common thread in the way teams have attacked the Ohio State defense in the passing game. They go to their most versatile receivers, particularly those who are most difficult to get into man-to-man matchups. Oregon went to its TE and slot WR 16 total times; Nebraska went to its TE and slot WR 14 total times; and Penn State went to an RB-TE duo 11 total times, plus 3 more targets to its slot WR. In these matchups — the games when teams have had the most success passing against Ohio State in competitive games — only Oregon WR Evan Stewart (graded 30th among Big Ten pass-catchers) had consistent success with a large target share as a perimeter WR. But not many teams have a pass-catching corps that looks like this:
Something Oregon revealed about this Ohio State defense is that it will surrender explosive passing plays. The Ducks connected for four passes of 32+ yards, including a 69-yard TD. Kurtis Rourke is graded 2nd in the Big Ten (7th nationally) on passes of 20+ yards downfield and throws those passes the 2nd-most in the conference too, and Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt lead all Big Ten WRs in yards per reception. With as difficult as it is to move the ball against this Ohio State defense (especially in the redzone), it really seems like Indiana needs to get an explosive play or two similar to Oregon’s 69-yarder, and Indiana hasn’t exactly shown that type of explosion in ways many were expecting coming into the season.
While it seems like Zach Horton isn’t getting many targets, this feels like a game where Indiana’s slot WRs (Myles Price and Ke’Shawn Williams) carry a heavy load to aid moving the ball, but I’d personally like to see Omar Cooper be given opportunities for both explosion and one-on-one matchups against Ohio State’s secondary CBs. That seems like a major mismatch, as Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun rank 34th and 43rd among Big Ten CBs in PFF’s coverage grade. Elijah Sarratt will likely have opportunities on the perimeter as well, which Burke and Igbinosun seem to understand, as they were pictured working on back-shoulder throws after practice Wednesday.
What does seem true is that we have not seen the bounds of the passing scheme yet. There are many things on tape at JMU that Mike Shanahan has not shown at Indiana yet, and if there was a time to show something new, this game would be the time.
How does Indiana’s interior OL hold up?
A surprising vulnerability in this Ohio State defense is the interior DL, but Indiana is not exactly in position to take advantage, with Tyler Stephens slotted at LG. Carter Smith will have his hands full with Ohio State’s DEs, so how does this influence Stephens, and how does Ohio State attack an interior OL that is wearing down as the season progresses?
Which in-game adjustments does the staff make?
This is the key to beating any team of Ohio State’s caliber. No gameplan withstands an entire 60 minutes against a team like that, and this staff has shown an unprecedented (for Indiana) willingness and capability to adjust during games — which was proven against Maryland, Michigan State, Washington, and Michigan.
Michigan State earned the first lead of any IU opponent because Indiana’s initial plan wasn’t working, but four total drives into the game, the Indiana staff had the Spartans figured out on its way to a 47-10 win. Washington threw an entirely new defensive passing scheme at Indiana with backup QB Tayven Jackson starting, according to Curt Cignetti, and Indiana held the Huskies off until it could gain its footing and put them away on the ground. Michigan effectively took away the pass in the second half, and even though Indiana struggled on the ground, it got just enough to put Michigan away despite the first example of a lack of execution broadly.
In particular, the multiplicity of Indiana’s offense makes it tough to know how Indiana will attack Ohio State’s defense, but it also offers confidence in Indiana’s ability to pivot when it needs to. This is what has separated this Indiana team from previous iterations.
The coaching gap between these two teams is not what it typically is, and I’m curious how it translates against coaches and philosophies that undoubtedly informed the young coaches on Indiana’s staff.
How does the weather impact the game?
The forecast currently expects the high temperature on Saturday to be 48 degrees, and, in recent days, some forecasts have shown rain. Does that affect what the teams can do? I expect not, but it could make things slightly more difficult, particularly for WRs. If it squeezes the field into a smaller space, that feels like an Ohio State advantage to me.
The Hate for and Incredulity in Indiana
I wasn’t initially going to touch on this because anyone who consumes college football data (or, frankly, watches the games) knows that Indiana belongs in the College Football Playoff bracket, but not discussing it might be a disservice to BSB readers looking for further insight into this discourse. Many pundits, particularly with roots in the SEC, are crying about Indiana’s ranking out of frustration that Georgia is No. 10.
The primary argument against Indiana is that it “hasn’t played anybody.” This isn’t entirely unfair or incorrect! But it does leave out a lot of context when not explored further, which I will do below.
I just want to list some thoughts I’ve had in relation to this, rather than write out an entire column:
First, pointing to another program’s resume (particularly one that has zero losses) to justify two-loss teams is an immediate signal of desperation, and I applaud the CFP committee for not buying it. CBS’ Tom Fornelli posted a great point on Twitter the other day: “Let's say that Indiana's schedule was so easy that it had a 75% chance of winning every game. Assuming Indiana's opponents were that terrible, there's still only a 5.6% chance they'd be 10-0 at this point.
IMO, you should get credit for achieving that.” He’s right. It is incredibly difficult to go undefeated in college football, and only Indiana and Oregon (among the top schools in the CFP committee’s ranking, sorry Army) can claim this. It’s a signal of many things, but it’s a strong signal for effective coaching, which is something that is so often unconsidered in these conversations and something I’ll briefly discuss below.
Indiana’s average scoring margin against FBS opponents (so, removing the 77-point game against Western Illinois) is +25.2. That is 3rd nationally, behind Ohio State and Notre Dame. That margin is also more than 57 teams score on average — including 5 SEC teams. Below is a chart from the most recent Bite-Sized Bison showing net success rates of Indiana’s opponents for the season versus when they play Indiana. The Hoosiers are simply obliterating their opponents (also the best in the nation against the spread). One specific example that comes to mind is when, to finish off a 14-point win over Washington (16th in opponent-adjusted EPA/play, by the way), Indiana chose to bleed the last six minutes of the game by simply running into the teeth of Washington’s defense. There was no attempt to score, just to end the game because it could, and that is what the best teams in college football do.
Indiana’s strength of record (SOR), measured by ESPN FPI and a foundational metric used by Georgia sympathizers, is 6th in the country. Georgia’s is 2nd, much to its credit, but that’s not the point here. The point is that a strength of schedule metric, where Indiana ranks 106th, as many pundits love to note, is based on such a small sample size that using it as a standalone pillar in any argument is ridiculous. For example, Indiana has the 4th-toughest remaining strength of schedule according to FPI — with No. 3 Ohio State and No. 114 Purdue remaining. So if we were to replace, say, Northwestern (No. 77) with Iowa (No. 22) or Wisconsin (No. 34) on Indiana’s schedule, that 106 figure would look very different, and you’d have a difficult time convincing me Indiana would lose to either of those teams, especially when Iowa lost to Michigan State and UCLA — teams Indiana beat 89-23 — in its last four games. Let’s even say you replace Northwestern on the schedule for Penn State (No. 7), and Indiana lost to the Nittany Lions. Indiana would be 9-1, with still a very strong statistical profile and a much stronger strength of schedule. It would be one of seven 1-loss-or-better teams in the current top-12, a group it already exists within, and Penn State would then have its best win (currently Wisconsin) and would have a better win than Texas (currently Florida).
This entire argument against Indiana seems to miss the core of the frustration, which is that college football has grouped together so many of the top programs — programs that used to exist at the top of other conferences — and stacked them into just two conferences. While playoff expansion was intended to be more inclusive, conference realignment has negated that effect because now Oregon is holding the top spot in the Big Ten (taking the bye from Ohio State or Indiana) and Texas is representing the SEC instead of the Big 12 as the committee scrambles to find a suitable Big 12 team to include. This also bloats Big Ten and SEC numbers while both conferences beat up on themselves. Miami (FL) is not feeling this in the ACC; it just lost to Georgia Tech and is still ranked 8th and seems to be easily seeded in the top-4. Many folks were predicting this issue to be the case as it happened before the season. Now, as SEC fans and media see a door closing on them, with Indiana’s undefeated record and one losable game ahead, they’re targeting a college football brand they’re unfamiliar with, rather than critically engaging with a team that is actually statistically making the best single-season improvement in the last decade of college football’s power conferences.
Ultimately, if you’ve watched these games, it isn’t that difficult to see who the best teams are — or at least that Indiana belongs in the field. The Hoosiers undoubtedly do not have the same talent as other programs; nobody would argue that. SEC fans and media, including Ryen Russillo and Todd McShay, are crying tears making this point. The games still matter. And at some point, coaching matters too. If coaches cannot lead their stacked rosters past Vanderbilt (No. 38) (sorry, Kalen DeBoer) or Northern Illinois (No. 87) or Georgia Tech (No. 39) or Arkansas (No. 32) or Kentucky (No. 46), this should be considered.
There are several other points to make within this discussion, but frankly, this is just getting silly, capped by Tommy Tuberville claiming Indiana “bought” its team.
Even if Indiana loses to Ohio State on Saturday, the Hoosiers will more than likely remain in the College Football Playoff bracket because the committee — now with six new members of the 13 contributors — is actually watching the games, as they’ve repeatedly said. I’d recommend some folks do the same.
Witt’s Wagers
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last five years for various media outlets, including Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.
Bet: Ohio State Team Total Under 32.5
Ben’s 2024 Record: 8-2
Well, folks, here we are. The biggest game, possibly, in Indiana football history is upon us.
The spread is high against the Hoosiers, and I’ve flip-flopped so much on how to bet this game. You can make a strong case for either side on the spread, and I’m just as torn on first-quarter or first-half bets for both teams.
So that brings me to the team total.
We know IU’s defense has been stout this season, and now with OSU having some offensive line injuries, we might see a different Buckeye offense.
There’s also the caveat of seeing the Buckeyes struggle against good defenses. Against Penn State’s 10th-ranked defense: 20 points. Against Oregon’s 20th-ranked defense: 31 points.
Indiana has a 9th-ranked defense, which would make this the best defense OSU has seen all season.
We also got the news this week that OSU will be without its starting center in this game, which means no starting center or left tackle for this Buckeye offense. This could signal trouble for quarterback Will Howard, who has been behind one of the nation’s worst offensive lines since Week 7. After LT Josh Simmons went down, the OSU offensive line has been graded as the 115th-worst in pass blocking, per PFF. I can’t imagine losing a starting center helps that number in any way—especially against an IU defensive line that ranks 4th in pass rush.
We can also add the fact that IU’s rushing defense success rate is ranked 5th in the country, which means OSU might be in trouble if they try to keep the ball on the ground to save Howard from some sacks.
Additionally, Indiana’s defense is ranked 3rd in the nation in early-down EPA defense and 9th in third- and fourth-down success rate on defense.
I can’t tell you which side is covering or even who wins the first half. But what I can say is it looks like OSU might really struggle to get big chunk plays on offense without some key blocking. So let’s take the IU defense to hold things down and hope the Buckeyes can keep it under 32 points.
Hold on to your butt, folks, Saturday is going to be a wild one.
Tremendous article and insight. Thank you. Fingers crossed 🤞...GO IU!
A comprehensive analysis of how this game might unfold. My bet is a two pick parlay. Indiana on the ML and the Under. At +500. I’m certain we’ll be ready. Thanks for all your work Tyler.