Week 8 Preview: Michigan State

Prepare for Indiana's Week 8 matchup against the Michigan State Spartans with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

Indiana has reached a peak the program has never seen before:

• No. 3 in the AP Top-25 Poll

• No. 1 in ESPN FPI Strength of Record

• No. 2 in ESPN FPI

• No. 3 in ESPN SP+

And according to CollegeFootballData.com founder Bill Radjewski’s Elo rating, Indiana has never been higher than it is right now.

Source: Bill Radjewski on X

Plus, this weekend, Indiana is favored by 27.5 points. Since 2013, the highest that either team has been favored in this series was 16.5 points (Michigan State in 2014).

With Penn State’s recent flailing and firing of its head coach, James Franklin, Indiana’s last anticipated formidable opponent looks much less threatening. According to my win probability model (using SP+ weekly data), Indiana has a 63% chance to defeat the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley later this season. That number was as low as 18% earlier this season.

Bill Connelly, the developer of the SP+ metric, also determined that Indiana is No. 2 nationally in SP+ when removing all variables prior to the 2025 season, behind Texas Tech and ahead of Ohio State. Texas Tech and Indiana hold a commanding lead too (see the full list here). Given what Indiana has done to the 17th-toughest schedule in the nation, this all checks out.

As a result, Indiana’s likelihood to finish the regular season 12-0 is nearing an expectation (50%+ would qualify as expected).

From here, what controls Indiana’s destiny is largely outside the numbers. The Hoosiers should own an advantage, both in resume and in efficiency, for each of its final six matchups — no team outside of Penn State and Maryland has greater than a 4% chance of beating IU. It now needs to leverage the weapons that earned those performance metrics into a winning formula the rest of the way.

That’s what BSB is here to help decipher!

In this preview:

• Opponent Overview

• Advanced Stat Preview

• QB Profiles

• Michigan State OL Preview

• Michigan State Key Contributors

• EPA Distribution by Scenario

• What BSB is Watching For

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Opponent Overview

There are many programs waiting in agony for their coaches to break through, but Michigan State fans are being asked to exercise perhaps more patience than any other fanbase in the country, given the post-2023 cycle that current HC Jonathan Smith was hired within. Kalen DeBoer was hired by Alabama, Mike Elko by Texas A&M, Spencer Danielson by Boise State, Fran Brown by Syracuse, Jedd Fisch by Washington, Jon Sumrall by Tulane. Oh, and Curt Cignetti was hired by Indiana. Yet, when the hire was made, Michigan State was deemed one of the winners of the cycle, after Smith came off a season at Oregon State when the Beavers ranked 19th in SP+ (26th offensively) and brought his OC, Brian Lindgren, and 2023 top-100 QB signing, Aidan Chiles, with him.

Success has eluded the Spartans in Smith’s first two seasons, though. They finished 82nd in ESPN FPI in 2024 and currently rank 73rd with a remaining strength of schedule that ranks 18th nationally. Recruiting — both at the high school and transfer ranks — saw steps backward in Smith’s second season as well. It will take more time for Smith to get this program to a more competitive level, which is a tough pill to swallow with every signature win Cignetti collects in Bloomington.

In 2025, Michigan State escaped its non-conference slate 3-0, with the help of an OT win over SP+ No. 97 Boston College, but it’s dropped its first three Big Ten games, including a tough loss to UCLA, 38-13. Injuries have not been kind to the Spartans either, as they’re currently unsure of QB Aidan Chiles’ status for the game this weekend, and several other key contributors — primarily defensively — have missed time.

This game against Indiana could not have come at a worse time for Michigan State, schedule-wise. There’s a non-zero chance the Spartans lose out after this matchup in Bloomington.

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Advanced Stat Preview (The Chart)

Some Observations: