Week 4 Preview: Illinois

Prepare for Indiana's Week 1 matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

While this isn’t exactly a meeting of two massive college football brands, it is one of the most anticipated games in Indiana Football history. This is the first time in program history that Indiana, as a ranked team, will host a top-10 opponent in Bloomington (credit: Ben Stevens of I-80 Club), and given the paths ahead and the reshaping of the College Football Playoff format, this game could have serious implications for the CFP seeding in December.

Both teams have played similar schedules — Illinois’ strength of schedule at 101st nationally according to ESPN FPI, Indiana’s at 117th — with each team’s toughest opponents being Duke (No. 63 in FPI) and Old Dominion (No. 56), respectively. This is how each team performed in those two games:

The success rates in both of those games tell different stories than the scores, and Old Dominion went on to obliterate Virginia Tech on the road with Duke losing to Tulane on the road. If there’s a predictive edge based on resume, it’s probably in favor of Indiana.

But let’s dig into the details…

In this preview:

• Indiana SP+ Progress

• Advanced Stat Preview

• Opponent Overview (with OL Preview)

• QB Profiles

• Illinois Key Contributors

• What BSB is Watching For

• EPA Distribution by Scenario

---

Indiana SP+ Progress

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana is in the 73rd percentile after its game versus Old Dominion in Week 1.

Observations:

• This is the first week that a 10-win season is more likely than an 8-win season.

• Indiana has a 99.9% probability of reaching a bowl game. Wild, huh?

• Indiana’s hinge games have changed slightly, with Wisconsin soaring to an 86% win probability, following a lackluster performance against Alabama, and Maryland looking tougher after beating up on the 6th-easiest three-week schedule in the nation. Those games now lay out as follows: Illinois (61%), Iowa (66%), Maryland (71%).

---

Advanced Stat Preview

Some Observations: