Witt's Wagers: Week 1
Ben Wittenstein offers insight on: Indiana's Team Total against ODU, Indiana games he's eyeing in 2024, and his take on Indiana's Win Total line.
Some of you may remember Witt’s Wagers, featured in each BSB weekly preview during the 2024 season and produced by my good friend and respected betting expert (and IU alumnus) Ben Wittenstein. We’re bringing it back for 2025 and expanding it into its own weekly guest BSB post!
Ben will offer at least one Indiana bet that he likes each week, as well as other bets around college football that may or may not be Indiana-related. He touches on the heavily debated Indiana Win Total line today.
I’m thrilled to have Ben back in the BSB fold, and I know he will make us all lots of money! The edition below is the first installment.
I was honored to have Taylor ask me to come back for my sophomore season as the BSB resident bet giver. We crushed it last season with a 9-4 record, and now we’re hoping to do even better this year. And with no offense intended to our dear numbers leader Taylor, the nerds who do science are always saying that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same spot.
Clearly, they’ve never bet on Indiana football before.
Not only are we going for another hot betting season but we’re going right back to that sweet, sweet honeypot that is the Indiana team total.
Bet: Indiana Team Total Over 38.5 (-108, FanDuel)
There really is nothing too deep about this pick analysis. Despite only one season under Curt Cignetti, we know this IU team loves to beat up on the little guy. In three non-conference games last season, they averaged 53.3 points per contest. They turned the volume up to 10 and never turned it down.
This year, why expect anything else?
Old Dominion brings a defense that struggled with preventing positive plays, and also has mid- to low-tier pass defense. The addition of QB Fernando Mendoza could end up being an upgrade from last season’s Team Total King, Kurtis Rourke.
With returning production on an already solid offensive line—plus some key transfer portal pickups—this IU offense is poised to pick up where they left off last season: dominating smaller teams’ defenses.
Indiana scored 40+ points eight times in 2024, they should have no trouble hitting that mark again to start off 2025.
Games I’m Eyeing This Season
With it being Week 1, it seems important to take a quick look ahead at what could be some key IU games to look forward to betting.
Unless the offense looks absolutely dreadful out of the gate, I’m going to be betting the IU team total over in their next two games at the very least. We may even be able to grab a good number against Big Ten opponents like Michigan State and Maryland; two teams they were able to rack up the points against last year.
I’m likely eyeing whatever the under will be for the Illinois-Indiana game on September 20th. In their higher-pressure games last season under Coach Cig, the Hoosiers tended to slow things down, and often struggled against better defenses. Yet, defensively, they might be better than last season. So in the Illinois game and likely beyond, look at the under as a possible bet.
Bet: Indiana Win Total Over 8.5 Wins (+105, DraftKings)
Sure, this will be a sweat, but at plus money with multiple paths for Indiana to get to nine wins, I like the play.
Seven wins seems like the realistic floor, with potential swing games at home against Wisconsin and Illinois and on the road at Iowa. If they can take two of those three, a nine-win season is absolutely in play.
The key variables: the defense needs to live up to the hype, and Fernando Mendoza has to be a clear upgrade over Kurtis Rourke.
If both happen, IU could even go into Oregon and pull off a surprise.
There are likely 2–3 losses baked into the schedule, but if the Hoosiers handle their business in the winnable games, Over 8.5 wins at +105 offers solid value.
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last six years for various media outlets, including CBS Sports, Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.
Nice article, Taylor.
Pretty daunted to suggest the Hoosier may only get 9 wins.