Bye Week: Rising/Falling Stock within the Hoosiers
Linebackers, running backs, receivers, linemen: Who is rising, and who is falling?
Things are bleak. Indiana showed a nice burst in the first quarter against Rutgers to jump to a 14-0 lead Saturday, but the defense — Tom Allen’s storied defense — couldn’t hold off Rutgers and their new offensive coordinator for the win. So Indiana goes into the bye week at 3-5 with five consecutive losses and, according to ESPN SP+, a 43% chance to lose the last four games.
The bye week is often a time of reflection both within and outside of the program, so that’s what we will do here at Bite-Sized Bison. Whose stock is rising, and whose stock is falling? (I mostly took looks at specific players to avoid repetition from previous newsletters and from what’s already being discussed. I have nothing against these players personally, just analyzing the data.)
Rising Stock
There are some bright spots!
Mike Katic
There has been very little positive discussion about the offensive line here on Bite-Sized Bison; however, there has been individual growth, such as Kahlil Benson and Josh Sales earning their first starts at right guard and right tackle, respectively, against Rutgers. But Mike Katic has quietly developed into the best lineman on the team this season.
Coming into the season, Luke Haggard was fully expected to be the best lineman, and he graded well in the non-conference schedule. The Big Ten schedule has shredded Haggard at left tackle, though, particularly Michigan, when he allowed 7 (!) QB pressures (2 sacks, 3 QB hits, and 2 hurries). In the last five weeks, he has allowed at least 2 QB pressures in each game.
Katic’s worst game in pass blocking was against Cincinnati, when he allowed 4 QB pressures. He was moved to center the next week and, in the four games since, has allowed just 3 pressures. His run-blocking grades via PFF are dismal, like the rest of the line, but he has consistently posted above-average pass-blocking grades this season.
While this is an extremely small victory in terms of the offensive line, it does show that there could possibly be a role for Katic, who will be a redshirt senior in 2023, on the interior of the line next season.
Jaylin Lucas
Jaylin Lucas is extremely fast. He was featured in Bite-Sized Bison recently, when his PFF Elusiveness Rating was the second-best in the country. The nation is beginning to take notice after his kickoff return touchdown at Rutgers.
He also broke off his first long play from scrimmage, with a 24-yard reception Saturday. It was refreshing for Indiana fans to see after Lucas was limited to just 5 total scrimmage yards on 8 touches versus Maryland. Using Lucas hasn’t proven to be an easy task for Indiana. His average depth of target is behind the line of scrimmage, and he’s running behind the 11th-worst graded run-blocking offensive line in the country. Yet, he averages 5.1 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception, largely because each play he’s used is designed specifically for him. This can make it difficult to go to Lucas in bulk.
An additional stock I’d buy on this Indiana team is the running backs in the passing game. All three Indiana running backs — Lucas, Shaun Shivers, and Josh Henderson — are graded by PFF as top-10 Big Ten receiving running backs who have recorded at least 10 targets. Lucas leads the group at third in the conference (13th in the nation), but he’s only been used on 2% of Indiana’s passing plays this year.
Note: To qualify, running backs must have been targeted at least 10 times this season. (Source: Pro Football Focus)
He earned the most touches on the offense against Rutgers, with 9, and averaged 7.3 yards on each touch. Given the current state of Indiana’s offense, Walt Bell and the Hoosiers should continue to find creative ways to get the ball in his hands, but the only offensive play-caller who’s proven to do that effectively with “gadget players” in Bloomington recently was Kalen DeBoer in 2019 with Whop Philyor, who was really more of a slot receiver than a gadget player.
Indiana Linebackers
Of Indiana’s top seven defensive grades this season, four of them are linebackers, and of the 35 Big Ten linebackers to record at least 200 defensive snaps in 2022, three Hoosiers are graded in the top-11 — Aaron Casey (5th), Cam Jones (6th), and Bradley Jennings Jr. (11th).
Since Tom Allen arrived in 2016, the Hoosiers have had strong linebacking contributors, and to play in the Big Ten, a team’s linebacking play must be high. That’s been one of Indiana’s saving graces this season, thanks to Jones, Casey, Jennings, and Matt Holht.
