Week 6: On the Indiana OL

How bad has Indiana's offensive line been before heading into the Big Ten East season?

Indiana finally confirmed the suspicions that college football analytics unanimously conveyed about the program when it lost to Nebraska on Saturday. The Hoosiers had, stick with me, found ways to win throughout their first three games, and the Week 1 win over (potential Big Ten West champion?) Illinois and the second half against Cincinnati were carrying the hopes against those analytics for Indiana fans. That is all lost now, as Indiana failed to both capitalize on statistical advantages detailed in the last Bite-Sized Bison and appear like a football team capable of winning anymore games on the schedule.

As the game approached, the best matchup on the field was between Indiana’s defense and Nebraska’s offense, but, as I said on CrimsonCast and in my preview newsletter last week, I was curious about the worst-on-worst matchup of Indiana’s offensive line against Nebraska’s statistically atrocious defense.

The unit looked better against Nebraska than it did against Cincinnati, certainly; however, it stacked 290 total yards against a defense that, with this game included, allows 469 per game. They ran for 67 yards against a defense which — again, with this game included — allows 200 per game. Even averaging it out, since Indiana doesn’t run as much as other teams, the Hoosiers averaged 2.9 yards per rush against a defense that allows 5.4.

If you watch Indiana Football every Saturday, you are watching one of the most ineffective offensive lines in FBS play every week. The data supports this assertion.

How bad has Indiana’s offensive line been?

Let’s begin with some quick statistics in a vacuum that boggle the mind.

• Connor Bazelak has the second-most dropbacks lasting less than 2.5 seconds due to defensive pressures in the nation. Time in the pocket can be dictated by many things, such as play design, quarterback improvisation, etc., but 33 of Bazelak’s 144 dropbacks of fewer than 2.5 seconds are due to defenders penetrating the pocket. That is the third-most in the nation.

• Of the offensive linemen with at least 200 snaps — for Indiana, this includes Tim Weaver, Zach Carpenter, Caleb Murphy, Kahlil Benson, Parker Hanna, Mike Katic, and Luke Haggard — four Hoosiers rank in the bottom-11 in the Big Ten, according to PFF. Expand this to the entire FBS, and those four Hoosiers rank 66th-worst (Zach Carpenter), 44th-worst (Tim Weaver), 33rd-worst (Parker Hanna), and absolute worst (Caleb Murphy). 

• Parker Hanna has allowed the most defensive pressures in the nation, with 29, and Caleb Murphy has allowed the 10th-most, with 17. 

• Of Big Ten running backs with at least 30 carries, Shaun Shivers and Josh Henderson are tied for 5th-worst in the conference with 4.3 yards per attempt. Henderson has gained 130 of his 173 yards after contact. 

• Indiana has allowed the 15th-most tackles for loss (34.0) and the 44th-most sacks (12.0) in the nation. 

• The Hoosiers have also dropped to 105th in the country in available offensive yards, earning just 32% of the yards between starting field position and the endzone.

If the above statistics weren’t enough to show this, Indiana’s offensive line has officially bottomed out six years into Darren Hiller’s tenure as the position coach. The following table shows the grades in both pass and run blocking that PFF gave the Indiana offensive line under Hiller.

(For nostalgia’s sake, Indiana’s offensive line was ranked 8th in pass blocking and 14th in run blocking in 2015, when the Hoosiers went to the Pinstripe Bowl.)

For anyone who has watched Indiana closely in the last handful of seasons, it’s no secret that any winning the Hoosiers have done in that span has come in spite of its offensive line. But what is surprising is how poorly Indiana has pass blocked under Hiller, who coached nationally ranked top-30 (USF in 2016), top-40 (Cincinnati in 2015), and top-5 (Cincinnati in 2014) pass blocking offensive lines in the recent years before he arrived in Bloomington, albeit against AAC opponents (just four opponent pass rushes were graded in the top-50 in 2014). 

One could glance at the individuals along the IU offensive line between 2017 and 2019 and glamorize the past production in Hiller’s first few years. Carry-overs from Kevin Wilson’s tenure, such as Wes Martin, Coy Cronk, Hunter Littlejohn, Brandon Knight, and Mackenzie Nworah, are coveted cogs of units that were, according to PFF grades, largely average-to-below average. Many remembered names were a part of the 2019 offensive line — Caleb Jones, Harry Crider, Hunter Littlejohn, Simon Stepaniak, DaVondre Love, Matthew Bedford, Mackenzie Nworah —  that Kalen DeBoer schemed around to create an offense Indiana fans will remember for years to come. These are the most talented and productive offensive linemen of Hiller’s tenure, which began in 2017.

Starters above are determined by the players with the most snaps recorded at each position during each season. Each value is that individual starter’s PFF offensive grade, while the entire bar for each season is the combined grades for the unit (max 500).

Then, recruiting misses began to take their toll, misses like Aidan Rafferty, Nick Marozas, and Antoine Whitner, leaving massive holes in the recruiting schedule so that now, Indiana is bringing in offensive linemen through the transfer portal as stop gaps. Dylan Powell graded out as a below-average interior lineman; Zach Carpenter has graded dismally (see above) since arriving from Ann Arbor; Parker Hanna was graded terribly at West Texas A&M and unsurprisingly has done the same at Indiana; and Luke Haggard has improved but is the best offensive lineman in a unit that has one starter-caliber player sidelined with a torn ACL. 

The rest were recruits who were not highly touted and were developed into sub-par Big Ten talents, such as Tim Weaver, Mike Katic, and Caleb Murphy (who was recruited as a DE and TE) tasked as Band-Aids in a high-stakes 2022 season, while promising recruits like Kahlil Benson, Josh Sales, and Luke Wiginton work to become Big Ten field-ready without any proof that Hiller can produce those types of players. 

Is this only an Indiana problem? To some extent, yes. Since 2017, Indiana is the only program in the Big Ten to reside in the bottom half of the conference in both pass and run blocking, according to PFF grades. The Hoosiers have peaked at seventh in both categories. And if it wasn’t for Iowa’s incompetence in pass blocking this season, Indiana would hold a sizable lead for last place in both categories so far in 2022.

What’s the path for success in the future?

There is little immediate optimism to find here. However, there is some! Sticking with the same metric of PFF grades for the sake of continuity, the 2016 offensive line is a good group to study for an idea of the talent and production Indiana might need to be competitive in the trenches in the Big Ten.

It doesn’t need to be a group of five solid players like 2015 was — Jason Spriggs, Wes Martin/Jacob Bailey, Jake Reed, Dan Feeney, and Dimitric Camiel. They all graded far above average as individuals that season. But it can be just a couple contributors who grade anywhere near those marks and carry an offensive line, such as Wes Martin and Dan Feeney in 2016. It was far from perfect, with Wes Rogers, Danny Friend, Jacob Bailey and a younger Brandon Knight grading around average-to-below average. 

Cronk allowed fewer defensive pressures in that season (28), as the team leader, as Parker Hanna has in four games this year (29). Richard Lagow was under pressure on 25% of his dropbacks in 2016, while Bazelak has been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks in 2022. Despite this, Bazelak grades far better than Lagow when under pressure. The offensive line doesn’t need to be perfect; it just needs to be out of contention for worst in the Big Ten — worst in the nation!

Offensive line must be recruited and developed. The talent does not come through the transfer portal. It will take years for Indiana to build itself out of the bottom half of the conference, but to happen in the next few years, it, obviously, must be the several promising players on the roster already — like Josh Sales, Kahlil Benson, DJ Moore, Luke Wiginton, Bray Lynch, Cam Knight, and Carter Smith. The Hoosier coaching staff must do whatever it can to put those players in the best positions possible if it wants any sort of offense before the 2028 Olympic Games. 

What can Indiana do to fix this in 2022?

Very little. Indiana just played one of the most beatable Big Ten defensive fronts that they’ll see all season and, as already stated, failed to take advantage. It only gets more difficult from here. According to ESPN SP+, the defenses left on Indiana’s schedule are No. 11 (Michigan), No. 24 (Maryland), No. 77 (Rutgers), No. 5 (Penn State), No. 8 (Ohio State), No. 37 (Michigan State), and No. 20 (Purdue) in the nation. Nebraska is No. 63. 

It’s already known that Indiana will not do much winning for the remainder of the season, so finding the flashes and building development there would be optimal. 

These are flashes like Josh Sales, who has 16 snaps in pass blocking opportunities and has graded very well in those chances. Pairing him with Haggard, who has also graded well this year in pass blocking, as two tackles defending Bazelak in a pass-heavy offense wouldn’t be a bad start. Kahlil Benson, the prized Mississippi recruiting victory, through 147 pass blocking snaps, has a near-average PFF pass blocking grade at right guard. 

Cam Knight has three snaps because he hasn’t been healthy, but getting him in at center more often would aid in his development. Vinny Fiacable and Bray Lynch have a combined 16 snaps as well. None of the others have seen the field. Others might not be ready, but most other ideas are better than trotting the worst line in the conference on the field every Saturday.