Witt's Wagers: Week 12
Ben Wittenstein offers insight on Indiana's team total against Wisconsin this week, as well as other games he's eyeing.
Some of you may remember Witt’s Wagers, featured in each BSB weekly preview during the 2024 season and produced by my good friend and respected betting expert (and IU alumnus) Ben Wittenstein. We brought it back for 2025 and expanded it into its own weekly guest BSB post!
I can’t even be mad about losing the IU spread last week. They won! Omar Cooper Jr. is a king. Now, fresh off that win, we move to Week 12 still undefeated.
Let’s try to take a crack at yet another insanely high spread game.
Bet: Indiana Team Total over 36.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Season Record: 5-5
After a scare on the road, the Hoosiers are back in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium, and they’re playing a team that just simply stinks. Sure, Wisconsin is coming off a win themselves, but it was at home in terrible weather against a West Coast team in Washington. Usually those games don’t end well for the former Pac-12 teams. Now, the Badgers have to go south and play one of the hottest teams in the land. I don’t think this matchup will be nearly as favorable.
The Wisconsin defense really struggles against the pass. And after a so-so performance by QB Fernando Mendoza last week in Happy Valley, this might just be what the doctor ordered for him to get back on track. I think IU will attack a leaky Wisconsin pass defense and find some early success. IU also is so good at early-down plays—11th in early-down EPA—something that the Badger defense ranks outside the top-70 in.
With the College Football Playoff rankings finally out, every win counts, and so does how you get it. After a close call last week, IU knows they need a statement performance to keep the committee’s attention. Expect points, and lots of them!
OTHER GAMES I’M EYEING
Season Record: 11-12-1
Texas-Georgia 1H Under 23.5 (-115, DraftKings) – This is a simple handicap: two teams that play solid first-half defense and rarely start fast. Georgia’s rush defense will force Arch to throw early, and Texas already struggles to score early, ranking 64th in first-half points. It’ll be like looking in a mirror for Georgia, which will also battle a Texas rush defense ranked 2nd in EPA/rush, per CFBGraphs. With so much on the line and Texas’s defense facing an inconsistent Georgia offense, points should be tough to find early. Both sides are built to slow the tempo from the start.
Air Force +7.5 (-120, FanDuel) - This bet is mostly led by fading UConn after winning as an underdog. After the Huskies’ win over Duke last weekend, I think we’re getting them at a premium as more than a touchdown favorite. Sure, Air Force’s defense might literally be the worst out there, but its offense should allow it to keep up with a UConn team that might not fully be over its win against Duke.
Alabama -6 (-108, DraftKings) - This might be my most square-looking Best Bet of the season. But you know what? Sometimes it’s hip to be square. I know Bama can be sluggish at times, but I just don’t trust this Oklahoma team. They beat a Tennessee team that’s been meh this season. They’ve lost to Texas and Ole Miss. I can’t really find a game that tickles my fancy on believing in them. The Tide, meanwhile, seem to be improving a little each week. Defensively, they look ferocious, and I’m not sure the Sooners are capable of consistently getting points on the board against them. I think we see the Crimson Tide glide to an easy win at home.
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last six years for various media outlets, including CBS Sports, Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.