Indiana's 5.5 Win Total Line, Concerns at CB

Stadium's Ben Wittenstein joins BSB to discuss win total lines, and BSB breaks down the position that is cause for most concern at the moment: CB.

A couple books have released their lines for win totals in 2024. Indiana seems locked at 5.5 wins, as all books I’ve seen have assigned this win total to the Hoosiers. Below is how Action Network recently set the lines for the Big Ten:

• Ohio State: 10.5

• Oregon: 10.5

• Michigan: 9.5

• Penn State: 9.5

• Iowa: 7.5

• Nebraska: 7.5

• USC: 7.5

• Washington: 7.5

• Maryland: 7.0

• Rutgers: 6.5

• Wisconsin: 6.5

• Illinois: 5.5

• Indiana: 5.5

• Northwestern: 5.5

• UCLA: 5.5

• Minnesota: 5.0

• Michigan State: 4.5

• Purdue: 4.5

Given that Indiana hasn’t won 6 games since 2020, went 9-27 in the last three seasons combined, and won three Big Ten games in that same span, a 5.5 win total line seems to show that someone is noticing the momentum created by Curt Cignetti and his staff this offseason. At the same time, there are a ton of questions around this Indiana team. In the Bite-Sized Bison projected depth chart, only 6 of 22 offensive and defensive starters are returners from 2023, and 14 of the 22 have no experience at the Power Five level. Also, as imperfect as the model is at predicting preseason quality, ESPN’s SP+ has Indiana last in the Big Ten at the moment (90th nationally) – simply showing that Indiana has a tall hill to climb in relation to its recent history and to other programs’ efforts too.

To better understand these lines and what that 5.5 line means for Indiana, I called up my good friend Ben Wittenstein, who specializes in sports betting content for Stadium. 

BSB: Most books have settled on Indiana at 5.5 wins in 2024. What might be the logic behind that line?

BW: Uncertainty. Or maybe ignorance? Maybe it’s a little bit of both. While Indiana’s offseason from the football gods has been received well by fans, let’s face it: IU football news just doesn’t make waves nationally, and because of that, their futures numbers are often off or simply not bet by sharps. It’s easy to understand the uncertainty around the team: new coach, new players, new conference members; it makes sense. But a quick glance at the schedule shows ~potentially~ seven wins if the Hoosiers play up to the hype of this team. Now, we don’t know how well the transfers fill in the gaps or even how well Curt Cignetti can coach in the Big Ten, but on paper, this should be a six-win team. If you can get even money or better on the over 5.5–and are an optimistic type–you might as well hit the over.

BSB: What are some variables books might use to come to this type of conclusion (not just in relation to this specific line)?

BW: A lot of it really does come from how the sharps (the good bettors) bet the number when it comes out. Books have to put out a win total number and do their best to make a good guess right off the bat, but sometimes if their number is off compared to sharp bettors’ numbers, the win total will move quickly right after it's listed. We also might see that 5.5 move to 6 or 4.5 depending on news from camps in July and August, as well. So it’s a weird mix of sharp bettors making bets early and then any crucial info coming out of the Fall camps in August.

BSB: Would you anticipate this line changing at any point before the season begins?

BW: Honestly, not really. What might change is the juice on the win total number, so maybe it goes from +115 on the over to +105, something like that depending on any news. But barring any serious national love for a potential breakout season for IU, I think 5.5 is pretty set in stone for a team that has so many question marks surrounding it. 

BSB: Do you anticipate teams becoming more difficult to forecast in the spring with the growth of the transfer portal?

BW: Absolutely. With the movement being so extreme right now, no one really knows anything about the teams until August because not only will they have new rosters but we won’t know how well guys gel with each other because there’s so much turnover. The current landscape that has made betting bowl games nearly impossible is now making betting early win totals just as difficult. 

---

Concerns at Cornerback

In case you missed it earlier this week, Bite-Sized Bison released its first 2024 projected depth chart. One of the concerns raised was at CB. This is the position I’m personally most concerned about, and a majority of subscribers who made it to the bottom of the newsletter and voted in the reader poll felt the same.