Cam Jones, in that same group of Big Ten linebackers mentioned above, ranks 10th in tackles and 9th in stops (plays stopped by a player’s individual effort) and owns the second-best rush defense grade. Those numbers would be great even if he hadn’t missed three games this season. If he hadn’t missed the time he’s missed, the conference would most likely be referring to him as the best linebacker in the Big Ten.
While the defense misses Jones, the reason that his loss has not been catastrophic is because of Aaron Casey, who is the most productive linebacker in the conference. He leads the Big Ten in tackles, QB pressures, forced fumbles, and owns the highest pass rushing grade and the third highest pass rush win percentage. He’s also third in stops, with 30. He is one of eight linebackers to play at least 400 snaps so far this season. Because of this, he’s been the glue of the defense, and these numbers only confirm what the eyes of Indiana fans have seen.
Bradley Jennings Jr. is in the middle of the best season of his career. In most statistical categories (tackles, stops, QB pressures, etc.), he hovers around the 15th rank in the conference. But his greatest improvement is in coverage. Jennings leads the conference with 4 pass break-ups and is 9th in reception percentage. The only other season where he played as many snaps as he has this season (304) was with Miami in 2020 (468), and he posted a failing defensive grade (45.1). Now, he’s graded at 71.1.
Matt Holht is going to be discussed quite a bit in the next three years. The redshirt freshman has already found his way onto the field and has played 107 snaps. As many as 51 Big Ten linebackers have played at least 100 snaps, and Holht is graded at No. 23. Most importantly, for a young linebacker, his snaps-per-stop is the best on the team — Holht (10.7), Jones (13.0), Casey (14.3), and Jennings (19).
Stock Dropping
In an effort to avoid repetition, I will not be focusing on the offensive line and secondary positions as whole groups. I’ve written about them thoroughly in past BSBs. Those can be found at the links below.
Indiana defensive line pass rush
If the pass rush is not coming from Aaron Casey in 2022, there is no pass rush. The Hoosiers are one Dasan McCullough away from being as bad as it could possibly get in pass rush along the defensive line.
Alfred Bryant, who looked promising to start the season, has rushed on the 4th-most snaps in the Big Ten (204) but has only touched the quarterback 5 times (1 sack, 4 QB hits). His pass rush efficiency ranks 40th among edge rushers in the Big Ten, and his win percentage (percentage of wins vs. blocking on pass plays) is 51st. Beau Robbins has been even less effective, rushing the passer on 147 snaps and touching the QB just once. His pass rush efficiency is 80th in the conference, and his win percentage is 94th.
Among the 62 qualifying Big Ten defensive tackles, Demarcus Elliott leads Indiana in win percentage, ranked 27th in the conference, followed by Patrick Lucas Jr. (52nd), JH Tevis (55th), LeDarrius Cox (56th), and Sio Nofoagatoto’a (61st). There essentially is no interior pass rush.
What is known to Indiana fans and is backed up by data is that Dasan McCullough is the only hope Indiana has for a pass rush from its defensive line. However, since his skillset is so versatile, he only rushes on 67% of the passing snaps he plays. He has even covered the slot receiver on 28 snaps! In pass rush efficiency, McCullough ranks 12th in the conference among edge rushers (really good!), but in win percentage, he ranks 48th (not so good!). The talent is undoubtedly there with McCullough though, as he’s pressured the quarterback 15 times on 107 pass rush attempts. It just depends on what role he will play throughout his career at Indiana and how the Hoosiers can develop him to fit that role.
Shaun Shivers
It’s fairly clear that Shaun Shivers should not be the starting running back on this team. Like Connor Bazelak, Shivers hasn’t exactly gotten help from the offensive line he transferred to run behind, but unlike Bazelak, there is a consistent and direct comparison to be made in the backfield, via Josh Henderson.
Despite the 11th-worst run-blocking line in the country, Henderson has managed the 12th-best rushing grade in the Big Ten among running backs with at least 40 carries. Shivers is 20th.
But again, like Bazelak, Shivers has received the raw end of a transfer deal, thanks to the offensive line. Throughout Shivers’ entire career, he has primarily rushed in zone running schemes, where he is tasked to find the open hole in the offensive line, and, being at Auburn, those holes would be there more times than not. At Auburn, he ran 107 attempts into zone running schemes, as opposed to 71 gap running schemes, where the back hits the designed hole. In 2022, his carries have leaned gap (57 gap to 46 zone), but Henderson’s carries have leaned zone (31 zone to 23 gap). This means, as Indiana fans have watched all season, that Shivers is running head-first into a brick wall where a hole should be but is not supported by good scheme or effective blockers.
