Week 9 Preview: Washington
Prepare for Indiana's Week 9 matchup against the Washington Huskies with a comprehensive BSB Preview!
This particular matchup, Indiana vs. Washington, is one of high intrigue, as it feels like a microcosm of college football in 2024. Both programs were expected to converge on some anticipated middle ground of the Big Ten after Washington competed for a National Championship last season and lost its head coach (Kalen DeBoer to Alabama) and most of its assistants and brought in Jedd Fisch, while Indiana let go of Tom Allen, hired Curt Cignetti, and welcomed a new program culture, inside and out. Both teams are playing on extremely turned over rosters — 31 departures for Washington, 39 for Indiana — and both are performing better than most folks within college football expected.
The two programs’ circumstances are so closely related that Fisch was a name thrown around during the head coaching search at Indiana.
There is little precedent for a program being turned over so heavily, but as college football moves further into the Transfer Portal and NIL eras, it will become more common, as programs — like Arizona and James Madison — will see their systems and cores transplanted into the next program. Because of these unusual circumstances, this is a game Bite-Sized Bison had circled on the calendar in preseason.
However, none of this means the programs are the same. Washington has a decent history in football, dating back to the 1980s and ‘90s and saw a comeback under Steve Sarkisian and Chris Peterson in the 2010s. There is institutional investment there, as the program went all-in on DeBoer, bumping its assistant salary pool to $7.5M with a commitment to $7.7M in 2025 (Indiana’s is currently ~$5.8M, about to be at least ~$6.3M with Cignetti’s contract incentives). This investment helped in hiring Pete Carroll’s son, Brennan Carroll, as the team’s new OC (carried over from Arizona) and Bill Belichick’s son, Stephen Belichick, as the team’s new DC (hired from the Patriots). Fisch was very open in preseason about wanting an NFL-type program at Washington, but it’s been a challenge in Year 1, as they’ve seen some inconsistencies and dropped a few games to Washington State (SP+ No. 44), Rutgers (SP+ No. 58), and Iowa (SP+ No. 23) — by a score of 40-16 two weeks ago. That obviously hasn’t been the case for Cignetti at Indiana, which is dipping its toes into heavier investment in its football program and earning massive dividends in doing so.
These two programs, because of their paralleled circumstances and Washington’s entry into the Big Ten, will likely be attached narratively for a few years, and this game is a major plot point.
In This Preview:
Indiana’s SP+ Progress
Advanced Stat Preview
Big Ten Conversion Rates
Washington OL Preview
Washington’s Key Contributors
What BSB is Watching for
Witt’s Wager: Indiana -6.5
Lastly, if you missed any of the content from Week 8 (Nebraska), it is linked below. All three Week 1 newsletters are free to the public for those curious what is enclosed here.
Now, let’s get into the details.
Indiana’s SP+ Progression
The chart below conveys a weekly progression of ESPN SP+ percentile rankings in the FBS, indicating each season 2019-23 with lines and this 2024 season with bars.
Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana was in the 46th percentile after its game versus FIU in Week 1.
Advanced Stat Preview
For an explanation of how the various algorithms (FPI, SP+, FEI) in this chart work, visit a previous Preview newsletter here.
BSB Stat Preview Highlights:
Washington Early-Down EPA: Washington has a high offensive series conversion rate (meaning they convert a lot of first downs) but a very low explosion rate. This means they rely pretty heavily on early-down plays to find offensive success and piece together drives. According to BCFToys.com, they are 8th in drives that average 4+ yards per play, even 17th in 7+ yards per play. But they're 55th in drives that average 10+ yards per play. Indiana is 14th in conversion rate allowed, and to continue that trend, they must be strong early in Washington’s series.
Washington Rushing Success Allowed: In Washington’s last three games — against Rutgers, Michigan, and Iowa — they’ve allowed at least 174 rushing yards in each. Not only is Indiana 7th in rushing success rate, it’s also 23rd in rushing yards per game and 2nd in rushing TDs (as Nebraska knows well). If there was any game Indiana could possibly afford Kurtis Rourke missing, it might be this one.
Washington Special Teams SP+ ranking: The Huskies are somehow ranked worse than Nebraska was in this metric. They’re 10-of-17 on field goals (3 blocked), 130th in net punt yardage (35.7 yards), worst in the Big Ten in kickoff return rate (52.7%) and yards per kickoff return (26.8), and average in punt and kickoff returns.
Washington Turnovers Gained: I was surprised by how low this stat was for a team that has created above-average DL havoc and has solid execution from its secondary (3 DBs in Big Ten top-13 in reception rate allowed). But according to College Football Data, Washington ranks 55th in defensive havoc rate created, so there should be some regression on the horizon for Washington’s defense, and it might be at the hands of an Indiana offense that operates on a level Washington hasn’t sniffed yet.
Big Ten Conversion Rates, Offense & Defense
When a team begins a new set of downs, how often does it convert? How does that set of downs typically result?
Observations:
The first thing that jumped out to me here is that Washington ends 7% of its offensive series with field goal attempts. They actually lead the Big Ten in field goal attempts (17) and are 15th in field goal rate (58%). That checks out, as seen in the Advanced Stat Preview, where the Huskies rank 102nd in EPA after the opponent’s 40-yard line. This is good news for an Indiana defense that has looked much better in its own territory since the beginning of the season.
Washington is actually tied for the Big Ten lead in lowest touchdown rate allowed (6%). The Huskies are 16th nationally in touchdowns allowed in the red zone as well (8 TDs in 17 trips for opponents). However, Indiana is 5th in redzone TD rate and leads the country (by a wide margin) in red zone TDs, with 37. Mike Shanahan has put on a masterclass in red zone scheme, so that matchup will be fun.
Offensive Line Preview
Observations:
Washington is a bit of a mess at OL this season after losing four linemen to the NFL and needing to bring in five from the portal to field much of a crew. Among current starters, Washington’s RT, RG, and C are all 2024 transfers, while its LT is a redshirt freshman and LG is a true sophomore (playing his first season as a contributor). To say it’s a patchwork would be an understatement, especially after injuries and previous shifting to find the most effective unit.
The expected tackle pair has combined to allow 37 QB pressures this season, the most by any tackle pairing in the nation, which is particularly egregious given that their LT has played less than half of the team’s snaps. This should be a massive game for Mikail Kamara, Lanell Carr, and Jacob Mangum-Farrar (who played his first snaps in five games last week).
In terms of run-blocking, Washington RB Jonah Coleman is very good, so good that he has earned 79% of 681 rushing yards (19th nationally) after contact. He owns the highest Elusiveness Rating (via PFF) of any RB nationally. While he is questionable to play against Indiana, if he does, getting him on the ground will be a priority, because the Hoosiers will get their chances.
LT Soane Faasolo began as a starter and lost the job (due in large part to injury) before stepping in again after his backup was injured. He is also not yet 100%. LG Landen Hatchett began the season as the backup center before moving to LG. C D'Angalo Titialii owns the most career snaps (2,529), but 84% of those snaps were spent at FCS Portland State. RG Enokk Vimahi probably has the most experience on this OL, as he spent five seasons as a backup at Ohio State after signing as a four-star recruit.
Washington Key Contributors
QB Will Rogers: Will Rogers has been impressive this season, given how bad his OL has been. He’s tied for 4th in the nation in completion percentage (72.2%) and has the same number of turnover-worthy plays as Kurtis Rourke (6). OC Brennan Carroll has done a good job of putting Rogers in position to make plays, and the talent around him certainly helps. One of the most experienced QBs in the country, Rogers is logging his best season since his stellar 4,600-yard season as a sophomore at Mississippi State, after committing to transfer to UW for Kalen DeBoer and former OC Ryan Grubb.
RB Jonah Coleman: Brought over from Arizona, Jonah Coleman is a stud. After ranking 14th nationally in yards per carry (6.9) as a sophomore in 2023, this was his anticipated breakout season before following his coaches to Washington and playing behind the second-worst OL in the Big Ten. He trails only Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty in yards after contact per carry, with 5.43, and is also 4th among Big Ten RBs in receptions (16). This has taken its toll, though, as he only played 10 snaps against Iowa and is questionable for the game Saturday.
WRs Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson: Denzel Boston is probably the best WR Indiana will have seen up to this point, even more so than Tai Felton at Maryland. He’s only a sophomore but has an NFL frame at 6-foot-4 with speed. He’s 2nd in the country with 9 touchdowns and is tied for 6th in contested catches. He is what Nebraska’s WRs wish they were. And Giles Jackson, who was part of the runner-up team last season, is tied with Boston for 5th in the conference in targets (58).
CB Thaddeus Dixon: The sophomore CB leads a fairly stout coverage unit in the defensive backfield. He has allowed just 10 catches on 27 targets for the best reception percentage allowed in the Big Ten (37%), and on those catches, he’s allowed just 93 yards total — in 7 games.
LB Carson Bruener: Tied with Indiana LB Jailin Walker for 5th among Big Ten LBs, according to PFF, Bruener is central to Washington’s defense, but, similar to Jonah Coleman, his health is in question for this weekend.
What BSB is Watching For
Which Washington team shows up Saturday?
The upside of this Washington team is actually pretty high. They are the most solid team at skilled positions and in space — offensively and defensively — that Indiana has played so far and have two coordinators who can scheme their assets into maximized positions, but they’ve been very inconsistent on the interior. All of their Big Ten opponents to this point have been defense-focused, but Washington has logged two solid OL performances, according to PFF, against Northwestern and Rutgers, while absolutely collapsing against Michigan and Iowa. And, most notably, Washington’s defense was no match for Iowa’s offense, which is basically just handoffs to RB Kaleb Johnson (already over 1,000 yards rushing).
If the best version of Washington shows up to Bloomington, this could be competitive, but college football is discovering inconsistent play doesn’t fly against the Hoosiers.
How dominant will Indiana’s DL be?
Washington’s OL is incredibly suspect, as shown in the OL Preview above. Mikail Kamara has been effective on the edge for Indiana, graded 8th nationally by PFF and tied for 3rd in QB pressures. The staff is also asking Lanell Carr to pin his ears back on the edges more than he ever has, and it’s resulted in the 13th-best Pass Rush Production among starting Big Ten DEs. Getting Will Rogers uncomfortable in the pocket will be critical, and Washington’s tackles are not good enough to hold off those two, plus Jacob Mangum-Farrar.
In rush defense, Washington hits the A-gap most often (either shoulder of the center), and when they do run outside of the A-gap, they go to the right. The DTs will be huge in stopping Jonah Coleman, which makes me think we will see a lot of Tyrique Tucker, who played 30 snaps against Nebraska and played very well. He has the most individual stops of all the DTs even though he has played the fewest snaps. CJ West is also graded 7th among Big Ten DTs in rush defense. James Carpenter has also logged his best two performances in Indiana’s two most recent games.
Indiana is graded 3rd in the Big Ten by PFF for both run defense and pass rush, and as the DL continues to round into shape, taking advantage of an OL like Washington’s is a requirement. It would bode well for the final third of the schedule if we see that Saturday.
How much will Indiana commit to the run?
As Galen noted on CrimsonCast in last week’s preview, there is beginning to be enough information on paper to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team now. Washington’s run defense is the loudest vulnerability we’ve seen in an Indiana opponent so far, given its 90+ rankings in rushing success rate allowed and line yards per rush allowed plus allowing 170+ rushing yards to its last three opponents. With Kurtis Rourke out, how much does Indiana commit to the rush, and how much effort does it give toward maintaining balance?
Statistical matchups have proven futile for this offense, since nobody can stop Mike Shanahan and company from doing what they want, but after posting 215 rushing yards on Nebraska, Indiana has proven its capability on the ground, which has been a pleasant surprise this year. And Washington, with a former NFL DBs coach in Stephen Belichick leading the defense, has been strong in coverage so far.
