Week 1 Preview: FIU

Prepare for Indiana's Week 1 matchup against the FIU Panthers with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

Aug 29, 2024

Like Curt Cignetti said in his first game-week press conference Monday, the 2024 season is “finally here.” This wait has felt longer than most, as Cignetti and his staff have deconstructed and reconstructed a program that was in crisis when Indiana relieved Tom Allen of his duties and named the former James Madison head coach its own. Not only have they reconstructed it in mere months, but they’ve also injected enthusiasm into it, so much so that Cignetti has drawn external eyes to Indiana games with his talk at Big Ten Media Days and Indiana Basketball games.

Of course, there are an endless number of questions Indiana fans and followers have repeatedly asked themselves and each other (see only several here) with no real way to gain concrete solutions until the ball is kicked. And that’s part of what makes this game so beautiful.

[Bite-Sized Bison’s Projected 2024 Depth Chart]

Lastly, if you haven’t yet seen the Bite-Sized Bison Ultimate Preseason Reading List, make sure you head there to ensure that you haven’t missed a thing before this kickoff.

So let’s get started. First up is FIU.

Observations from Statistical Preview:

So much of the Statistical Preview is currently reliant on 2023 data, so, particularly for Indiana, much of this is already outdated (great start, I know!). But look to the yellow highlights for figures that were specifically updated for Week 1 of the 2024 season, and read on for data points that can show us something about these two teams.
Indiana ESPN SP+ Improvements: The ESPN SP+ model takes a few weeks to begin to resemble how good these teams actually are. However, Indiana has already jumped many spots in the model since the last week of the 2023 season – Overall SP+ up 13, Offensive SP+ up 13, and Defensive SP+ up 19. Indiana also begins the season ranked higher in SP+ than it has since 2021.
FIU Offensive Line Yards/Rush: FIU’s offensive line yards/rush was 4th-to-last in 2023, and it returns four of those five offensive linemen and is expected to start a center who has 30 career snaps (see more below).
FIU Offensive EPA/play & Success in Pass: FIU’s offensive EPA and its passing success rate were certainly not impressive (neither ranking higher than 120th nationally), and on top of this, FIU lost leading WR Kris Mitchell to Notre Dame. For his freshman QB last season, Mitchell caught 64 passes for 1,118 yards and 6 touchdowns. The next-best WR on the team in each of those categories? 32 receptions, 423 yards, 2 TDs. FIU added three WRs in the portal (Nazeviah Burris from Stetson is receiving high praise) and should have more spread-out talent at the top of the WR room, so this area could match the scheme better and eventually improve, just maybe not in Week 1.
FIU Defensive Stats: FIU’s defensive stats suggest there were bright spots on that side, particularly once its back was against the wall and (sometimes) in the run defense game. But the Panthers lost four of their top seven PFF-graded defenders this offseason, and the 62nd-ranked defensive success rate against the pass maintains most of its production in the defensive backfield. New Indiana OC Mike Shanahan and QB Kurtis Rourke might have a day.

Opponent OL Preview

Note: I created this visual to represent what we see on broadcasts, so that we can easily identify the weak spots of each opponent’s OL.

If there was ever a Week 1 OL to play for a new defense rooted in causing havoc with its defensive line, FIU’s OL is the ideal opponent. Most of the snaps at RT, RG, and LG came from 2023 and are expected to serve those positions again, while LT has had many snaps and is a proven commodity. Center, a sophomore, is very fresh, and, as shown in his class-specific stats, does show at least a bit of promise in the future. But for a defense led by the highest-paid assistant in Indiana Football history and more money than ever invested into the Indiana DL staff, this should be like charging through a wall of Jell-O.

There is real value in a unit, though, and all of these linemen have played together before. There is absolutely a possibility for improvement, but with the entire 2023 season on paper, the only perceived strength of this FIU OL is running to the left.

If I’m an Indiana fan, I really want to see this defensive line tear up the FIU OL, especially on the edges.

