Week 3 Recap: Indiana State

Now that the dust has settled, let's take a deeper look at Indiana's matchup against Indiana State.

Indiana closed out its 2025 non-conference schedule with a blowout win that exceeded expectations. As was noted in the Preview, this Indiana State team is expected to be far better than the 2023 team that Indiana outgained, 558-93, yet Indiana put up an even more dominant performance Friday, outgaining 2025 Indiana State, 680-77.

Brian Fremeau, the creator of FEI ratings, did a bit of analysis showing that FBS-FCS matchups are becoming less competitive at large, which could inform the chasm between what SP+ ratings showed going into the week (ISU just 8 spots behind Kennesaw State) and what actually happened on the field, a 73-0 win for Indiana — the largest shutout victory for the program since 1901. What Fremeau shows is that scoring margins from 2007-24 have been steadily increasing in the FBS’ favor (31.1 scoring margin in 2024) and currently sit at an average margin of 33 in 2025, which would be the highest margin during the 19-season span.

Regardless, it was quite a showing by Indiana:

This win propelled Indiana to No. 13 in the latest SP+ ratings, and the Hoosiers are one of nine teams with both offense and defensive efficiencies ranked in the top-20. This is where they sit in unadjusted EPA/play among Big Ten and FBS teams:

This is a good place to be for Indiana. Below is where the Hoosiers were through non-conference play (which ended for Indiana in Week 4):

While Indiana isn’t in the same place relatively speaking, it is roughly in the same place statistically (look at the axes). This seems to suggest that many of the teams currently overperforming (especially offensively) will return closer to the mean in about a week or two.

The Hoosiers have Illinois and Iowa on deck — two of the team’s hinge games on the schedule.

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Indiana Offensive Snap Counts & Grades