Week 3 Preview: Indiana State

Prepare for Indiana's Week 1 matchup against the Indiana State Sycamores with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

The last time Indiana hosted Indiana State in 2023, the Sycamores were on their way to a 1-10 season, and the following happened for Indiana: 1.) Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby combined for 344 yards passing, 2.) The following names were just a select few to make the box score: Jaylin Lucas, Trent Howland, Donaven McCulley, Cam Camper, Josh Henderson, and Chris Freeman, 3.) Lucas led the team in rushing, with 88 yards, 4.) Omar Cooper caught 7 of his 18 receptions and recorded 101 of his 267 yards that season, and 5.) Phillip Dunnam led the team in tackles. What a difference two years can make!

Ultimately, that game — a 41-7 victory — served as a sort of injection of hope for the Walt Bell-led 2023 offense following a 23-3 loss to Ohio State that featured 2.8 yards/play the week before. The Hoosiers outgained ISU in that one, 558-93 (7.1 yards/play). The only problem was that it was against an eventual 1-10 FCS team.

In 2025, Indiana has already logged a better offensive performance, with a 593-yard (8.9 yards/play) game against Kennesaw State last week. Besides showing more explosion in the passing game (discussed below) and limiting explosion on defense, there is little Indiana could do this week to seem more prepared for Illinois and Iowa on the other side. This week is about the reps, details, and gaining experience throughout the roster, and much of that is internal.

However, this is not 2023’s Indiana State. The Sycamores, at 2-0, jumped 35 (!) spots from No. 70 to No. 35 in the FCS and only trail Kennesaw State by 8 spots in Bill Connelly’s SP+ top-766 (includes FBS, FCS, D-II, NAIA, and D-III teams) — KSU is No. 158, ISU is No. 166. Indiana State actually leads 7 FBS teams in the rating.

So there’s a chance that what we see from Indiana against Indiana State this week is more real than what we saw from Indiana in this matchup in 2023 — and any success ISU may find this week is also okay.

In this preview:

• Opponent Overview

• Indiana SP+ Progress

• Advanced Stat Preview

• QB Profiles

• ISU Key Contributors

• What BSB is Watching For

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Opponent Overview

Curt Mallory has brought stability to Indiana State since 2017, but the Sycamores’ 2023 season — the last time Indiana played ISU — was tough, ending with a 1-10 record. Just two seasons later, though, it appears ISU is digging out of that hole.

Mallory has two new coordinators on his staff in 2025 — OC John Bear and DC David Elson. Indiana fans may recognize Elson as a 2010 assistant hired by Bill Lynch. Elson ushered Western Kentucky into the FBS as its head coach for seven seasons, but after going 2-20 in his first two years in the FBS, WKU let him go. Lynch hired Elson for a position that is essentially known as “analyst” today, and Indiana’s first FBS opponent that 2010 season was…WKU. Ben Chappell threw for 366 yards and 3 TDs in a 38-21 win. In recent seasons, Elson spent a couple years on Jeff Brohm’s staff at Purdue and a couple more as an analyst at Wake Forest before heading to Terre Haute.

Much like Kennesaw State, the portal was a point of optimism for Indiana State this offseason, as the Sycamores added talent from Kansas, Virginia, UNLV, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Toledo. There appears to be a new future ahead for the Mallory-led program.

Part of that future is starting QB Elijah Owens — a dual-threat QB who started last season as a redshirt freshman and was later named a Phil Steele Freshman All-American. Unfortunately for ISU, though, Owens was hurt last week and will be out until later this season.

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Indiana SP+ Progress

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 73rd percentile after its game versus Old Dominion in Week 1.

Notes on SP+ Progression:

• Indiana comes in at No. 16 in this week’s SP+ ratings, up 21 spots. This ranks 5th in the Big Ten, behind Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and USC.

• Other notable teams’ ratings: Illinois (No. 17), Iowa (No. 42), ODU (No. 93)

Over 20,000 simulations, Indiana totaled 9 wins in 32.3% of them. As the SP+ ratings have begun to round into shape, probability has begun to favor Indiana, as preseason ratings suggested Indiana’s best odds were to win 8 games, with a near-equal likelihood of winning 9. Now, the odds that Indiana wins 10 games are nearly as equal as 8.

Some of this has to do with Indiana’s increased SP+ rating, but, due to other teams’ movement, the win probability in individual games has also turned in Indiana’s favor so far, such as the following:

• Iowa: from 44% to 65% win probability

• UCLA: from 77% to 95%

• Penn State: from 15% to 27%

• Wisconsin: from 68% to 72%

The others have remained stable, with the Illinois game currently at a 58% win probability for Indiana.

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Advanced Stat Preview

Some Observations: