Week 10: Ode to Cam Camper
Summarizing an unexpected season from the transfer WR
Cam Camper’s ACL injury is a Dam Damper. The JUCO transfer out of Athens, Texas will end his season with 46 catches, 569 yards, and 2 touchdowns – all in 7 games. And with Camper’s departure from the 2022 offense, it appears the bottom will drop out beneath Walt Bell and the Indiana offense, already plagued by an awful offensive line and a limited playbook.
In many ways, Camper was the lone bright spot in this offense. The Hoosiers’ PFF offensive grade has dropped to 121st in the country, and among offensive players with at least 200 snaps, Camper grades second on the team (behind Josh Henderson).
He exploded on the scene with his best game of the year, catching 11 passes for 156 yards against Illinois, which was a huge contribution to Indiana’s most significant win of the season. He followed that performance shortly after with a 10-catch game against Cincinnati and, for a while, led the nation in targets (now 10th with 84 targets). It was clear early in the year that Camper and DJ Matthews were going to be the focal points of the Hoosier offensive identity.
Fast-forward to Week 10 now, and the offensive line has lost its position coach, Matthews missed two games and is slow getting back, Shaun Shivers is ineffective, and Tom Allen is non-committal about Connor Bazelak at quarterback.
Few things have worked out on that side of the ball for Indiana, but Cam Camper has always been one thing that did.
Cam Camper was good, but the IU offense hurt him
That offensive deterioration affected Camper in recent weeks too. Teams, particularly Michigan, recognized that they could grind the Indiana offense to a halt by simply making Camper’s life difficult. Against Michigan, Camper caught just 2 passes on 8 targets. In his last two games, he caught 11-of-14 targets, but his average depth of target plummeted from at least 10 yards every game this year to 9.0 against Maryland and 7.1 against Rutgers. All teams needed to do was contain Camper.
Camper was the second-most targeted receiver in the Big Ten, at 12 targets per game. However, among the 43 Big Ten receivers to be targeted at least 20 times this year, Camper ranks 27th in reception percentage (catching 46 of his 84 targets). IU doesn’t have a single receiver in the top-25 of that group.
When Connor Bazelak threw to Camper, he recorded just a 74.0 quarterback rating, which, for Camper, is 33rd out of 43 wide receivers with at least 20 targets in the Big Ten. He was the definition of “F**k it, Cam’s down there somewhere.”
How Camper himself wasn’t enough
There’s no denying Camper’s talent and the impact he had on the Indiana offense (see above). However, when compared with the top targeted receivers in the conference, he failed to measure up in a lot of ways – ways that were a product of his performance, rather than positions Indiana put him in.
Primarily, Camper’s contested catch rate (the number of contested catches he made when targeted) was too low. According to PFF, Camper caught just 8 of 21 contested targets. That’s a 38.1% contested catch rate, which rates 9th among the top-10 most targeted receivers in the conference. Much can go into this, such as his 3rd-worst passer rating when targeted – a QB has to put the ball in the correct place – but much like running backs needing to create their own space, receivers need to make low-probability catches as well. The reason this is of concern is because watching him on the field, it’s clear that he can be physical and make strong catches. It just needs to be more consistent to consider Camper one of the best in the conference.
Compared to the same group of Big Ten receivers, Camper suffered a problem with drops too. He ranked second-worst in drop percentage, tied for the most drops with 4.
Note: You don’t want to be high on this chart. Looking at Camper’s rankings, “2” means second in the group in targets, and “9” means ninth in the group in reception rate.
Source: Pro Football Focus
Largely, simply looking at the data to compare the receivers, it’s tough to see what Camper offers that could separate him from the best in the conference, other than volume. Some of the wideouts could forced missed tackles (Isaiah Williams, Malik Washington, Parker Washington); some can catch the ball downfield (Trey Palmer, Keon Coleman, Marvin Harrison Jr.); some can rack up YAC (Emeka Egbuka, Williams, Parker Washington); some catch touchdowns (Harrison Jr. and Charlie Jones); and some simply catch every pass thrown their way (Williams, Jones, Parker Washington).
Camper wasn’t a standout in any of those categories, which is fine! He wasn’t expected to be a top-10 targeted Big Ten receiver at all this year, and much of what limited him could have been the ineptitude of the Indiana offense. However, these skillsets are what make the top receivers in the conference so difficult to contain, something teams were able to do with Camper at times this year.
Comparing Camper to recent IU great WRs (since 2015)
To gauge exactly how productive Cam Camper’s season has been through seven games, it would be helpful to compare him to previous Indiana lead receivers. One quick fact about Camper’s season that is immediately noticeable is that he had already recorded more receiving yards than any Hoosier in 2021.
Note: The primary reason for recency on this table is because PFF only grades from 2014 on, and the PFF Offensive Grade was significant to this table.
The first note that might jump out to a viewer when comparing Camper to previous receivers is his target share compared to production. This goes hand-in-hand with what I had discussed above, in that Camper could have done more with the targets he received but also that Indiana could have done more in offering him better looks, schematically and from a passing standpoint.
But Camper’s season, as it is paced through seven games most closely represents Simmie Cobbs’ 2017 season, and that’s nothing to scoff at when considering the transfer wideouts that have come through Indiana recently.
How does Indiana replace Camper?
There have been 250 passes in Indiana’s offense this year, and 24% of them have targeted Camper. So where do those targets go now?
Well, I wrote last week about Indiana’s running backs in the passing game. They’ve been successful and might eat some of the target share, particularly because completing passes to running backs is the easiest thing to do for an offense that shouldn’t be on the field in the first place. All three running backs – Shaun Shivers, Josh Henderson, and Jaylin Lucas – will likely be involved in that.
This is significant because, after Camper, Indiana’s only wide receiver graded inside the top-25 (among WRs with at least 20 targets) is DJ Matthews (24th), so Indiana must need him to be 100% healthy after the bye week.
But that doesn’t solve the question about who will play out wide now that Camper is done. Andison Coby is graded as the worst wideout in the Big Ten with at least 20 targets, but he will likely see increased playing time because he’s the next man up, in terms of snap counts out wide. Donaven McCulley (graded 33rd out of 43) will certainly see more playing time. Those two have combined to catch just 28 of their 60 targets.
AJ Barner is not the answer either. Expand the pool of qualifying players from just wide receivers with at least 20 targets to wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 targets, and Barner ranks 54th out of 57 in PFF’s Offensive Grade. His 0.53 yards per route run is 7th worst in the country.
What seems to be the best move for Indiana is to move Emery Simmons out wide, as I’ve written about twice already. That’s where he played during his entire tenure at North Carolina, which you can read about in previous BSBs, but even then, Simmons is graded 31st out of 43 Big Ten wideouts with at least 20 targets.
Indiana is going to need someone to play outside of themselves to replace Camper, and with Penn State and Michigan being two of the final four opponents left, that likely won’t happen.
Outside of Data
Cam Camper has been one of the most exciting figures in IU Football recently, simply because he was so unexpected. His skillset is obvious, in that his 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame can play outside of itself as a physical presence inside and out. He finds space in a short amount of time and is a balanced target within a passing game, which explains why Bazelak could lean so heavily on him throughout the season.
I hope he makes a recovery soon and can play within a serious offense before the end of his career so that maybe he can be given the opportunity to prove if he is one of the best receivers in the conference.