Week 2 Preview: Kennesaw State

Prepare for Indiana's Week 1 matchup against the Kennesaw State Owls with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

A lot of Indiana fans are a bit more uneasy than perhaps they were going into Week 2 of the 2024 season. CrimsonCast made a great point in their recap episode regarding the juxtaposition of expectations with the order in which plays occurred. I also wrote a bit in last weekend’s recap comparing Week 1 2024 to Week 1 2025.

Given the small sample size, it seems like Indiana is in a statistical holding period, especially given the fact that it ran 92 plays on offense and limited Old Dominion to 46 on defense. Not converting on their high-value plays but remaining consistent enough to dominate an opponent will place you near where Indiana is on the below chart, though being closer to the origin would be optimal.

With that said, given that high-leverage opponents (Illinois and Iowa) await after the non-conference schedule, Indiana has something to prove this week, and Kennesaw State, ranked No. 125 in ESPN SP+ while also nearly defeating Power 4 Wake Forest last week, should provide even less resistance than ODU (now ranked No. 96 in SP+).

In this preview:

• Opponent Overview

• Indiana SP+ Progress

• Advanced Stat Preview

• QB Profiles

• KSU OL Preview

• KSU Key Contributors

• What BSB is Watching For

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Opponent Overview

Kennesaw State has climbed the ranks of college football at warp speed, going from playing its first games in 2015 at the FCS level to FBS in 2024, all under the leadership of Brian Bohannon, who led KSU to a 12-2 season in just its third year and four 10+ win seasons in the Big South. Bohannon is now on Georgia Tech’s staff after KSU parted ways following a 2-win season in the Owls’ inaugural FBS season.

Now, with an offensive coordinator (Mitch Militello) developed by Josh Heupel (4 years at Tennessee, 3 at UCF) and a defensive coordinator (Marc Mattioli) developed by Derek Mason (3 years at Stanford, 6 at Vanderbilt), KSU head coach Jerry Mack is kicking off his second head coaching stint in the college ranks. Much like KSU’s program, Mack has climbed the coaching ranks quickly, as he was the OC at UAPB at 30 years old in 2010 and was one of the youngest Division I head coaches in 2014 — at North Carolina Central. He was named MEAC Coach of the Year and HBCU Coach of the Year in 2016, following a 10-3 season and a 10-9 loss to Grambling State in the Celebration Bowl. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel brought him onto his Tennessee staff for three seasons (2021-23) before a season in the NFL and now the head coach of a program looking to jumpstart its time in the FBS.

This is not a program that has been dangerous for FBS opponents in the last decade. It pushed Kent State to OT in an eventual 2019 loss, but KSU’s two wins over Liberty and FIU last season were its first two FBS victories. It finished the 2024 season ranked No. 132 of 134 in the ESPN SP+ ratings. However, the Owls, with their new coaching staff, brought in 30+ transfers this offseason — several being cast-offs from quality programs like Florida, Miami (FL), Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Purdue, UCF, Western Kentucky, South Florida, Memphis, Fresno State, and others. The talent floor is rising, and KSU is coming off of one of its better FBS performances, nearly defeating Wake Forest in a 10-9 game, if it weren’t for a missed field goal and extra point.

It’s hard to believe the team on the left of the graphic above nearly defeated the team on the right. Analytics agree, as Wake Forest had an 86.5% postgame win expectancy, according to ESPN SP+), meaning Wake Forest (No. 94 in SP+) should’ve won decisively. Indiana needs to take care of business in this one.

Indiana SP+ Progress

Note: Each week indicates Indiana’s ranking after the week’s game. For example, Indiana is in the 73rd percentile after its game versus Old Dominion in Week 1.

Notes on SP+ Progression:

• Indiana fell 16 spots in SP+ this week, representing one of its larger single-week changes.

• The change for Indiana is largely due to its offensive rating, which fell from 30th nationally to 50th.

• IU now sits behind both Illinois (No. 21) and Iowa (No. 35) in this metric.

• ODU jumped 7 spots after its loss to Indiana and is now ranked 96th. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Monarchs, as they play Virginia Tech in Week 3 and could really make some noise. They are ranked 82nd in ESPN FPI currently — 1 spot behind UCLA, 3 behind Purdue, and 7 behind Northwestern. They’re also within 10 of the Sun Belt leader. That was a good team that isn’t, in my opinion, weighed correctly in these algorithms (at the moment!).

Advanced Stat Preview

Some Observations: