Witt's Wagers: Week 4
Ben Wittenstein offers insight on the Over/Under for Indiana-Illinois, as well as other games he's eyeing this week.
Some of you may remember Witt’s Wagers, featured in each BSB weekly preview during the 2024 season and produced by my good friend and respected betting expert (and IU alumnus) Ben Wittenstein. We’re bringing it back for 2025 and expanding it into its own weekly guest BSB post!
Ben will offer at least one Indiana bet that he likes each week, as well as other bets around college football that may or may not be Indiana-related.
I’m thrilled to have Ben back in the BSB fold, and I know he will make us all lots of money! The edition below is the first installment.
Man, I’m so excited for this IU game. As a 2017 graduate, this type of prime time spot with this much on the line was unheard of. The Rock is going to be, well, rocking, and Kirkwood will be a beautiful bottleneck of fans the entire night.
With that being said, six points is a lot to lay for an IU team that’s seeing its first Big Ten opponent of the season. So I chose a somewhat different route.
Bet: Under 53.5 (-110, Fanatics)
Season Record: 2-1
Listen, I’m not happy with myself either for taking this under.
No one wants to root for an under, especially in a prime time game. But much like a doctor saving lives or a fireman rescuing someone from a burning building, I’m doing what must be done for the greater good.
The tales of offensive talent from both teams are indeed true, yet the tales that aren’t told as often are the skills of both teams’ defenses. Illinois comes in ranked 38th in defensive success rate, while Indiana holds the 8th-ranked spot. The Illini’s talented secondary will prevent IU’s explosive offense from getting behind them, and Indiana’s run game might struggle a bit with Illinois’ 24th-ranked run defense.
The Hoosiers bring with them a 6th-ranked rush defense, and they rank 1st (!!) in defensive quality drive rate. Meaning they really screw up opponents’ offensive drives. Sure, Luke Altmyer was hailed as a dark horse Heisman guy, but on the road in prime time won’t be the place he’ll shine.
This Big Ten matchup won’t be three yards and a cloud of dust, it might be more like seven yards and some flying grass. But don’t expect it to be high flying, and high scoring like games of the past.
OTHER GAMES I’M EYEING
Season Record: 3-3
Michigan State +18.5 (-110) @ USC — USC looks like a powerhouse right now, so it’s tough to make a strong case for Michigan State to win. But the Spartans seem underrated. I’ll channel my Magic 8 Ball: Will they win? Outlook not so good. Lose by less than 18? Most likely. The line opened at 13 at Circa and ballooned to 18.5 — that feels excessive. This isn’t your older brother’s Michigan State. This is a new, improved Spartans team. MSU owns a top-40 offense in points per play, ranks 33rd in EPA per rush, and sits top 35 in early downs EPA. They’ve shown they can bring offensive heat — maybe not enough to win, but likely enough to keep it within three possessions.
Tulane +13.5 (-105) @ Ole Miss — Shoutout to Jake Retzlaff for what he’s done with this Tulane offense. Top-50 in points per possession and 32nd in quality drive length. Ole Miss is no doubt a good team, but they’ve got No. 3 LSU on slate for next week, and as much as Lane Kiffin loves to run up the score, I think he loves to keep his playbook from prying eyes even more. Perhaps we see a more basic Ole Miss team in the 2nd half, or Tulane even catches them looking ahead to next week.
Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last six years for various media outlets, including CBS Sports, Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). You can find Ben on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.