This is where running back creativity comes into play. The primary reason for the difference between Shivers and Henderson is that Henderson can create his own space. He certainly isn’t the best in the conference at this, but he ranks 16th in the Big Ten in yards after contact per attempt (2.91) and is rated sixth in the conference in PFF’s Elusiveness Rating. Of the 27 qualifying running backs, Shivers ranks 27th in yards after contact per attempt (2.08) and 23rd in elusiveness.
Note: To qualify, running backs must have at least 40 carries. (Source: Pro Football Focus)
The table below creates a good comparison between this 2022 running back duo and running backs who have been used on at least 10% of Indiana’s plays in the past. Shivers’ PFF offensive grade is as low as Indiana has seen since PFF tracked the data, and his usage rate, now at 21% of Indiana’s plays is dropping to levels only seen in 2021 (when IU couldn’t run the ball, again) and 2017 (when IU just didn’t have RB talent).
Notes:
Usage = percentage of the team’s plays the RB is used
PPA = predicted points added
What does the RB do when he touches the ball? This can be tough for high-volume backs to maintain. Scores also influence this stat quite a bit.
Pro Football Focus offensive grade focuses on the RB’s overall play on each snap he’s in, regardless of whether he touches the ball.
Source: CollegeFootballData.com and Pro Football Focus
Indiana slot receivers
I genuinely don’t know what Indiana is doing here. The Hoosiers’ primary slot receivers are DJ Matthews and Emery Simmons. It’s pretty clear that Matthews is not 100% health-wise, so that’s taken into account, but I remain baffled by the Hoosiers’ use of Simmons.
In his three years at North Carolina, Simmons played 0.0%, 0.6%, and 3.5% of his snaps at slot. In 2022, he has played 95.4% of his snaps at slot. He leads all Big Ten wide receivers in snaps at slot (by 49!). It would be understandable if Indiana placed Simmons there temporarily while Matthews was injured, but he played all but one snap at slot when Matthews was healthy to start the season. He’s accumulated 8 snaps out wide in the last four weeks, and his frame and skillset are capable of doing so. It should be noted that his blocking skills make him an attractive slot receiver for blocking in designed screens.
The trio of Andison Coby, Javon Swinton, and Donaven McCulley have handled the wide snaps, opposite Cam Camper, and this might be the answer. Coby played all 19 of his passing snaps at Tennessee out wide, and McCulley was passing last year. Swinton actually played most of his snaps at slot in 2021 but has shown a versatility to play both. The three have combined for 69 slot reps this year in multi-receiver sets, but that’s nothing compared to Simmons’ 270. Indiana more than likely trusts Simmons at slot more than the others, but this is limiting the improving wideout.
Simmons has been used on 8% of Indiana’s offensive plays, second to only Cam Camper among non-RB weapons, and he’s been effective, leading the team in predicted points added, with 0.472. He grades head-and-shoulders above the three receivers mentioned above, but there’s no doubt that Indiana would choose a healthy Matthews over Simmons in the slot. And Indiana has pigeon-holed its slot receivers more than any other team in the conference. Simmons and Matthews have both played more than 95% of their snaps at slot. Only Maryland’s Rakim Jarrett has played more than 90% at slot, and just five others have played more than 80% at slot. This has dropped Simmons’ receiving snaps down from 54, 45, and 54 in Weeks 4-6 to 30 and 28 in the last two weeks since Matthews returned. He — the receiver who is second on the team in first-down receptions (16) — was targeted just 3 times against Rutgers.
So Indiana has three options as Matthews improves through the bye:
It uses Simmons less and keeps him as No. 2 slot receiver behind Matthews, as it started the season.
It keeps Simmons on the field more by using more four-receiver sets.
It moves Simmons outside to maintain his previous receiving snaps.
Based on what we’ve seen in the last two weeks, it appears Indiana is going with Option 1. If that’s the case, the IU slot receiver position likely takes a step back until Matthews is back to 100%.