Indiana's Roster after Winter Transfer Portal Period
Assessing Indiana's roster after the month-long Winter Transfer Portal Period
We have now passed the one-month anniversary of Curt Cignetti’s introduction as Indiana’s head football coach, and along with that comes the closing of the winter transfer portal period (Jan. 2). The Early Signing Period has also closed (Dec. 22), and what remains are the Regular Signing Period (2/7 - 4/1) and the Spring Transfer Portal Period (4/15 - 4/30). I’d anticipate Cignetti and the staff remaining as active as anyone during those final two periods, given the time constraints they faced at the starting line, but the roster, as it stands, is nearly a finished product, save for various positions. Also, just because the portal is “closing” doesn’t mean players won’t continue to enter, so anyone on roster could possibly still enter in the next couple days if need be. There could possibly be some changes in the days after this newsletter is published too.
Now, let’s get to the transfers.
The staff has reeled in 17 scholarship transfers (9 from James Madison), and as Cignetti foretold, the roster looks quite different than it did at season’s end. The transfer class currently sits at 8th in the nation, according to 247Sports. Here’s a link to the live 2024 scholarship chart, and here are some ways this chart remains unfinished:
While players currently in the transfer portal are noted on the chart, they aren’t counted toward the scholarship count. I wouldn’t anticipate any of them returning at this point, but I left them on just in case.
There likely have already been some unannounced cuts (likely at TE primarily but maybe at LB too) that we won’t know about until spring or fall camps.
The 85-scholarship limit doesn’t need to be achieved until fall camp, so that will likely fluctuate until then.
It seems like – based off the James Madison teams, the moves they’ve made already, and info offered to Bite-Sized Bison from sources – Cignetti and his staff will want to create a team whose identity is tied to the DL and QB positions (which will require OL as well). This is different from Tom Allen’s teams, which held their identities in the LB position with a very different philosophy of DL play, and the running game. I’ll expand on this at the appropriate positions below.
Indiana Roster Turnover
Cignetti stressed multiple times in December that he wanted transfers who had produced in the past, not players who were second or third in their respective depth charts. While, compared to Tom Allen and the previous Indiana staff, he had the luxury of picking from a developed roster at JMU, he added production and experience in a way that deviated significantly from Allen & Co.’s performance in the portal just a year ago, when a huge portion of the 2022 roster had left.
In January 2023, after the portal had closed, Indiana sat at a -6,584 net snap deficit (total snaps lost vs. portal snaps gained). In January 2024, Indiana is at just -1,509. In both offseasons, Indiana had 23 outgoing transfers, according to 247Sports, and in 2022-23, Indiana earned 23 incoming transfers versus 17 this offseason. Part of this disparity can be attributed to the fact that Indiana’s roster was timing out exiting 2022, so even though they had a surplus of snaps through the portal, netting +1,396 (214 snaps per portal addition), the amount of snaps leaving via graduation and the NFL was insurmountable, something that was never headed off ahead of time. This offseason, Indiana has netted +1,538 snaps (434 snaps per portal addition).
The chart below shows this offseason’s net snap deficit sorted by position.
Source: Pro Football Focus
Quick Positional Review
For a quick synopsis of how I’m personally feeling about each position before we get into the weeds:
QB: Deep and talented
RB: Stacked and experienced without creating urgency in the room for next offseason
WR: Stacked for 2024 but thin afterwards (could still add here for development)
TE: Seemingly headed in the right direction
OT: Stacked
IOL: Uncertain but options are there
DT: Top heavy but solid nonetheless
DE: Somewhat concerning (could still add here)
LB: Solid but uncertain after 2024
CB: Deep but not confident here
S: Alarming and thin (could certainly still add here)
Top 5 Transfer Acquisitions
Kurtis Rourke
Trey Wedig
James Carpenter
Aiden Fisher
Jailin Walker
Let’s go position-by-position (“incoming” and “outgoing” are reflective of the portal, not overall).
Quarterbacks
Incoming: Kurtis Rourke, Tyler Cherry (recruit), Alberto Mendoza (recruit)
Outgoing: Brendan Sorsby, Dexter Williams (expected), Tim Carpenter (recruit)
I’ve noted in a previous BSB about the fairly insane improvements QBs have made when stepping into the starting role in James Madison’s offensive system, and, assuming that system can translate to Indiana and the Big Ten, the staff will be combining that system with Ohio transfer QB Kurtis Rourke, who is about as proven as could be outside of the Power 5. Read more on Kurtis Rourke here.
Rourke noted to On3 that Indiana is looking to run an offense that is “similar to NFL offenses,” which could suggest a number of things given where NFL offenses are going, but based on the players added, would probably be a pocket passer with dynamic pass-catching threats around him, including pass-catching threats at TE (more on that later) and RB. Maintaining Carter Smith and adding Wisconsin transfer Trey Wedig also signals more passing in the future, as Indiana invested heavily in the tackle positions – arguably the most significant OL positions to a passing attack — and let the worst pass-blockers on 2023’s OL go.
There’s still a ton to say about this position, but I’ll leave it there for now.
Running Backs
Incoming: Justice Ellison, Kaelon Black, Ty Son Lawton, Trent Howland (withdrew)
Outgoing: Jaylin Lucas (expected)
This room is stacked for the next couple years (see below). I like this approach from the new staff. RBs will nearly always be available in the portal. Look no further than Mike Penix’s RB at Washington, Dillon Johnson, who transferred from Mississippi State, or Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy, who transferred from Iowa. Indiana’s leading rushers each of the last three seasons (Stephen Carr, Shaun Shivers, Josh Henderson) were all from the portal too. But the premier RBs at most schools are accessed via high school recruiting and subsequent development, like Kyle Monangai at Rutgers or the nation’s rushing leader, Ollie Gordon, at Oklahoma State. Trent Howland could possibly be someone in this conversation if he shows further development. Shoring up the room for the next couple years gives the staff time to build behind these guys in the coming recruiting cycles.
Josh Henderson: 1 year left
Ty Son Lawton: 1 year
Justice Ellison: 2 years
Kaelon Black: 2 years
Trent Howland: 2 years
David Holloman: 2 years
I wouldn’t anticipate Holloman getting many touches and could see him transferring out eventually, but other than that, I see little certainty in who rises to the top in this room, if that’s even the intent. Henderson seems like the starter, given his varied skillset – from rushing to receiving to pass-blocking – but Howland showed promise in the running game that suggested a higher ceiling as a ball carrier than Henderson. There is also a ton of experience in this room, with nearly four 1,000-yard careers in the same backfield.
Henderson: 212 carries, 944 yards, 6 TDs, 37 catches, 409 yards, 5 TDs
Howland: 83 carries, 386 yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches, 22 yards
Ty Son Lawton: 585 carries, 2,683 yards, 26 TDs, 32 catches, 267 yards, 2 TDs
Kaelon Black: 266 carries, 1,344 yards, 5 TDs, 44 catches, 440 yards, 6 TDs
Justice Ellison: 427 carries, 1,901 yards, 15 TDs, 24 catches, 163 yards, 1 TD
It’s tough to get a gauge on the two JMU RBs (Lawton and Black) because the JMU OL was actually not good at all (122nd in line yards per rush and 101st in rushing success as a team). But Lawton recorded a 1,000-yard rushing season at Stony Brook in 2021 – 1 of 16 FCS RBs to do so that year – and Black earned 44.7% of his 2023 rushing yards from carries of 15+ yards, which is 44th in the country, far better than anyone else in the room currently and one spot behind Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson. There is explosion to be had from those two.
It seems Indiana will also be getting the RBs involved in the passing game, as the RBs rank as follows in PFF’s receiving grade among RBs with 70+ carries in 2023: Josh Henderson (30th), Justice Ellison (47th), Kaelon Black (48th), Ty Son Lawton (58th), and Trent Howland (130th). They combined for 636 yards on 69 catches (9.2 yards per catch) in 2023, and Indiana’s new RB coach, John Miller, played WR at JMU.
In contrast with some of the ideas above, Howland graded 94th in yards after contact per rush, followed by Ellison at 126th. So Indiana has a couple bruisers too.
Once this information is all fairly understood, some roles can be somewhat predicted for 2024, but before any of that, there will be heavy competition here, which is what every Big Ten RB room needs. I’d personally put any concern of preseason transfers to bed, as each RB knew what he was signing on for. None of this should have been a surprise to any of them.
Wide Receivers
Incoming: Miles Cross, Ke’Shawn Williams, Myles Price, Donaven McCulley (withdrew)
Outgoing: Cam Camper (expected), Jaquez Smith (expected)
Yet another offensive room that seems stacked for 2024 at this point. Losing Cam Camper is obviously unfortunate, but it seems fans are used to Camper not being on the field, as he missed 9 of 24 games due to injury.
I’ll say this to get it out of the way: the only downside I see to this room is that it isn’t exactly built for the future yet. McCulley, Cross, Price, EJ Williams, and Andison Coby will all leave after 2024, unless injuries force any of them to activate their unused redshirts. After them, it’s Omar Cooper, Kam Perry, and unproven freshmen, with Ke’Shawn Williams maintaining a COVID year. While there is plenty to like, I wouldn’t be surprised if the staff is still active at this position before the 2024 season.
Miles Cross, one of Rourke’s favorite targets at Ohio, was a great addition to the room, as he was one of the strongest WRs in the MAC in 2023. Cross, McCulley, and Cooper combined for 26-for-40 on contested targets (65%). For reference, McCulley and Cooper were tied for 3rd in the Big Ten with their 66.7% contested catch percentage each. Cross would’ve been 9th in the conference. The Hoosiers have one of the physically strongest outside WR corps in the nation.
But slot receiver is where the new staff needed to focus its attention, with Jaquez Smith – who never really panned out – in the portal and Kam Perry left as the only true slot WR. Some had floated the idea of Jaylin Lucas at slot, but that couldn’t be a fit because Lucas can’t catch at the level necessary. Of 308 pass-catchers (WR, RB, TE) to play 150+ snaps at slot in 2023, Lucas’ 15% drop rate would’ve finished tied for 287th if he qualified. Even though he is shifty and can be used in the passing game, he wasn’t built or developed to play slot at that level.
Ke’Shawn Williams and Myles Price were excellent additions for slot, though. Of 143 pass-catchers to record 170+ slot snaps in 2023, Williams graded 38th and Price graded 66th. Price was also graded as the 48th-best punt returner among 87 returners with 10+ punt returns, which would seemingly address a major issue on the 2023 roster. Williams also has experience returning kickoffs. Having two of the nation’s top-50% slot WRs is a great luxury, especially since Williams has two years remaining. This signals some potential four-WR sets in 2024, which would be a welcomed change.
A depth chart that looks something like 1.) Donaven McCulley, EJ Williams 2.) Miles Cross, Omar Cooper and 3.) Myles Price, Ke’Shawn Williams is simply unfair.
Here is the career production in that room:
Donaven McCulley: 64 catches, 813 yards, 7 TDs
EJ Williams: 63 catches, 723 yards, 2 TDs
Miles Cross: 105 catches, 1,301 yards, 8 TDs
Myles Price: 161 catches, 1,751 yards, 10 TDs
Ke’Shawn Williams: 107 catches, 1,385 yards, 5 TDs
Omar Cooper: 18 catches, 267 yards, 2 TDs
Andison Coby: 24 catches, 284 yards, 2 TDs
Tight Ends
Incoming: Zach Horton
Outgoing: Aaron Steinfeldt (expected)
This is the position I hope we see the most change on offense, and all signs seem to point toward that. Readers are probably tired of me beating this drum, but TEs combined for 1,004 snaps in 2023 while recording PFF Offensive Grades that ranked 36th (Bomba), 38th (Walker), and 42nd (Archer) among 46 Big Ten TEs with 50+ snaps. The idea was that TEs on the field would aid in run-blocking since none of them were true threats in the passing attack, but Bomba recorded the best run-blocking grade in the room, and that grade ranked 28th in the conference. Indiana would often have multiple TEs on the field at once, too, which left off some key playmakers on any given play. Archer recorded the most TE snaps on the team (339) and was 20 shy of Jaylin Lucas and 45 shy of Dequece Carter. Losing AJ Barner, who is graded 2nd among the nation’s TEs in 2023, didn’t help matters, but it always seemed like residue of what Indiana thought could be an effective rushing attack, so hopefully, with a change in philosophy, there will be a change in how the position is used in 2024.
Enter Zach Horton. Horton saw his role expand in 2023, where he was a factor in JMU’s passing game. He was targeted 37 times (58th among TEs nationally) and caught 6 TDs (tied for 6th nationally). Among 383 TEs with 50+ blocking snaps, Horton graded 35th in run-blocking. James Bomba (IU’s highest-graded run-blocker at TE) graded 227th.
It would make sense if the TE position became Horton-heavy with Archer or Bomba seeing the field for particular packages.
Offensive Line
Incoming: Trey Wedig, Tyler Stephens, Nick Kidwell, Carter Smith (withdrew), Mike Katic (withdrew from draft)
Outgoing: Zach Carpenter, Josh Sales, Matthew Bedford, Kahlil Benson
What became clear to me as Indiana retained Carter Smith and Mike Katic and added Trey Wedig is that Indiana could’ve retained anyone on this OL that it viewed as a priority. Seeing Bedford (in particular) and Benson leave was startling initially, but even though Bedford finished 2023 as the 6th-highest graded guard in the Big Ten, there was either a comfort in letting him go or a strategy in resource management that didn’t see him as a priority. The same could be said for the other three who left. With Bob Bostad coming back, these decisions are all made as a result of his scouting too, which I’ve chosen to trust, given the improvements he made at OL in just one offseason.
Where Week 1 OL seems to be heading:
LT - Carter Smith
LG - Mike Katic/Tyler Stephens/Max Longman/Vinny Fiacable
C - Mike Katic/Bray Lynch
RG - Nick Kidwell
RT - Trey Wedig
The amount of investment that Indiana placed in the tackle positions (and letting their two worst pass-blockers in Bedford and Benson go) suggests to me that the offense hopes to pass in 2024, which is exciting. Smith graded 15th nationally (2nd in the Big Ten) among tackles in his draft class in 2023, and when Wedig played RT under Bostad at Wisconsin in 2022, he graded 11th nationally (1st in the Big Ten) among all tackles in his draft class. There is potential for this tackle duo to be the best Indiana has seen since 2015 (Jason Spriggs, Dimitric Camiel).
But the interior is still a little uncertain to anyone not named Bob Bostad. There are several possibilities here. One is the one laid out above, where Nick Kidwell, who was graded as the 5th-best Sun Belt OL during his last full season at JMU (2022), plays at RG. Kidwell has one year remaining, and while there’s a tiny chance he could play RT over Wedig, since that’s where he’s played 2,032 of his 2,295 snaps, Wedig (6-foot-7) has size on Kidwell (6-foot-5) and has shown promise in Big Ten play at RT. Kidwell also didn’t transfer to Indiana to back up Wedig, and Wedig didn’t transfer to Indiana to play a non-tackle position, I’m sure.
Mike Katic, who was graded as Indiana’s second-worst OL in 2023, has some extremely valuable experience (2,598 snaps) that would be tough to replicate through the portal. That’s why I believe he could be at center, especially since he has the most experience at the position (293 snaps in 2022). Katic also graded as Indiana’s best pass-blocker on last year’s OL, by quite a margin. However, there has been positive talk of Bray Lynch in the last year, so if Bostad is comfortable with him at center, Katic could go back to LG.
LG is a bit of a toss-up. My first thought is to slot JMU transfer tackle Tyler Stephens there, but Stephens has never graded at or above average within a substantial sample size. He graded 59th among 77 OLs in the Sun Belt last season. He does offer a great deal of versatility, though, and did have 400+ snaps at LG in 2022. But Stephens’ addition feels like a depth addition with increased value given his additional year of eligibility. Max Longman and Vinny Fiacable both got into games last season on the interior and played well in a small sample size, Fiacable especially in pass-blocking.