Matchups to Watch

Indiana’s DBs vs. FIU’s Spread

FIU’s strategy against Indiana is likely going to be a pass-first focus in the Spread concept. In 2023, QB Keyone Jenkins was 5th in the C-USA in dropbacks, while FIU placed four WRs in the conference’s top-10 in route percentage (percent of snaps where they ran a route). FIU also finished 113th in rushing attempts last season. The Panthers bolstered their WR room with transfers and should be a bit more effective in a Spread with widespread talent rather than the concentrated talent of Kris Mitchell, but that doesn’t address the OL, which forced Jenkins to rank 10th nationally in pressure-to-sack percentage (28.8%). With this in mind, keep an eye on FIU WRs Dean Patterson (2nd-leading WR in 2023), Nazeviah Burris (Stetson transfer), Desna Washington (former No. 15 overall JUCO transfer), Juju Lewis (former Georgia Tech WR and top-1,000 2022 recruit), and Eric Rivers (3rd-leading WR).

This will be a good test for Indiana’s secondary, which has its question marks but seems fairly deep in talent. The Rover will most likely need to work more in coverage than it will in future matchups, which might determine who gets the bulk of the snaps there, and CBs, which I’ve been a bit skeptical of heading into the season, will be on islands without safety help. A pass rush from the DL would be helpful, and I’d anticipate that to be the focus for the defense.

Indiana Passing Attack vs. FIU DBs

FIU returns all of its 5 leading coverage DBs from 2023, who each graded between 28th and 39th in coverage in the C-USA, according to PFF. Not the greatest but consistently above average. I’m curious to see if new Indiana OC Mike Shanahan shows off some things early – FIU ranked 62nd in passing success rate allowed – before getting into the rushing game later on, or if Indiana rides the rushing attack from the start.

Indiana’s OL vs. FIU Pass-Rush

The Panthers aren’t world-burners on the DL. In fact, their strongest defensive playmakers are in the defensive backfield. But they will often line up three DEs and one nose tackle along the DL, meaning they’ll be looking to get downhill against the Indiana OL. Former Indiana DL Jeramy Passmore will be leading this charge for the Panthers in 2024 as the most versatile DL, with promising Bethune-Cookman transfer DE Eddie Walls looking to get to the QB.

This is more about the Indiana OL, though. How does that interior hold up with the tackles preoccupied with DEs on the edges? I’d expect them to be fine this week, but it will give us a glimpse into what exists in that area of the offense.

Witt’s Wagers

Ben Wittenstein has created sports betting content during the last five years for various media outlets, including Stadium, Bleav Network, BetMGM, and Bet QL. He graduated from IU with a journalism degree in 2017 and spent four years broadcasting IUFB games on top of Memorial Stadium’s press box (shoutout WIUX). He will be providing betting tips for BSB this season, and you can find him on Twitter at @BenWittenstein, where you can ask betting questions about IU and beyond.

Indiana -21.5

The vibes couldn’t be higher for IU football this season, so it only seems appropriate to latch on and enjoy the ride.

That’s right, we’re laying the 21.5 points with IU football. Trust me, it felt strange to type that out, but this isn’t your older brother’s IU football team.

There are plenty of reasons to be excited about the 2024 Hoosiers, and what stands out to me in Week 1 is the lack of talent on FIU’s offensive line. Taylor did a masterful job highlighting the weaknesses in FIU’s trenches, particularly its poor offensive success rate in 2023 and the loss of key playmakers. The longer this game goes on, the more IU’s talent up front and on defense will wear down the Panthers’ offense. And if IU’s run defense resembles James Madison’s run defense from 2023, FIU could be in for a LONG day of 3-and-outs.

Plus, in games like this, IU has typically done a good job of covering the spread (let’s just forget last year’s Akron game, where they won by two in overtime while being favored by 16.5). In the last five years, the Hoosiers are 7-2 against the spread when favored by double digits. Typically, these wins have come against smaller teams early in the season, which, lucky for us, this is!

Given the sheer talent gap, FIU’s offensive struggles, and the overall good vibes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see IU break the 40-point mark in this game and easily cover the -21.5 spread.