Week 9 Preview: Penn State
Let Bite-Sized Bison prepare you for IUFB's game at Penn State this coming Saturday!
Indiana has remained around the 94-to-96 level for the last three weeks in ESPN SP+. The Hoosiers come in at 95th this week, which places them just above Stanford (101) for second-worst in Power 5 football. The Hoosiers travel to SP+ No. 12 Penn State this weekend, so make your Saturday plans accordingly.
As weeks go by (and if you watch the teams), it’s pretty clear that Indiana will have a couple chances to grab another win by the end of the season, but it will need to do some serious work – both in scheme and in staying healthy – until then. At this point, we’re talking about a likely best case of 4-8, which is simply not where anyone wanted to be in 2023 following the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Statistical Preview
Indiana’s Defense is Just as Bad as the Offense!
The offense catches a lot of criticism (and rightfully so), but the Indiana defense is also deserving of the same criticism. It’s fallen off a cliff. Heading into its Week 4 matchup against Akron, Indiana’s defense ranked 74th in EPA/play (allowing an estimated 0.132 points per defensive play) – not great, but hang on. Since that week, Indiana has fallen to 102nd in the nation (allowing an estimated 0.234 points per play).
Note: Follow the red line for overall defensive EPA/play change between 2020 and 2023. Indiana is the second-most regressed defense since its stellar 2020 season. IU plummeted defensively from 2020 to 2021, held that level in 2022, and has fallen even further in 2023. As noted above, the Hoosiers currently rank 102nd in defensive EPA/play in 2023.
Indiana was thoroughly dismantled defensively by a Rutgers offense that ranks 79th in ESPN offensive SP+. It seems the only resistance Indiana has been able to offer opposing offenses is capping explosive plays. Even that resistance has its limits, as shown in Gavin Wimsatt’s longest rush of his career. Against Penn State, notoriously the least explosive offense in the nation, capping explosive plays shouldn’t be difficult. However, Rutgers was ranked 82nd in the same category and managed 4 “explosive” plays, according to GameOnPaper.com. That lack of explosiveness against the IU defense is more likely a symptom of opponents’ gameplans, electing to find and sustain consistent success on the ground against the lowest-ranked rushing defense in the Big Ten. Some teams still find room for success in their passing games, but Rutgers proved it can be done without.
The blueprint is there for Penn State, pretty clearly. It should be the same as it was for Rutgers – run the ball into the IU defense, which ranks 122nd in rushing success allowed; limit turnovers, which Indiana is ranked 116th in forcing; and then let the 126th-ranked IU offense toil away against one of the better defenses in the country, possessing the ball for about 25 minutes of gameplay. Unfortunately for Indiana, Penn State ranks 19th in offensive rushing success (with two RBs graded in the top-13 among Big Ten RBs), 2nd in turnovers committed, and No. 1 in defensive EPA/play.
Penn State has a clear weakness offensively – its 19-year-old QB Drew Allar – as displayed in the loss to Ohio State last week. Allar recorded the 81st QBR in the nation even though he still owns the 2nd-best PFF Offensive Grade among Big Ten QBs (Big Ten QBs are not good, folks). But Indiana will likely have few opportunities to exploit that weakness Saturday, until Penn State gets into “make a statement” mode later in the game, with the nation currently chiding its offense.
If the Indiana rushing defense doesn’t improve soon, this could be what we see for the next couple games, if not the remaining 5 — save for Michigan State and maybe Purdue (given Hudson Card). It just is what it is at this point.
Improvements in Running Game
Something I’m keeping my eye on as weeks go by is Indiana’s improvement in the running game. These are improvements that began prior to the offensive coordinator change but have continued since and are extremely gradual.
Unfortunately, it’s also coming at the expense of passing success.
Any improvements in this offense will seem diminutive because it’s so far gone, and within these analytical improvements, Indiana hasn’t exactly blown up the box score, but it is tangible:
Week 3 (Louisville): 299 passing yards, 58 rushing yards
Week 4 (Akron): 190 passing yards, 92 rushing yards
Week 5 (Maryland): 205 passing yards, 116 rushing yards
Week 7 (Michigan): 140 passing yards, 92 rushing yards
Week 8 (Rutgers): 126 passing yards, 153 rushing yards
This is just an insight into what to expect moving forward. Indiana still ranks 108th in offensive success (74th in passing success, 123rd in rushing success). At this point, if the goal is to win a couple more games, it’s a legitimate strategy, since after Penn State, Indiana’s remaining opponents own an average ranking of 66th in allowed rushing success – 76th after Wisconsin. However, as a season-long offensive strategy, given Indiana’s personnel – a roster the staff turned over just this past offseason – it hasn’t seemed like a great strategy.
Thanks for pointing out how bad the defense is as well, that even CTA's calling card is collapsing.
These stat sheets are brutal