Week 5: On Indiana ahead of Nebraska
Week 5: On Indiana ahead of Nebraska
Indiana's secondary, Nebraska's defense and deep threat, running the ball, converting on early downs
The season has not gone as hoped for Nebraska. Scott Frost is already out, and losses to Northwestern and Georgia Southern left the Cornhuskers entirely uncompetitive against Oklahoma. Yet, 1-3 Nebraska has a 63% chance to defeat 3-1 Indiana, according to ESPN SP+.
Indiana is hoping to play a full 60 minutes of football that stretches what it flashed at Cincinnati across an entire game. Even though it is not the favorite, this game is one of the most winnable games left on Indiana’s schedule, as the Hoosiers scrape for a path to six wins.
Indiana’s secondary woes
To encapsulate the first quarter of the season for Indiana’s secondary, which is graded as the 116th-best coverage team in the nation by PFF, let’s use Tiawan Mullen as a test case. Mullen has not been what we’ve come to expect from the All-American cornerback.
In most obvious terms, Mullen has shown regression in his overall PFF defensive grade, dropping from 80.8 in 2019 and 75.9 in 2020 to 61.1 in 2021 and 66.2 in 2022. Part of this might simply be the sheer volume of opportunities he’s gotten this year. Teams seem to be fairly comfortable throwing his direction, as he averaged 2.7 targets per game in his first two seasons and is averaging 5 targets per game already this year. On those 20 targets, he’s allowed 13 receptions and four touchdowns (he allowed four touchdowns total his first two seasons).
But Mullen is not alone. Every member of the Indiana secondary — save for Noah Pierre, who seems to be developing into a good contributor — has regressed from previous high-volume seasons. All of Bryant Fitzgerald, Devon Matthews, Bryant Fitzgerald, and Josh Sanguinetti have seen dips in their PFF defensive grades, particularly since those 2019 and 2020 seasons.
This is a major concern, considering issues Indiana fans and media were expecting to see have, in fact, manifested — weak offensive line, no rushing game, few reliable receivers, crucial mistakes in big-play scenarios. Seeing a group of veteran defensive backs, who have long been improvements on IU secondaries of the past, get smoked on opponents’ ways to gaining 48% of available yards is disheartening.
A deep threat in Lincoln
With that in mind, Nebraska has a deep threat option.
Of the four units — Indiana’s offense and defense, Nebraska’s offense and defense — Nebraska’s defense is most favored by ESPN SP+, ranked at 46th in the nation. It gains 46% of available yards, and in terms of raw stats, it’s fairly middle-of-the-road in the Big Ten so far, earning 451 yards per game.
Much to Indiana fans’ chagrin, Nebraska QB Casey Thompson is statistically one of the best deep-ball passers in the Big Ten. He throws 20 or more yards downfield on 17% of his passes and completes them at a 50% clip. His 10 deep completions are tied for the most in the conference, and his PFF grade on deep balls is 91.8, third in the Big Ten.
Much of this success is due to LSU-transfer wideout Trey Palmer, who is having a career year, leading the team with 28 receptions for 323 yards and one touchdown. Four of those receptions, 122 of those yards, and his touchdown have all come on passes 20 or more yards downfield. He is third in the conference in deep targets, with nine, representing 25% of his target share. Nobody else on the team has more than four deep targets.
Somewhat baffling about Nebraska’s passing game is that Thompson is finding success with the 99th-best pass blocking offensive line, according to PFF. Nebraska has allowed the most sacks in the Big Ten, with 11, and Thompson has been pressured on 31% of his dropbacks. For comparison, Bazelak has been pressured on 33% of his dropbacks and has been sacked 9 times.
Nebraska’s defense is…not good.
Do you remember the 2015 Indiana Hoosier defense? Of course you do. Well, Nebraska, through four weeks of the 2022 season, allows more yards per game (514) than that 2015 Hoosier defense (509). It ranks 127th in the nation in that category.
Brian Fremeau documents a handy statistic called available yards, which is the amount of yards gained of the yards available between starting field position of each drive and the end zone. Nebraska’s defense allows teams to pick up 69% of those yards, good for 128th in the country. The Cornhuskers are dead last in the conference in sacks (4.0), tackles for loss (14.0), interceptions (2), opponent third-down conversion rate (52%), opponent first downs per game (27), and all of scoring, rushing, passing, and total defense.
I could pile on more statistics, but every defense has something that an offense must gameplan for. For Nebraska, PFF believes that is the Cornhuskers pass rush, which is graded at 26th in the nation despite its lack of statistical support. Garrett Nelson, who had 11.5 TFLs and 5.0 sacks in 2021, has the 4th-highest pass rush grade of any Big Ten defender with at least 75 pass rushing snaps. Ochaun Mathis, who had 12.5 TFLs and 8.0 sacks for TCU in 2020, has the 8th-best grade in that group. Both combine for 21 pressures and 14 QB hurries.
Nelson will be lined up over whoever Indiana starts at right tackle (Parker Hanna or Josh Sales), and Mathis will be lined up between left tackle (Luke Haggard) and left guard (Mike Katic). If you read BSB last weekend, you’ll know that Connor Bazelak was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks, and Hanna, in particular, is graded as one of the worst offensive linemen in the conference.
None of the Nebraska pass rushers are particularly good at rush defense, though, so a successful running attack could neutralize the pass rush threat. That brings us to the next point.
Shaun Shivers/Josh Henderson game?
Could this week be the week Shivers and Henderson gain some space and cut through a defense? Indiana has given no reason to believe that is the case, but Nebraska allows 233 rushing yards per game and is graded 111th in rush defense by PFF. The Cornhuskers have allowed 26 rushes of 10 or more yards, while Indiana has accrued 16 (four per game seems like a lot, honestly).
In Nebraska’s three losses, they allowed a total of 311 yards and seven touchdowns on just 49 carries toward the three gaps between the left guard’s right shoulder and the right tackle’s left shoulder. That would mean Indiana would need to run toward center Caleb Murphy and right guards Tim Weaver and Kahlil Benson. To the right is where Indiana has run the most, but no statistic can explain which direction Indiana is successful at rushing the ball.
The Hoosiers currently rank 119th out of 131 FBS teams in pass blocking, according to PFF, and there are few signs of any leveling off.
If it finds production, watch for Indiana to try to gain run blocking momentum with some runs against Nebraska early and counter that Nebraska pass rush. If it dies early, Connor Bazelak’s arm will need to put the team on its back again.
Early Downs and Red Zone Offense
Walt Bell touched on something during Monday’s press conference that I mentioned in Sunday’s BSB:
If you read Sunday’s BSB, you would’ve read about Indiana’s struggles on second down. In review:
“...when Cincinnati was struggling on offense in the second half, 12 of Indiana’s 19 second downs required 10 or more yards to go, including 6 of 7 in the fourth quarter. Overall against Cincinnati, Indiana averaged 9.2 yards to go on its second downs and gained 4.3 yards, less than its general 4.8 yards per play.”
This is largely a result of needing to pass on first down because Indiana is, essentially, a one-dimensional team, evidenced by Bazelak leading the nation in pass attempts per game (50). It applies loads of pressure on Bazelak and his receivers to perform on every play.
This will be significant because, even though Nebraska allows its opponents to convert on third down more than any team in the Big Ten, it still forces its opponents into the fourth-most third downs in the conference.
As far as converting in the red zone, Nebraska will quickly allow a team to tie off any loose ends. The Cornhuskers allow the third-highest red zone score percentage, allowing scores on 15-of-18 appearances. Tying into the previous note about Shivers and Henderson, 8 of the 12 conference-high red zone touchdowns have come from rushing.