Week 3 Recap: Louisville
Week 3 Recap: Louisville
Taking a deeper look at a disappointing 21-14 loss to Louisville
This always seemed like an adjusted Week 1 for Indiana, as the IU coaching staff essentially treated the first two weeks as preseason games, due to the massive turnover on the roster. Many within the fanbase were expecting to learn more about the team, in terms of what to expect moving forward, but with the polarized nature of the two halves, it remains difficult to know exactly what Indiana has here, following a 21-14 loss to Louisville and an updated ESPN SP+ ranking of 81st in the nation.
Tayven Jackson impressed as a passer, particularly within the pocket, and the defense tightened up to limit a high-powered Louisville offense to 21 points. However, some aspects of the game that are difficult to quantify – play-calling in specific situations, wasted timeouts, and operational penalties – really cost this team the game after an impressive comeback effort.
Notable Snap Counts
Omar Cooper played just 7 snaps after a 100-yard performance against Indiana State.
Andison Coby played just 1 snap.
Max Longman took over for Matt Bedford at RG due to injury and recorded a fantastic pass-blocking grade (less than desirable run-blocking grade).
The Bull snaps reduced this week, likely due to the need to cover more spread formations. Anthony Jones only saw 10 snaps.
Only 3 CBs recorded a snap in the game, led by Kobee Minor (61). Jamier Johnson got back onto the field for 16 snaps. Nic Toomer did not play.
Notable statistics
Tayven Jackson’s 299 yards passing were the most by an Indiana QB since Week 3 (Sept. 17) of 2022, when Connor Bazelak passed for 364 yards against Western Kentucky.
In his first week qualifying for season-long QBR rankings, Tayven Jackson ranks 7th in the conference in QBR. He posted the 6th-best QBR in the Big Ten this week.
Among QBs with at least 8 passing attempts deep downfield (20+ yards), Tayven Jackson owns the 50th-best passing grade nationally and the 3rd-best grade in the Big Ten. He completed all 3 of his passes deep downfield Saturday.
As a team, Indiana has the 47th-best passing grade in the nation.
Indiana’s OL recorded just 1.5 line yards per rush against a defense that has allowed an average of 2.7 against Georgia Tech and Murray State.
Indiana’s passing game finished with a 0.503 expected points added per play. Louisville’s was 0.811.
Louisville’s overall success rate was 56% on offense. Indiana’s was 39%.
Indiana went to Donaven McCulley twice on third down, showing increased trust in the QB-turned-WR.
Andre Carter recorded a season-high 7 QB pressures, all resulting in QB hurries.
After posting 58 rushing yards against Louisville, Indiana now ranks 13th in the Big Ten (113th nationally) with 3.36 yards per rushing attempt.
Cam Camper has been targeted 13 times this season. That’s 28th in the Big Ten.
Per CrimsonCast: Through three games, Indiana has scored the fewest points (58) since 2003. On defense, it’s allowed the fewest points (54) since 1996.
Jaylin Lucas was Everywhere
Something I’ve been patiently awaiting is for Jaylin Lucas to be used in more creative ways within the offense, and finally, we saw that Saturday. Lucas caught 10 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown, the most notable being his touchdown reception in the third quarter.
Lucas has seen his passing-play usage rise from 4% in Week 1, to 14% in Week 2, to 30% in Week 3. He has been targeted 17 times now, which leads all Big Ten RBs and is 13th among all Big Ten receivers, and it’s paid off, as Lucas owns the best receiving grade in the conference.
It was fairly clear watching the game how Lucas was used differently in Week 3, since the broadcasters were circling him all over the field, and that reflected in his snap alignments too. He already has more snaps in slot (11) in 2023 than he did in 2022 (10). He also posted a season-high in snaps out wide (2) and average depth of target (2.9 yards). His snap rate was the highest of his career as well, at 95.7%.
He’s a game-changer, and I’m hoping he remains this involved in games when Indiana doesn’t need as much explosiveness.
Secondary Optimistically Remains Somewhat Unknown
The secondary was a concern for me coming into the game, as I said on CrimsonCast in preview, largely because it hadn’t been tested. Ohio State showed no interest in testing the secondary, and Indiana State was not capable, so this was really that group’s first test. And it was mixed, to say the least.
After passing for 202 yards in the first half, Louisville only passed for 36 yards in the second half. Take out the big plays by Jamari Sharpe (beat by Jamari Thrash on an 85-yard score) and basically the entire secondary (let Jamari Thrash run by them for 43 yards), and Jack Plummer passed for 110 yards on 11 completions. In the second half, Plummer went 5-for-10 with an interception.
This is likely just fool’s gold, though, much like the low Marvin Harrison-Emeka Egbuka numbers against Ohio State. Louisville QB Jack Plummer (who has been playing since 2019) recorded the best single-game PFF Offensive Grade of his career (91.7).
What is clear at the moment is that, much like last season, this Indiana secondary is susceptible to big plays, but exactly how susceptible is yet to be determined.
In the preview piece, I noted how Louisville tended to throw to the center of the field most often, highlighting the center third of the field at depths from behind the line of scrimmage all the way up to 19 yards downfield (with an additional look at the right side of the field 20+ yards downfield). And those were nearly the only areas Louisville threw to. See the diagram below.
Source: Pro Football Focus
Jeff Brohm did a great job of moving Jamari Thrash around the field, as the dangerous WR posted 5 of his 6 targets against different defenders. Jamari Sharpe was the only DB to defend 2 targets against Thrash, and PFF gave Sharpe a good coverage grade on those targets (even though one was the 85-yard TD).
Noah Pierre did a good job of making contact at the point of reception, as he only allowed 2 catches on 5 targets, but he was vulnerable on most targets. Kobee Minor didn’t allow any catches on 3 targets with an average depth of target at 25 yards.
Largely, though, PFF graded Indiana’s coverage effort as average to below average, so we have more to learn about this group.
Poor Anthony Jones. He played only 10 snaps and had the misfortune of failing on his most important snap. Following our bust at the 1.5 foot line, Brohm did a Brohm thing, and called a fake handoff into the line and a naked QB roll away from the point of attack. #4 Anthony Jones bit on the fake. If only he had stayed home the whole game outcome may have been very different.