IUWBB NCAAT Preview, CFB Spring Transfers in 2024

It's a tough group playing in Bloomington during the NCAA Tournament. How does IUWBB match up?

The scene is set. Indiana was assigned the fourth seed in what might be the toughest region in the bracket, with No. 1 overall-seeded South Carolina awaiting the survivor of the four-team group in Bloomington on the other side of this weekend. Not only is the best team in the country on the other side, but the four teams playing in Bloomington this weekend are also tough. According to Her Hoops Stats’ overall rating, they shake out as follows:

• No. 4 Indiana: 9

• No. 5 Oklahoma: 33

• No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast: 34

• No. 13 Fairfield: 67

The good news for the Hoosiers is they’ll be playing in front of a home crowd at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where they’ve not lost in two years. 

Indiana

• Record: 24-5

• Her Hoops Stats Rating: 9

• Her Hoops Stats Offensive Rating: 7

• Her Hoops Stats Defensive Rating: 20

Source: Her Hoops Stats

Offensive Heat Map

(The size of the hexagons conveys the volume of shots from those areas. The color scale shows the difference at each area from the Division I average)

Defensive Heat Map

(The size of the hexagons conveys the volume of shots from those areas. The color scale shows the difference at each area from the Division I average)

This Indiana team is undeniably skilled and one of the top teams in the country, but this is not 2023’s NCAA Tournament team. The biggest slippage between the two is on the defensive end, where Indiana sits at the 64th percentile in defensive rating, its lowest rank in the metric since 2018-19 and pretty far from last season’s 86th percentile. Also, covering the role that Grace Berger left has not been easy, but the rise of Sara Scalia (from 2.6 win shares to 4.0) as a top-20 three-point shooter in a sort of return to form and the increase of Chloe Moore-McNeil (from 14.1% usage rate to 17.0%) and Yarden Garzon’s (from 19.2% to 21.8%) roles have patched that loss in many ways. Shooting has certainly cloaked some concerns with this team, as the Hoosiers rank 2nd in effective field goal percentage (58.2%), 5th in two-point percentage (57.1%), and 1st in three-point percentage (40.2%). A cold scoring night leaves the Hoosiers somewhat average overall, though, and with injuries to Mackenzie Holmes, Sydney Parrish, Lexus Bargesser, and Lilly Meister following IU into the Tournament, there’s plenty of uncertainty around just how far this team can push into the field. They are, undoubtedly, the best team of this group and haven’t lost in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in two years, so there is an expectation that the Hoosiers will advance to challenge the No. 1 overall seed South Carolina in the Sweet 16. 

RELATED: The Prodigious Rise of Indiana Women’s Basketball (2/24/2023)

So let’s take a look at who lies ahead of Indiana, in order of likelihood that IU plays them…

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Fairfield

• Record: 31-1

• Her Hoops Stats Rating: 67

• Players to watch: Meghan Anderson (freshman 6-1 forward; 15.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 36.2% from three, 85th in PER, 98.7 percentile in Defensive Rating), Janelle Brown (senior 5-6 guard; 13.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.5 spg, 109th in PER, 99.6 percentile in Defensive Rating)

Offensive Heat Map

(The size of the hexagons conveys the volume of shots from those areas. The color scale shows the difference at each area from the Division I average)

Defensive Heat Map

(The size of the hexagons conveys the volume of shots from those areas. The color scale shows the difference at each area from the Division I average)

Who is Fairfield?

