Witt's Wagers: Week 10
Ben Wittenstein offers insight on the first half in IU's Week 10 game against Maryland, as well as other games he's eyeing this week.
Some of you may remember Witt’s Wagers, featured in each BSB weekly preview during the 2024 season and produced by my good friend and respected betting expert (and IU alumnus) Ben Wittenstein. We’re bringing it back for 2025 and expanding it into its own weekly guest BSB post!
Ben will offer at least one Indiana bet that he likes each week, as well as other bets around college football that may or may not be Indiana-related.
I’m thrilled to have Ben back in the BSB fold, and I know he will make us all lots of money! The edition below is the first installment.
Indiana’s first half dominance made us just a bit richer last week. And while I want to say, “let’s just take the full spread,” this week, I think we can do even better. Much like last Saturday, we’re staying in the first half, but this time, we’re attacking the total.
Bet: First half under 27.5 (-118, BetRivers)
Season Record: 4-4
Maryland relies on its defense. Ranking 11th in EPA/Play, 23rd in conversion rate, and 6th in EPA/Play after the 40, the Terrapins’ strength is when they don’t have the ball. Now, IU has had plenty of success against good defenses, but Maryland will be coming off a bye; they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the No. 2 team in the country visiting town. I think they’ll have a few drives where they successfully stop IU’s offense… or at least slow it down.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland’s offense is more of a disaster than Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark on Broadway. With offensive stats ranking in the 100s, I don’t trust Maryland to do much against this IU defense. By the second half, I have no doubt IU takes control and runs away with it. But in the first half, I think we may see both teams’ offenses struggle to find some rhythm.
OTHER GAMES I’M EYEING
Season Record: 9-9-1
USC -6 (-110, Caesars) — Earlier in the season, Nebraska might’ve been a tempting play. But USC’s Midwest travel is routine by now, and last week’s loss to Notre Dame likely reignited its focus. The Trojans also won’t have to deal with Jeremiyah Love this time. Nebraska’s lone solid win came in Week 1 at Cincinnati; since then, its résumé includes shaky victories over Michigan State, Maryland, and Northwestern. USC’s offense should simply overwhelm a Cornhuskers team that hasn’t faced firepower like this. I’ll take the Trojans to notch a comfortable road win in middle America.
Vanderbilt Team Total Under 21.5 (-120, FanDuel) — We hit the Vandy team total under last week, and we’re going back to it. Texas finally gets a true home game against an SEC opponent, and its defense should be locked in. Mizzou showed how to slow down Diego Pavia and company, and the Longhorns can follow that plan. Texas ranks top-30 in defensive scramble rate and fifth in quality drive rate allowed, per CFBGraphs. This defense makes opponents earn every yard, and after surrendering 38 points to Mississippi State, I expect a focused, aggressive performance at home against a top-10 team.
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last six years for various media outlets, including CBS Sports, Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.