My preferred OL unit (as it stands):
LT - Carter Smith
LG - Mike Katic
C - Bray Lynch
RG - Nick Kidwell
RT - Trey Wedig
Defensive Line
Incoming: James Carpenter, Mikail Kamara
Outgoing: Nick James, Patrick Lucas, LeDarrius Cox
Indiana has had a dismal pass rush for quite awhile, so Cignetti’s addition of Pat Kuntz and Buddha Williams – coaches who developed two of the top-five national sacks leaders in 2023 – is promising. Tom Allen’s philosophy for the DL seemed pretty clear over time, eat up blocks to free space for LBs and safeties to make havoc plays, particularly in the run game. Kuntz and Williams value block-shedding along the line, and if the investment here and previous precedence translate to Indiana, the identity of the defense will shift here, which changes a lot about how a defense is constructed and gameplanned. Since the staff was collected, they’ve added three new high school DLs to the recruiting class and likely won’t stop there.
Source: Pro Football Focus
On the interior alone, Indiana is stacked for 2024. James Carpenter will go fairly under the radar during transfer season, but his addition is huge. He’s been a top-five DT in the Sun Belt for 2 seasons and graded 26th nationally in 2023 (would’ve been 4th in the Big Ten). Cignetti tweeted “It all starts with Carp” when his transfer was announced. While most DTs won’t produce massive box scores, Carpenter finished 5th on JMU in tackles and added 9.0 TFLs, 4.0 sacks, 4 PBUs, 1 INT, 2 fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble. I’d be surprised if that didn’t translate to the Big Ten in some way. With Philip Blidi and Marcus Burris returning, Indiana has 3 of the top-22 Big Ten DTs, according to PFF, and two of the top-10 pass-rushers (Carpenter and Blidi) at the position in the conference. Those three with the young DTs behind them should be enough for 2024, but Burris is the only one of the trio set to return after 2024.
On the outside, Indiana still has room to grow. Lanell Carr will likely remain at DE or some sort of hybrid as he transitions out of the BULL position in 2023. From that spot, Carr graded 25th in pass rush within the Big Ten, which isn’t ideal for a starting DE when DL is integral to a defensive system. Mikail Kamara can also rush the passer, as evidenced in his 7.5 sacks in 2023, but he’s seemed to be more of a run defense DE – and a very effective one, with his 18.5 TFLs last year. He graded 23rd among Sun Belt DEs in pass rush last year, and I’ll be interested in how he performs when not across the line from the nation’s leading pass rusher, Jalen Green. Kuntz and Williams developed DEs who ranked 13th and 22nd nationally in win percentage (blocking shedding) last season, and Carr and Kamara ranked 201st and 205th, respectively. There’s a chance that they were simply not tasked to shed blocks and rush the passer in 2023 too. This specific aspect of the DL could take time to develop where the staff wants it, but they’ve approached this position aggressively so far.
Defensive end is a position I fully expect the staff to remain active with throughout the rest of the offseason, especially after the number of offers they extended to DEs in the first month on campus.
Linebackers
Incoming: Jailin Walker, Aiden Fisher
Outgoing: Jared Casey (expected), Myles Jackson, Anthony Jones
There’s a real possibility that the new staff will attempt to transplant its two JMU starting LBs – Jailin Walker and Aiden Fisher – into the Indiana defense. Fisher led JMU in tackles last season, with 108, 47 more than the second-most on the team, who happened to be Walker, with 61. Neither was tasked with causing havoc in the backfield (11.5 TFLs and 3.0 sacks between them), so they were able to effectively play in coverage, with 11 PBUs combined and an INT for Fisher. Indiana’s 2023 LBs graded 31st and 33rd out of 36 Big Ten LBs in coverage.
Walker’s PFF grades are impressive too. He finished 2023 17th among the nation's LBs and added the 12th-best coverage grade. Fisher graded 18th among the Sun Belt’s LBs but was 7th in pass-rush production (havoc per pass-rush snap) and allowed the 6th-lowest NFL passer rating when targeted. Bryant Haines did a great job developing the two LBs, and their efficiency makes their translation to the Big Ten promising.
Josh Rudolph will likely stay in the mix too, but after him, it’s tough to tell how the staff would evaluate Hohlt – a walk-on – and the younger LBs. Losing Myles Jackson and Anthony Jones thins out that room a bit too.
