Week 5 Recap: Maryland & Walt Bell

Recapping a tough loss to Maryland and a personnel change at OC

Walt Bell – the fourth offensive coordinator of Tom Allen’s 6.5 years as head coach at Indiana – is now out, and Rod Carey steps in as the fifth. Indiana’s 2023 offense has been putrid, for sure, and Bell shares obvious blame for that, but at this point, it seems Tom Allen has failed to identify and create an environment conducive to an offensive coordinator’s success in Bloomington. I’d be shocked if Rod Carey (who does not have an interim title) transcends this pattern, especially given his involvement already. 

Related to the graphic above: it’s obviously crucial to note that Indiana consistently plays one of the toughest schedules in the nation, given the existence of the Big Ten East, so much so that the most celebrated offense of the Tom Allen Era was average in comparison to the rest of the FBS, in terms of EPA/play. The stark contrast between Indiana’s offenses and the national average is the point, combined with the offensive success of the Kevin Wilson Era. And even worse, during the recent boom in Power 5 offenses since 2021, Indiana’s offense has been at its worst in recent memory. 

And after the famed 2020 season, Indiana has a total point differential of -431 against FBS opponents (27 games), meaning against FBS opponents, Indiana loses by an average of 16 points. 

While I don’t necessarily disagree with letting go of Bell, it’s difficult to feel confident that this personnel move will advance this team forward, given that the offensive line is what it is, two redshirt freshmen QBs lose their QBs coach, and — on the defensive side — Indiana allows an opponent offensive success rate of 44.7%, which ranks 109th in the nation and second to Illinois for worst in the conference. It’s like rearranging the furniture in a burning house.

Thanks to Punt John Punt for creating this chart (tweets no longer embed on Substack):

I’ll have more on Rod Carey later this week.

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Notable Snap Counts

• Cam Camper played 5 snaps.

• You might notice Josh Sales’ 17 snaps is more than the number of snaps Kahlil Benson missed (9). That’s because, according to PFF, Sales served in a TE alignment for 8 snaps (likely as an additional OL, not a TE). I didn’t catch this on the broadcast.

• Jordan Grier saw a bump in playing time with the injury status of Louis Moore. He posted a good Defensive Grade (69.4).

• Andison Coby played more snaps (45) than he had in the previous four games (39).

• Indiana played 6 TEs.

Notable Stats

• Indiana ranks 100th in the nation in touchdown rate from the red zone (53%).

• Indiana’s 15.8 points per game against FBS opponents ranks 123rd in the nation, and its 28.8 points allowed per game against FBS opponents ranks 73rd. 

• Indiana’s net success rate is not good.

• It’s opponent-adjusted EPA/play is also not good.

• This game was a true blowout. According to GameOnPaper.com, the following metrics are rated against all FBS v. FBS games played in 2022: Maryland’s 0.30 EPA/play (91st percentile), Maryland’s 8.42 yards/play (95th percentile), Maryland’s 0.45 EPA/dropback (88th percentile), Maryland’s 10.06 yards/dropback (84th percentile), Maryland’s 14% explosive play rate (94th percentile), Maryland’s 60% redzone success rate (84th percentile), Indiana’s 4.12 yards per play (10th percentile), Indiana’s 5% havoc rate (14th percentile).

• Indiana generated 5 QB pressures, none of which resulted in QB hits. Maryland’s pass-blocking is ranked 37th nationally by PFF. Maryland generated 20 QB pressures on Indiana QBs.

• Tayven Jackson is the 3rd-most pressured QB in the Big Ten but the 4th-least blitzed QB. 

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