Fairfield is an impressive basketball team. According to Her Hoops Stats, they’ve made the 5th-best improvement in Her Hoops Stats’ overall rating and the best improvement of any team in the Field of 68. They’ve won 29 games in a row! But if the Stags hadn’t defeated Niagara in overtime to win the MAAC Conference Tournament, Indiana would likely be playing someone else. How is that possible for a team that is 31-1 and ranked No. 25 in the AP Top 25? Because, according to Sports Reference, Fairfield ranks 343rd (out of 360) in strength of schedule. That’s 4th-lowest in the Tournament, and the three teams beneath Fairfield also needed conference tournament titles to enter the field. The Stags played three Power 6 teams this season: lost to Vanderbilt (22-9, 12 seed playing in the First Four), beat Rutgers (8-24, not in NCAAT), and beat St. John’s (17-14, not in NCAAT). Winning 29 consecutive games is no small feat, though, and Fairfield’s average scoring margin (16.7 points) ranks 14th in the nation, clearly placing them in a tier above their regular-season competition. The Stags are one of the most dangerous low-seeded contenders. 

Summary (too long, didn’t read version):

Fairfield, while riding a 29-game win streak, has not played a team rated higher than Vanderbilt, who is a 12 seed seeking Tournament entry through the First Four. A young team making a massive turnaround, freshman 6-1 forward Meghan Anderson will present a tough matchup as a solid defender and the team’s leading scorer. The Stags have a legitimately tough defense with 8 individuals in the top 5% of the nation’s defenders (according to Defensive Rating), and offensively, they’ll shoot many threes with decent efficiency. While small, the opportunity is there for Fairfield (read on to see where) if the Stags are on from three. 

Strengths:

Because of the low strength of schedule, many stats are inflated for Fairfield. For example, the Stags own the 14th-best field goal percentage (46.8%) and the 13th-best opponent field goal percentage (35.6%). But Fairfield has been able to lean on its defense this season (as can be seen in the heat charts above) and ranks 37th in Her Hoops Stats’ Defensive Rating. They’ve allowed only three teams to clear 70 points, while their offense sometimes goes cold (see victories of 62-44, 64-51, 60-46, and most recently against Rider in the MAAC Tournament, 57-51). Fairfield’s best defenders are its two best players – senior 5-6 guard Janelle Brown and freshman 6-1 forward Meghan Anderson.

Something that can carry over regardless of opponent is that Fairfield does an effective job of disrupting offenses, ranking 8th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (16th in allowed assists and 24th in forced turnover rate). Indiana ranks 11th in assist-to-turnover ratio; however, Indiana’s turnover rate (16.8%) is 60th in the country, a potential advantage for Fairfield on the right night. It will be a crucial game for Yarden Garzon, who is second on the team in assists per game and second in turnovers per game, especially given Indiana’s injuries in the frontcourt.

This is not exactly a strength but more of a function of the offense: Fairfield will shoot the three. The Stags rank 14th in the nation in attempted threes per game (26.7) and 81st in three-point percentage (33.3%), and 36% of their points come from threes (34th nationally). Indiana, according to Her Hoops Stats, is only in the 42nd percentile (just below average) in allowed three-point percentage. Each Fairfield starter shoots above 30% from three, and three attempt at least 5 per game (not including Brown, who shoots 45% on 3 attempts per game). The Hoosiers need to account for that.

Weaknesses: 

The obvious weakness is that Fairfield has never attempted what it must do Saturday afternoon, which is play a team ranked higher than No. 61 in Her Hoops Stats’ overall rating (Vanderbilt). Indiana ranks 9th in that metric and will be playing in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Fairfield will come to Bloomington with three underclassmen (two freshmen) in its starting lineup too. 

Fairfield’s offense is not uber dynamic. There’s plenty of red on the heat map above, but the Stags rank 70th in percentage of points scored from two-point range and a dismal 347th in percentage of points scored from the free throw line (205th in FT%). They space the floor well with the threat from three, but smart interior defense, where Indiana ranks most effective defensively, should keep the Stags one dimensional. The challenge is that Indiana’s defense has shown inconsistencies, as the Hoosiers ended the season 152nd in allowed effective field goal percentage. 

Fairfield also ranks 275th in the nation in turnover rate, coughing up the ball on 21.2% of its possessions. This will aid an Indiana defense that ranks 264th in steals per game.