Does Indiana lean into the rush with Tayven Jackson under center, both because of Kurtis Rourke’s absence or because of Jackson’s increased athleticism at QB? Does it stick with its balanced attack because the threat of the pass opens up the run game? How much RPO do we see? It can soften defensive pass rush, provide opportunities for route concepts to open up, and provide chances for Jackson to carry the ball. We will see Saturday, but running opportunities should be there.
Indiana’s defense in space
As noted previously, Washington WR Denzel Boston is a great talent and one of the most efficient WRs in the Big Ten (6-foot-4 with speed, 2nd nationally in TD receptions (9) and 6th in contested catches). He’s the toughest test the secondary has seen so far. WR Giles Jackson (5-foot-9) was a key part of last year’s Washington team in stretches and has just as many targets as Boston (58). The Huskies also have a 6-foot-7 TE in Keleki Latu, who ranks 3rd among Big Ten TEs in receptions.
The problem for Washington is not talent; it’s creating opportunities for that talent. But when those opportunities arise, how will Indiana respond with a talent deficit? This is a major reason why the Hoosiers play roughly 75% of coverage schemes in zone.
How does Washington’s secondary influence the game?
As noted above, Washington has three DBs in the Big Ten top-13 in reception rate allowed. Stephen Belichick is a DBs guy, after coaching them for four seasons in New England and helping establish the weird Rutgers DB-to-New England DB pipeline. He knows how to design a defense to its secondary.
But if Indiana finds ways to chop up the Husky front in the run game, what does that mean for the Washington secondary? Worse yet, what if Indiana actually struggles to run the ball? Just something to keep an eye on.
Field Position and Time of Possession
Indiana finds itself in its second consecutive game where field position is so crucial (for as long as the game is competitive, I suppose — looking at you, Nebraska). Washington has struggled in initial field position on both sides of the ball and also in finding success on special teams, just like Nebraska. But even in a 56-7 blowout, Nebraska held the ball longer than Indiana. That might differ this week against Washington. If Indiana is running the ball more often, it should run the clock, and if the game is competitive, that will become a factor in the second half.
Witt’s Wagers
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last five years for various media outlets, including Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.
Bet: Indiana -6.5
Ben’s 2024 Record: 5-2
Folks, the vibes around this program continue to be high—so high, in fact, that even with Kurtis Rourke's injury, fans remain—dare I say—undaunted.
And honestly, so do I.
I still believe this team can cover a spread of less than a touchdown. Even with backup Tayven Jackson under center, the Hoosier offense is more than capable of getting the job done. We saw what he can do when he stepped in against Nebraska: 7-for-8, 91 yards, and a touchdown. And he looked good doing it.
This isn’t the Jackson from last year, who had to worry about job security and dealt with a lesser (sorry) coach in Tom Allen. This Jackson knows his role within the team and is coached by Curt Cignetti, who has consistently shown that he prepares his team and players well for every game.
Plus, it’s not as if IU lacks a strong running game. Just take a look at the stats Taylor has so wonderfully compiled.
The Hoosiers rank seventh in the country in rushing success rate and eighth in EPA per rush. Across the line of scrimmage, Washington ranks a dismal 90th in the nation in opponent rushing success rate and is coming off a game where they struggled against Iowa’s run game, giving up 220 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns.
The defensive side looks equally strong. IU faces a Huskies team that has struggled to score points in the way we’ve seen IU score; they’ve failed to hit the 20-point mark in three of their last five games and haven’t exceeded 27 points even once in that stretch. If the Huskies struggle to break 20 points on Saturday, they’re going to be in for a long day against an IU offense that can flat-out put up paints.
ESPN’s "Gameday" is in town, The Rock is sold out, and Indiana football is the talk of the nation. This isn’t your parents’ IU Football. This team wins AND covers.
It scares me to say this but I’m more confident this week than any other B1G game. I do not believe Washington can keep up with IU’s offense for an entire game. With both teams presumably running the ball often, I see this as close for awhile and IU pulls away in the late 3Q early 4Q similar to Maryland. IU 42, UW 20
I underestimated the Hoosiers last week and won't make that mistake again. IU 42, Washington 12.