Cornerbacks
Incoming: None
Outgoing: James Monds, Jordan Shaw
We saw the cornerbacks get exploited towards the end of the 2023 season in some ways that leave me doubting how strong that room really is, between Nic Toomer, Kobee Minor, Jamier Johnson, Jamari Sharpe, and JoJo Johnson. According to Cignetti’s method of evaluating the roster’s talent, each individually must’ve done enough to prove they were among the top-50 talented players on roster, and if that’s the case – and they can be developed like the staff did with JMU true freshman D’Angelo Ponds – there’s a depth to the room unseen in other rooms within the program. Minor and Johnson still have second seasons with the staff, and Sharpe has a third.
As impressive as Jordan Shaw was as a prospect (No. 613 nationally), his profile seemed to fit a run defense-first skillset, which he did well in his four games last season filling in at Husky. But he graded as the worst coverage CB on the team, allowing 8 catches on 12 targets for an average of 15 yards. He was graded 52nd out of 73 Big Ten CBs in coverage and 8th in run defense, and while tackling is certainly significant to any position on the defensive side, the JMU staff seemed to really value good coverage DBs (more on this below). Some of this might be unfair to Shaw though, as he was thrust into the Husky spot, and it didn’t seem like anyone in the program knew what Husky was supposed to do from game to game. I’m sure he will be fine at Arizona.
Safeties
Incoming: None
Outgoing: Louis Moore, Phillip Dunnam, Jordan Grier
I mentioned earlier how a defensive philosophy based in the DL will change the way the defense is constructed. That could be seen in the way JMU’s LBs were free from overburden in pass rush and run defense and could perform in coverage, as the DL offered enough havoc in the backfield to open things up at the mid-level. The same goes for safeties and, by extension, cornerbacks. In Allen’s 4-2-5, the safeties, particularly free safety (Phillip Dunnam), were under immense pressure because of the burden on the LBs. This worked well when Kane Wommack was designing creative blitz packages that kept the offense guessing, but as we’ve seen the last few years — through the regression of DBs like Devon Matthews, Tiawan Mullen, Jaylin Williams, Juwan Burgess, and others — without that scheme, DBs are left hanging in Allen’s defense. If the focus becomes the DL shedding blocks and getting into the backfield, LBs are more free to roam and safeties are more available to help CBs. Hence, the change in skillset needed in the defensive backfield.
Dunnam and Moore can certainly cover, as was evidenced by each of their 3 INTs last year, but they were recruited and developed to stop the run first. And that’s what they did. Moore and Dunnam graded 12th and 15th, respectively, among all Big Ten DBs in run defense last year. At some point, stopping the run is imperative for safeties, of course, but there were three safeties (Moore, Dunnam, Pierre) graded inside the top-5 in Indiana’s rush defense in 2023, while there was only 1 in JMU’s top-10 last year. It just wasn’t as necessary within the JMU scheme.
I was among the first to stress that Indiana needed to retain Moore and Dunnam this offseason, and they will be productive at their next stops, but I understand why the staff might have moved on from them or prioritized their resources elsewhere.
This position still remains a premier concern, though. Josh Sanguinetti seems to fit what the staff is going for at free safety, and I’m curious how the staff sees Bryson Bonds and Tyrik McDaniel, who combined for 11 snaps in 2023. Because after those three, true sophomore Amare Ferrell and true freshman Jah Jah Boyd are it. Seems like depth will be needed here, at the very least. The staff might also perceive some of the CBs as fits at safety too.
Specialists
Incoming: Derek McCormick (kicker), Mark Langston (long snapper)
Outgoing: Chris Freeman (kicker)
Kicker was such a bizarre position in 2023. It seemed like, while Indiana had Chris Freeman at kicker, it didn’t fully trust him kicking field goals, and why he was kicking field goals was strange as well, given Nico Radicic. Now, Indiana has added another kicker in Derek McCormick from Louisiana Monroe. McCormick was tied for 27th nationally in field goal percentage, hitting 10-of-12, including two from 50+ yards. He also handled kickoffs, and while it’s been said that he will handle kickoffs at Indiana, it’s difficult to imagine a kicker who graded 50th in the nation and was one of just 36 kickers nationally to hit at least two 50+-yard field goals wouldn’t be favored over a redshirt freshman kicker.
This is the most detailed and comprehensive rundown of an IU football team I’ve seen out there. Keep up the great work.
Just an awesome breakdown, as always. Thought provoking, detailed, and informative.