Week 8 Gameday Roundup: Nebraska
Quick summary statistics for Indiana's 56-7 victory against Nebraska
Indiana is, one-by-one, eliminating excuses for national pundits to use against counting the Hoosiers as real contenders. The Vinn Diagram overlap between those who haven’t legitimized Indiana’s quality because of its schedule to this point and those who are willing to give Nebraska undue respect in 2024 must now acknowledge that Indiana is one of the premier teams in the conference this season.
On paper, there were signs that Indiana would outpace the SP+ projected score of 25-20 and easily cover (-6.5), but to win 56-7 and clear the over (49.5) by themselves? I didn’t necessarily read that in the data, but suddenly, a game that offered potential insight into what the ceiling for this Indiana team can be has further blurred the boundary.
Win Probability
Top Performers
Indiana
Passing: Kurtis Rourke — 17-of-21, 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Justice Ellison — 9 carries, 105 yards, 2 TDs
Receiving: Miles Cross — 7 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Jailin Walker — 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 forced fumble
Nebraska
Passing: Dylan Raiola — 28-of-44, 234 yards, 3 INTs
Rushing: Heinrich Haarberg — 5 carries, 32 yards
Receiving: Thomas Fidone — 6 receptions, 91 yards
Defense: Mikai Gbayor — 4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs
See more at ESPN’s box score.
EPA (Estimated Points Added)
EPA stands for Estimated Points Added. Before the snap, each play has an estimated points value, depending on field position, down, distance, and other factors, and the result of the play — whether it falls beyond or below the estimated value — determines the EPA for each play. This helps provide insight into the values/execution of plays, given their respective scenarios. Curious about defensive EPA? Use IU’s opponent’s offensive EPA values!
EPA Roundup observations:
Indiana won the red-zone battle. Nebraska broke into Indiana territory just three times and reached the red zone each time. On two of those trips, the Huskers turned the ball over on downs (once down 7-0). Indiana reached the red zone seven times and scored a touchdown each time. This was in large part due to the OL effectiveness and Mike Shanahan’s play-calling and scheme.
Indiana’s EPA/rush is shocking, against a Nebraska front that has stopped most teams it’s played this season. In fact, Indiana’s 215 rushing yards is the second-most Nebraska has surrendered under Matt Rhule (249 to Michigan in Week 5 2023).
The major anticipated matchup was Indiana’s offense against Nebraska’s defense, but it wasn’t very competitive this week, as shown by Indiana’s offensive success rate, which ranks in the 89th percentile of 2023 performances.
Biggest Plays
Biggest plays are defined by the largest EPA values for either team.
Indiana +6.35 EPA: Shawn Asbury interception and return to Nebraska’s 19-yard line in the 3rd quarter (28-7 IU); This is one of Indiana’s biggest plays of the season, by EPA, primarily because Asbury picked it off in his own endzone and returned it to Nebraska’s red zone (it also pretty much iced the game)
Indiana +4.36 EPA: Dylan Raiola sacked and fumbled (recovered by Mikail Kamara) on 4th down (49-7 IU)
Indiana +4.35 EPA: Justice Ellison 31-yard rushing TD in the 2nd quarter (28-7 IU)
Indiana +3.81 EPA: Dylan Raiola pass intercepted by Jamier Johnson in the 3rd quarter (35-7 IU)
Nebraska +3.73 EPA: Kurtis Rourke sacked on 4th down in the 1st quarter (7-0 IU)
Most Significant Plays
Most significant plays are defined by the plays that added the most Win Probability for either team.
Indiana +16.4%: Kurtis Rourke shakes a sack and scrambles for 6 yards on 1st down to Indiana’s own 32-yard line. With 2:32 left in the second quarter, Rourke’s rush kept an eventual scoring drive alive (21-0 IU)
Nebraska +12.5%: Kurtis Rourke sacked on 4th down in the 1st quarter (7-0 IU)
Indiana +11.9%: Justice Ellison rush for 43 yards to Nebraska’s 23-yard line in the 1st quarter (0-0 tie)
Indiana +10.6%: Miles Cross catch for 9 yards and a 4th-down conversion down to Nebraska’s 5-yard line in the 1st quarter (0-0 tie)
Indiana +10.2%: Elijah Sarratt 22-yard catch on 3rd-and-8 to the Nebraska 39-yard line in the 2nd quarter (14-7 IU)
Notable Stats
Indiana is the only team in the nation to not allow a point in the 1st quarter through Week 8. The Hoosiers have outscored their opponent 80-0 in the first.
Seven different Hoosiers scored touchdowns.
Not only was Indiana's 495 total yards the most Nebraska has surrendered this season, it's 41 more than Nebraska has allowed during the Matt Rhule Era (2023-present). The previous high was against Colorado last year.
Nebraska’s leading rusher, Heinrich Haarberg, is its backup QB.
Indiana forced 5 turnovers, which is more than Nebraska had committed all season (4). Nebraska turned the ball over 5 times in one game once in 2023 and hadn’t turned it over more than 1 times in a single game this season.
Nebraska finished the game with 70 rushing yards. That is the 2nd-fewest during the Matt Rhule Era and is the 3rd time Nebraska has been held to fewer than 100 rushing yards this season.
Indiana was 6th in the country on 3rd down this season (53%) and went 5-of-9 on 3rd down Saturday.
Nebraska went 0-for-5 on 4th-down attempts. It was 4-of-8 coming into the game.
With his 21 yards receiving Saturday, Zach Horton became the first Indiana TE to have 100 yards receiving in a season since AJ Barner had 199 in 2022.
A stat that has continues to blow my mind this season is that Indiana went into this week ranked 3rd in rushing TDs (23) after ending last season with just 13 (109th)! That figure jumped to 28 Saturday.
After just seven games, Indiana nearly has four pass-catchers with at least 300 receiving yards — Miles Cross and Myles Price are 27 and 11 yards away, respectively. Indiana hasn’t had four pass-catchers over 300 since 2019. Those are full-season numbers.
I think the SYSTEM helps the OL a great deal. It’s not like they are lining up with Orlando Pace and Joe Thomas. The pass fake after the hand off is critical. The perimeter blocking is terrific.
Defensively they are always keeping the ball in front of them, making the opponent execute many plays and being great tacklers. They seem to have the most difficulty with broken play scrambling by mobile qb’s. Of the remaining schedule this seems to be MSU and PU. Howard can move but going back to Urban, OSU’s mobile/running qb’s have hurt IU.
My questions for Davis are the nuances Rourke plays with and uses. Davis seems to have more velocity and a better deep ball. But the seasoned knowledge isn’t there yet
O line play has to be highlighted. I wonder if any of the guys will get NFL buzz. Sarratt is a monster can someone open a Waffle House in Btown? Enjoyed seeing more players get reps on D. We’re gonna need the depth as the heart of the Big 10 season continues and the weather gets colder.